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中国可再生能源:下调 2026 年中国新增光伏装机至 220 吉瓦(同比 - 24%)-大型发电集团因收益下降持谨慎态度-China Renewable Energy Cutting PRC 2026E New Solar Capacity to 220GW -24 YoY as Big IPP Groups Look Cautious amid Reduced Returns
2025-12-23 02:56
Summary of China Renewable Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Renewable Energy** sector, specifically the solar energy market in China. Key Points Solar Capacity Forecasts - The forecast for **PRC solar installation** in 2025 has been slightly raised to **290GW** from **280GW** based on ongoing projects, while the forecast for **2026** has been lowered to **220GW**, representing a **24% year-over-year decline** from **250GW** [1][2] - Major Independent Power Producers (IPPs) like **China Huaneng Group** and **National Energy Investment Group** are cautious about solar capacity additions during the **15th 5-year period (2026-2030)** due to profitability issues from recent projects [1] Profitability Concerns - Recent solar projects have been less profitable due to **tariff cuts** and high **depreciation expenses** from installations made in **2022-2023** when module prices were elevated [1][2] - The average on-grid tariff has decreased significantly, impacting the financial viability of new installations [2] Market Dynamics - The solar sector is noted for its **cooperative attitude** among enterprises, which is seen as a positive aspect amidst market challenges [1] - There is a potential negative impact on **Energy Storage System (ESS)** demand due to the anticipated reduction in solar installations in **2026** [2] Module Pricing and Production - **China's solar module export value** decreased by **16.8% year-over-year** to **US$21,873 million** in the first 11 months of 2025, with a slight recovery in November showing an **18% year-over-year increase** [3] - The **module production volume** is expected to decline further, with a projected drop of **10.9% year-over-year** in December due to a lack of domestic installation rush [6] Inverter Market - **China's inverter export value** increased by **26% year-over-year** in November, with significant demand from regions like **Oceania** and **Europe** [7] Company-Specific Insights Preferred Companies - The report expresses a preference for companies involved in **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)** and **polysilicon production**, specifically naming **Sungrow**, **Deye**, **Tongwei**, and **GCL** as favorable investment opportunities [1] Valuation and Risks - **Ginlong Technologies** has a target price of **Rmb55.00** per share based on a DCF valuation, with a WACC of **10.1%** [19] - **Ningbo Deye Technology** has a target price of **Rmb102.0** per share, with a WACC of **8.4%** [21] - **Sungrow Power Supply** has a target price of **Rmb240.00**, with a WACC of **7.0%** [23] - **Tongwei** has a target price of **Rmb30.00** per share, with a WACC of **9.2%** [25] Risks - Key risks for these companies include lower-than-expected solar installations, increased competition, and potential trade tariffs against Chinese products [20][22][24][26] Conclusion - The solar energy market in China is facing challenges with profitability and installation forecasts, but there are still opportunities in specific segments like ESS and polysilicon production. The cautious outlook from major IPPs indicates a need for strategic investment in the sector.
Green Industry, Bright Future - Deye 2025 Dubai Distributor Summit Successfully Held
Prnewswire· 2025-12-05 05:00
Core Insights - Deye successfully hosted the "Green Industry, Bright Future — Deye 2025 Dubai Distributor Summit" in November 2025, gathering over 200 partners to discuss clean energy transition [1] - Chairman Mr. Zhang Hejun emphasized Deye's commitment to technological innovation and the importance of emerging markets in the company's global strategy [2] Product Innovations - Deye showcased its upgraded product matrix across four major business divisions, enhancing its full-chain competitiveness [3] - The Inverter Division presented sixth-generation inverters with higher conversion efficiency and the new BK Series micro-storage system for residential applications [4] - The Energy Storage Division introduced a comprehensive solution lineup, including high-safety battery series for residential users and utility-grade outdoor cabinet solutions [5] - The HVAC Division highlighted climate-adaptive technologies, including high-efficiency heat pumps and solar air conditioners designed for extreme environments [6] - The upgraded Deye Cloud Platform features AI-driven digital energy services, enhancing monitoring and remote operations [7] Global Marketing and Service Enhancements - Deye introduced an upgraded marketing and service framework to improve online-offline coordination and regional support, aiming to strengthen global collaboration [8] - The summit concluded with a Partner Awards Ceremony, recognizing long-standing partnerships and shared achievements [9]