Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) is experiencing revenue weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation impacting consumer sentiment and growth expectations [1] - The company has seen a decline in package shipping volumes, with average daily volumes down 3.8% year over year in the first half of 2025 [2] - UPS has made a strategic decision to reduce its business with Amazon, aiming for a volume reduction of over 50% by June 2026, which is expected to keep near-term volumes subdued [2] Financial Performance - Total revenues at UPS fell 1.7% year over year in the first six months of 2025, driven by sluggish volumes [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS' earnings has been revised downward over the past 60 days for the third quarter, fourth quarter, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 [11] - UPS shares have declined over 30% in 2025, underperforming its industry [5][9] Market Conditions - The trade-related economic uncertainty is contributing to UPS' challenges, with no revenue or operating profit guidance provided for 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainty [3] - Volatility in the U.S. stock market is expected to persist, affecting UPS' top line despite cost-cutting efforts [3] Competitive Landscape - FedEx, a rival of UPS, is also facing weak demand and is implementing cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and operational reshuffling [4] - FedEx's DRIVE program has resulted in significant cost savings, indicating a competitive response to the current market conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is facing significant challenges including tariff-induced economic uncertainty, inflation, supply-chain disruptions, weak freight demand, and geopolitical changes [1][2][3] Economic and Trade Environment - The current U.S. administration is adopting protectionist measures that restrict international trade, impacting major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China [2] - Trade tensions are escalating due to retaliatory tariffs, contributing to market volatility and fears of an economic slowdown [3] Company Performance and Outlook - Analysts have turned bearish on UPS, with earnings per share estimates declining for the first and second quarters of 2025 and for the full years 2025 and 2026 [4] - UPS shares have declined by 23% over the past year, underperforming compared to the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry and rival FedEx [5] Dividend Policy - UPS announced a 0.6% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $1.64 per share, but concerns about the sustainability of this dividend arise due to a high payout ratio of 84% [8][9] - Free cash flow has decreased from a peak of $9 billion in 2022, with projections of $5.7 billion for 2025, which is only slightly above expected dividend payments of $5.5 billion [10][11] Revenue Projections - UPS anticipates an 8.5% decrease in average daily volumes for 2025 compared to 2024, driven by a slowdown in online sales and global manufacturing activity [12] - The company expects consolidated revenues of $89 billion for 2025, significantly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $94.6 billion [13] Valuation Concerns - UPS stock is considered expensive, trading at a forward sales multiple of 1.14, which is higher than its peer group [16] - The company's current valuation and near-term risks, including tariff-related uncertainties and dividend sustainability, suggest that buying the stock may be premature [17]

Group 1 - Air Transport Services (ATSG) reported quarterly earnings of $0.40 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.35 per share, and showing an increase from $0.18 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 14.29% [1] - The company posted revenues of $516.79 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.78%, although this is a slight decrease from year-ago revenues of $517.04 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, ATSG has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2 - The stock's immediate price movement will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the sustainability of earnings expectations [3][4] - ATSG shares have increased by approximately 1.6% since the beginning of the year, compared to a 1.2% gain in the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.27 on revenues of $503.11 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.14 on revenues of $2.08 billion [7] Group 3 - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo sector is currently in the bottom 11% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact ATSG's stock performance [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5][6] - The current estimate revisions trend for ATSG is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting the stock is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6]