Citadel founder Ken Griffin delivered a stark message to global leaders at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday, identifying unchecked sovereign debt—not private market speculation—as the single greatest threat to financial stability in 2026.A Crisis Of Public ExpenditureSpeaking on a CNBC panel alongside BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink and ECB President Christine Lagarde, Griffin rejected historical comparisons to the private sector excess that triggered the Great Depression.Instead, he pointed t ...

Economic Environment - At the start of 2025, concerns about investing in China were heightened due to a new protectionist US administration and instability in China's real estate market [1] - By the end of 2025, many fears were deemed overblown as the Chinese government focused on economic stimulation, leading to increased buybacks by public companies [2] Company Performance - ByteDance, after selling a majority stake in its US TikTok operations, is now valued between $350 billion and $370 billion, marking a significant increase in its worth [2] - Hedge funds that invested in China saw substantial returns, with Bridgewater's China Total Returns fund generating a 34.2% return and Tekne Capital achieving over 50% [3] Investment Strategies - Kothari's firm, which manages $1.5 billion, invested in Chinese companies like DiDi Global and GDS, capitalizing on the low valuations of strong companies amid headwinds [4] - China-focused funds performed well, with Pinpoint's strategy returning over 24% and George Jiang's Golden China fund close to 33% [5] Market Trends - The average return for China-focused funds was nearly 18%, surpassing the industry average of 10.7% [6] - Investors are closely monitoring the evolving US-China relationship, particularly regarding trade agreements related to chips and potential geopolitical tensions [6]

Core Insights - Rokos Capital achieved a 21% return in 2025, following a nearly 31% gain in 2024, indicating strong performance in the macro hedge fund sector [1][5] - The macro hedge fund industry had a robust year in 2025, driven by geopolitical factors such as tariff policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine [2] - Bridgewater Associates reported its most profitable year ever, with a 33% gain in its flagship Pure Alpha fund, while Discovery Capital saw an increase of over 35% [2] Performance Summary - Rokos Capital: 21% return in 2025, following 31% in 2024 [1][5] - Bridgewater Asia Total Return: 36.9% [4] - Discovery Capital: 35.6% [4] - Bridgewater China: 34.2% [4] - Bridgewater Pure Alpha: 33% [4] - D.E. Shaw Oculus: 28.2% [4] - EDL: 27.1% [4] - Bridgewater All Weather: 20.4% [4] - Brevan Howard Emerging Markets: 15.4% [4] - Taula: 11% [4] - Brevan Howard Alpha Strategies: 8% [4] - Brevan Howard Master: 0.8% [4] Industry Trends - The macro hedge fund sector is expected to continue performing well, with reports indicating that protectionist policies will create varied economic conditions, leading to more trading opportunities for skilled managers [4] - Chris Rokos is noted for taking on most of the risk within his firm and has raised fees to capture a quarter of trading profits, reflecting a shift back to a model dominated by star traders [3][4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **European Steel Industry**, highlighting significant policy shifts and market dynamics as of November 2025 [6][7][8]. Core Insights - **Policy Changes**: The EU has proposed to halve import quotas and double safeguard duties to 50%, marking a strong protectionist stance. This may lead to additional policy tailwinds with the upcoming CBAM review [6][7]. - **Market Conditions**: Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) price gains have been primarily policy-driven, while end-user consumption remains weak in construction and manufacturing sectors [6][7]. Company Analysis Carbon Steel - **Preferred Companies**: - **ArcelorMittal**: Offers the greatest operating leverage to policy tightening due to lower utilization rates, allowing for volume growth and import displacement [9]. - **voestalpine**: Maintains resilient EBITDA/t during downturns and has manageable decarbonization risks, enhancing free cash flow [9]. - **Least Preferred**: - **Salzgitter**: Faces intensified cash spending on decarbonization initiatives, with current valuations lacking a safety margin [9]. - **thyssenkrupp**: Trading at a premium to its sum-of-the-parts valuation, with execution risks in portfolio simplification [9]. Stainless Steel - **Preferred Companies**: - **Acerinox**: Strong near-term earnings profile due to US exposure and high-margin alloys business, with attractive growth prospects from US expansion [10]. - **Aperam**: Diversified business model but faces challenges from weak European demand [10]. - **Least Preferred**: - **Outokumpu**: Lacks exposure beyond stainless steel, leading to lagging earnings momentum [10]. Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers for steel include **construction** and **automotive** sectors, with significant contributions from various regions [19][20]. - **Automotive Demand**: New vehicle registrations in Western Europe, the US, and China are tracked, indicating varying trends across these markets [27][28][29]. Supply Dynamics - **Production Trends**: Global steel production is shifting towards Asia, with significant output from China, the EU, and the US [17][66][67]. - **Inventory Levels**: Steel inventories across the value chain are monitored, with implications for pricing and supply stability [70][71]. Trade Flows - **Import Quotas**: The report details EU steel and stainless steel quotas by product, indicating utilization rates and import sources [88][91]. - **Net Trade Flows**: China remains a significant player in steel exports, with detailed statistics on monthly exports to the EU [76][77]. Economic Indicators - **Steel Pricing**: Historical pricing trends for EU and China HRC are analyzed, with implications for gross profit margins [97][98]. - **EBITDA Trends**: The report discusses EBITDA per tonne projections and historical performance, providing insights into profitability trends in the steel sector [115][116]. Conclusion - The European steel industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by policy changes, market dynamics, and shifting demand patterns. Key players like ArcelorMittal and voestalpine are positioned favorably, while others face challenges that could impact their valuations and operational resilience [6][9][10].

Industry Trend - A new wave of Chinese low-cost innovation is coming [1] Strategic Response - Knee-jerk protectionism in the name of security or safety would be a mistake for the rest of the world [1]

Government & Policy - National governments and the European Commission possess potential measures to safeguard the continent's manufacturers [1] - The "nuclear option" for protecting manufacturers remains unused [1]

Industry Impact - A protection upgrade that Brazil wants on brazilwood trees would create challenges for both the trees and musicians [1]

Tucked into President Trump’s trade deals formalizing higher tariffs on goods from Asia this week are provisions for a global economic frontier the US wants to stay free of protectionism: digital commerce https://t.co/AnKYRpKFA6 ...

Trade Relations - US President Donald Trump terminated trade negotiations as punishment for a Canadian-made television ad [1] - The ad used Ronald Reagan's words to explain the dangers of protectionism [1] - Canada can ill afford to provoke America's president [1]

Trade Relations & Tariffs - Tariffs on Canada are viewed as a tax on Americans, negatively impacting job creation and increasing inflation [3][4] - Free trade with Canada creates more jobs and opportunities in both the US and Canada [3] - Ontario is a major trading partner for the US, being the number one partner for 15 states and number two for 12 others [5] - The speaker advocates for an "Amcan Fortress," emphasizing the close alliance and trading partnership between the US and Canada [8] Trade Actions & Negotiations - Ontario, as a large purchaser of alcohol, is considering removing US liquor products from shelves until a fair trade deal is reached [9][10] - Ontario is onshoring products to reduce reliance on the US due to the ongoing trade war [11] - The speaker is actively communicating with US governors, senators, and congressmen to advocate for a trade deal [17] Advertisement & Public Opinion - The advertisement aimed to inform Americans about the harmful effects of tariffs and protectionism [2] - The advertisement generated significant media attention, with over 114 billion (11.4% billion) impressions worldwide [12] - The speaker defends the use of Ronald Reagan's words in the ad, stating they were taken from the public domain [6] Ontario's Economic Role - Ontario is described as the engine of Canada, with 15 million (1.5% million) people [14] - Ontario provides energy to 15 million (1.5% million) homes in New York, Minnesota, and Michigan [17] - Ontario possesses significant rare earth minerals and is willing to supply them to the US [15][16]