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正力新能:Higher earnings visibility amid better clientmix, possible battery price hike-20260131
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-31 00:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Zenergy, with a target price of HK$18.00, indicating a potential upside of 103.4% from the current price of HK$8.85 [3][6]. Core Insights - Zenergy's FY25E net profit forecast has been revised up by 4% to RMB591 million due to a better product mix and expected revenue growth from GAC Toyota, which is anticipated to become the largest revenue contributor [1][6]. - The FY26E net profit forecast has also been increased by 4% to RMB1.36 billion, driven by improved client mix and potential battery price hikes [1][6]. - The company is expected to achieve solid earnings visibility in the second half of FY25, with a projected operating profit of RMB302 million and a net profit of RMB370 million for that period [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB8.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.8%, while FY26E revenue is expected to reach RMB14.6 billion, a growth of 77.6% [2][10]. - Gross margin is projected to improve from 18.0% in FY25E to 18.5% in FY26E, supported by a better product mix and higher average selling prices [2][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB1.88 billion by FY27E, with a corresponding EPS of 72.27 RMB cents [2][10]. Earnings Revision - The revenue forecast for FY25E has been increased by 6.9% to RMB8.2 billion, while FY26E revenue has been revised up by 8% to RMB14.6 billion [8][9]. - The net profit estimates for FY25E and FY26E have been adjusted upwards by 3.8% and 3.9% respectively, reflecting the positive outlook for the company's performance [8][9]. Market Performance - Zenergy's market capitalization stands at HK$22.61 billion, with an average turnover of HK$20.2 million over the past three months [4]. - The stock has shown a 7.0% increase over the past month, although it has declined by 13.2% over the past six months [5].