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大中华区媒体 - 行业变迁与估值调整-Greater China Media-Industry Shifts and Valuation Adjustments
2025-10-14 14:44
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **SMID (small-mid cap) Internet/Media sector in China** and reflects recent secular changes in the industry [2][4]. Key Companies and Ratings - **Damai**: Maintained an Overweight (OW) rating; price target raised from HK$0.58 to HK$1.20, reflecting a 107% increase [3][15]. - **37 Interactive Entertainment (37IE)**: Maintained OW rating; price target increased from RMB 23.00 to RMB 25.90, a 13% rise [4][15]. - **Maoyan**: Downgraded from OW to Equal-weight (EW); price target adjusted from HK$7.50 to HK$8.00, a 7% increase [6][15]. - **JOYY**: Maintained EW rating; price target raised from US$40.00 to US$62.00, a 55% increase [4][15]. - **IQIYI**: Maintained EW rating; price target increased from US$2.10 to US$2.30, a 10% rise [4][15]. - **Focus Media**: Preferred over Weibo due to expected growth from self-help initiatives [6]. Core Insights - **IP Derivatives Demand**: There is a growing demand for IP derivatives in China, with Damai positioned to benefit from its domestic sub-licensing business [3]. - **Long Video and Live-Streaming**: These sectors are entering a more favorable policy environment, with valuations currently below historical levels. Price targets for JOYY and HUYA have been lifted due to improving trends [4]. - **Gaming Sector**: Smaller game companies are experiencing a re-rating due to successful new titles, leading to raised earnings forecasts for 2025/26 [5]. - **Film Industry Challenges**: Film companies may face difficulties in re-rating due to muted industry growth and weaker visibility for fundamentals, leading to downgrades for Maoyan and others [6]. Additional Insights - **Branding Advertising**: The branding advertising industry is not expected to recover immediately, but Focus Media is seen as a better investment compared to Weibo due to its strategic initiatives [6]. - **Valuation Adjustments**: The report includes various valuation adjustments for companies based on earnings revisions and shifts to sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methods [15]. Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock price performance over different time frames, indicating significant variances in performance among the companies covered [12]. Conclusion - The SMID Internet/Media sector in China is undergoing significant changes, with varying growth prospects across different segments. Companies like Damai and 37IE are favored for their growth potential, while challenges remain for the film industry and certain live-streaming platforms.
花旗:中国互联网_中国网络游戏行业期刊(2025 年 6 月版)
花旗· 2025-06-23 02:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Century Huatong is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb10.0 based on an 18x 2025E PE, reflecting a 15% premium to the current A-share gaming average of 16x [16] - XD is rated "Hold" with a target price of HK$44, based on a 19x 26E EPS, set at a 20% premium to China's online gaming peers [18] Core Insights - The China Online Gaming Industry is expected to see increased topline visibility and quality earnings growth due to more game companies preparing to launch key titles in 2Q/3Q25, which may lead to re-rating opportunities [1] - Century Huatong is highlighted as a preferred investment choice due to its successful operations of Whiteout Survival and significant revenue size among A-share gaming peers [16] - XD is considered an attractive beta play in a risk-on environment, leveraging its self-development capabilities and unique gaming community platform [1][18] Company-Specific Summaries Century Huatong - Century Huatong's overseas grossing from Kingshot doubled month-over-month in May, generating over US$75 million, indicating strong growth potential [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the performance of its titles, particularly Kingshot and Whiteout Survival, which are projected to contribute to greater topline upside in 2025E [2] 37 Interactive - 37 Interactive is set to launch Soul Land MMO on July 11, with pre-registration exceeding 8 million, indicating strong initial interest [3] Kingnet - Kingnet plans to launch Nobunaga's Ambition overseas on June 18, developed in collaboration with Tanda Games and Koei Tecmo [4] Perfect World - Perfect World is initiating the second beta for Neverness to Everness, with recruitment ongoing until June 17, suggesting potential for further game optimization and upgrades [5] XD - XD launched Etheria: Restart on June 5, achieving over 1 million downloads within two days and ranking in the top 3 for iOS downloads in several countries [6] - The title is expected to generate significant revenue, with estimates suggesting first-month grossing could reach Rmb100 million, with 50% from the US market [6] G-Bits - G-Bits launched Scepter & Sword on May 29, achieving a strong initial ranking in iOS downloads, although its long-term performance remains uncertain due to aging core game titles [8]