Natural Gas Market Overview - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a domestic natural gas storage withdrawal of 144 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending February 13, 2026, which was slightly lower than the expected 149 Bcf draw [2][9] - Natural gas futures experienced a modest increase of approximately 0.4% following the report, as the data was largely in line with market expectations despite ongoing winter demand [3][9] - The total storage deficit remains at about 123 Bcf compared to the five-year average, although strong production levels averaging around 110.2 Bcf/d are limiting price increases [4][9] Production and Supply Dynamics - U.S. dry natural gas production has been robust, averaging around 110.2 Bcf/d, which is helping to offset the storage deficit [4] - Feedgas nominations for liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals are strong, with figures around 19.3 Bcf/d, indicating healthy demand for LNG exports [4] Geopolitical Context - U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that there is "no Plan B for Gaza," highlighting the administration's commitment to its current diplomatic framework as essential for regional stability [5][6] - The U.S. is leading an international initiative to establish a stabilization force and a $5 billion reconstruction fund for Gaza, which is being closely monitored by investors due to its implications for global energy security [6]

Core Insights - The natural gas market experienced a significant surge due to a polar vortex causing extreme cold across the U.S., with futures rising 27% to approximately $3.94 per MMBtu [1][2] Market Dynamics - The recent market volatility marks the largest single-day percentage gain in over a year, driven by traders adjusting to forecasts of prolonged cold weather through the end of January [2] - The severe cold snap is expected to increase residential heating demand to record seasonal highs, putting pressure on an already strained power grid [4] - Despite domestic natural gas production remaining near record levels, the impact of the cold weather is overriding supply fundamentals, leading to a significant price surge [4] Weather Impact - The NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts that Arctic air will keep the central and eastern U.S. in sub-zero temperatures for the next 10 to 14 days, with wind chills potentially dropping to -30°F in the Upper Midwest [3] Investor Focus - Investors are closely monitoring several natural gas-related tickers and ETFs, including: - United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE: UNG) for tracking Henry Hub spot prices - ProShares Ultra Natural Gas (NYSE: BOIL), a 2x leveraged ETF experiencing high trading volume - First Trust Natural Gas ETF (NYSE: FCG), which holds shares of top U.S. producers - EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT), the largest U.S. producer, responsive to cold-weather news - Antero Resources Corp. (NYSE: AR), sensitive to price spikes due to increased Northeast demand - Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE: WMB), a key player in transporting gas to the Northeast [6]

Key Takeaways Global natural gas demand grew just 0.5% in 2025, but the World Bank expects 2% growth in 2026.A rebound is forecasted as Asia Pacific demand recovers and LNG supply expands globally next year. ETFs like UNG and BOIL offer broad or leveraged exposure to natural gas prices and producers.The natural gas market presented a mixed picture in 2025, characterized by divergent regional prices and moderated demand. The U.S. benchmark price surged past $5 per MMBtu in early December for the first time i ...