Company Overview - SPS Commerce is a leading provider of cloud-based supply chain management platforms that enable automation and enhanced visibility for trading partners worldwide [7] - The company leverages a subscription-driven model to deliver scalable solutions for retailers and suppliers, supporting efficient order fulfillment and compliance [7] - SPS Commerce serves a broad customer base, including retailers, suppliers, grocers, distributors, and logistics firms, focusing on optimizing omnichannel order fulfillment and trading partner collaboration [9] Recent Transaction - TRAN Capital Management, L.P. (TCM) sold its entire stake in SPS Commerce, divesting 147,591 shares valued at $15.37 million during the fourth quarter [2][5] - The sale resulted in a net position change of $15.37 million for TCM, reflecting the combined effects of trade activity and price fluctuation [2] - Following the sale, TCM's position in SPS Commerce decreased to 0 shares, representing a 1.84% change in the fund's 13F AUM [5] Market Performance - As of January 21, 2026, SPS Commerce shares were priced at $91.13, down 53.0% over the prior year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 67 percentage points [3] - The company's market capitalization stands at $3.48 billion, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $729.76 million and a net income of $85.06 million [4]

Retail Sales Forecast - The National Retail Federation predicts retail sales in November and December of 2025 will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024, translating to total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion [1] - In comparison, 2024's holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023, reaching $976.1 billion [1] Supply Chain Adaptation - SPS Commerce's latest product announcements indicate that the future of retail supply chains will be defined by the ability to adapt to constant disruption rather than just incremental efficiency gains [2] - SPS believes AI will increasingly serve as the operating system for commerce, orchestrating inventory decisions, demand forecasting, and fulfillment coordination at machine speed [3] AI-Driven Supply Chains - SPS is positioning its network as essential for making AI-driven supply chains viable, with new AI-enabled fulfillment capabilities designed to enhance supplier performance and insights [4] - The company is a founding member of the Commerce Operations Foundation and supports the launch of the Order Network eXchange (onX) [4] Shared Operational Language - The ambition behind onX is to create a shared operational language for orders, inventory, and fulfillment data across commerce and logistics systems, enabling real-time data flow between various platforms [5] - This initiative aims to close the gap between selling channels and fulfillment execution, which has historically limited visibility and automation [5] Omnichannel Retail Expectations - As omnichannel retail becomes a baseline expectation, consumers no longer distinguish between ecommerce, stores, marketplaces, or drop-ship models, demanding speed and accuracy across all platforms [6] - For suppliers, this translates into managing more order types across multiple systems with little tolerance for error [6] Market Trends and Solutions - SPS Commerce is uniquely positioned to identify trends shaping the supply chain due to its access to wholesale and point-of-sale data from both retailers and suppliers [7] - The company designs solutions to help partners navigate changes in the supply chain rapidly [7]

Anson has taken a stake in SPS Commerce and is pushing the maker of retail supply chain management software to consider ousting its CEO and put itself up for sale https://t.co/AyeiMo1wUx ...

SPS Commerce reports trouble in its revenue recovery platform, which is used by Amazon third-party sellers. ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Companies Involved - **Workday**: Adjusted fiscal year 2028 targets, subscription growth expectations lowered to approximately 13%, and initiated a $5 billion stock buyback plan - **Snowflake**: Under new CEO leadership, launched new products and integrated generative AI, notably the Cortex Search product - **Intuit**: Aims to achieve a 20% overall growth rate by 2030, focusing on mid-sized enterprise ERP market opportunities and comprehensive tax solutions - **Vertex**: Utilizes AI to enhance its tax content database and automate product classification and tax rate matching processes Core Insights and Arguments - **Workday's Adjustments**: Set fiscal year 2028 subscription growth at about 13% and a non-GAAP profit margin target of 35%, emphasizing the value of agent computing technology for clients [3][4] - **Snowflake's Innovations**: New products launched under the new CEO have received positive market feedback, particularly the Cortex Search, which won the Morgan Stanley IT Department's Annual Innovation Award [5] - **Intuit's Growth Strategy**: Plans to return to a 20% growth rate by 2030, driven by opportunities in the mid-sized enterprise ERP market and a significant expansion in the tax assistance market from $5 billion to $35 billion [6][15] - **AI's Role in Software**: General AI enhances existing software capabilities rather than replacing them, as demonstrated by Intuit and Workday's integration of AI into their solutions [9] Additional Important Insights - **Investor Focus on AI**: Investors should pay more attention to the development of backend AI technologies, as companies like Intuit and Workday are leveraging data and AI to enhance operational efficiency [2] - **Workday's New Products**: Launched around 14 new products, including performance and cost agents, with a focus on ROI verification to ensure client value [11] - **Vertex's AI Utilization**: Vertex's proprietary tax content database, containing over 1 billion rules, is enhanced by AI to automate processes, saving time for tax professionals [17] - **Intuit's Platform Integration**: Enhanced product offerings and user interfaces, along with AI integration, have led to a 22% increase in online service attachment rates when clients engage with live experts [7] - **Market Sentiment on Workday's AI**: Previous negative market sentiment regarding Workday's AI business may shift positively in the next 6 to 12 months due to new flexible pricing models and positive client feedback [14] - **Future Growth Projections**: Analysts predict Workday could achieve over $20 in free cash flow per share by fiscal year 2028, even with a growth slowdown to 12% [12][13]

Company Overview - SPS Commerce (SPSC) shares increased by 5.2% to close at $129.43, following a period of 17.1% loss over the past four weeks, indicating a significant recovery backed by strong trading volume [1][2] Competitive Position - The company's recent stock price rise is attributed to a competitive product portfolio, enhanced collaboration with vendors, retailers, and grocers, as well as strategic acquisitions including Vision33's SAP Business One integration technology, Traverse Systems, and SupplyPike [2] Financial Performance Expectations - SPS Commerce is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.85 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.2%. Revenue is expected to reach $179.53 million, marking a 20% increase compared to the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Estimate Trends - The consensus EPS estimate for SPS Commerce has remained stable over the last 30 days, suggesting that the stock's price movement may not sustain without changes in earnings estimate revisions [4][5] Industry Context - SPS Commerce is part of the Zacks Business - Services industry, where another company, Crawford & Company B (CRD.B), experienced a 2.1% increase in stock price, closing at $10.56, despite a negative return of 11.3% over the past month [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their above-average financial growth, but identifying those with true potential can be challenging [1] Group 1: Company Overview - SPS Commerce (SPSC) is highlighted as a recommended growth stock with a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] - The company provides supply chain software services to businesses, making it a strong growth pick [3] Group 2: Earnings Growth - SPS Commerce has a historical EPS growth rate of 20.1%, with projected EPS growth of 11% this year, surpassing the industry average of 9.5% [4] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - The year-over-year cash flow growth for SPS Commerce is 22.6%, exceeding the industry average of 14.6% [5] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 21.2%, compared to the industry average of 8% [6] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - There have been upward revisions in current-year earnings estimates for SPS Commerce, with a 1.3% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past month [8] Group 5: Investment Positioning - SPS Commerce holds a Zacks Rank of 2 and a Growth Score of B, positioning it well for potential outperformance in the growth stock category [10]