Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on March 2, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectat ...

StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) ended the recent trading session at $16.75, demonstrating a -1.09% change from the preceding day's closing price. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.84%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.34%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 1.43%. Heading into today, shares of the company had gained 11.64% over the past month, outpacing the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 1.75% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.8%.Investors will be eagerly watching for the p ...

Core Viewpoint - StoneCo Ltd. is a prominent financial technology company in Brazil, recognized for its innovative payment solutions and strong market position in the Latin American fintech sector, with a positive outlook from analysts and investors [1][3]. Market Performance - StoneCo's stock closed at $16.59, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the previous session, outperforming major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2]. - Over the past month, the stock has surged by 9.7%, significantly exceeding the gains of the Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 [2]. - The current trading price is $16.99, with a recent price change of 2.41%, and the stock has fluctuated between $16.38 and $17.04 today [4]. Earnings Projections - Analysts project earnings of $0.5 per share for the upcoming earnings report on March 2, 2026, indicating a year-over-year growth of 28.21% [3]. - Revenue is expected to reach $749 million, representing a 21.29% increase compared to the same quarter last year, highlighting the company's growth trajectory [3]. Market Capitalization and Trading Volume - StoneCo has a market capitalization of approximately $4.55 billion and a trading volume of 5,509,215 shares, reinforcing its status as a key player in the fintech sector [4]. Analyst Price Target - Banco Santander has set a new price target for StoneCo at $21, suggesting a potential increase of 23.6% from its current trading price, indicating strong investor confidence [1].

Core Viewpoint - StoneCo Ltd. has been downgraded by Santander from "Outperform" to "Neutral," indicating a more cautious outlook on the stock despite recent positive performance in the market [1][6]. Company Performance - At the time of the downgrade, StoneCo's stock was priced at $16.99, closing at $16.59, which represents a 1.9% increase from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500 and Dow [2]. - Over the past month, StoneCo's stock has surged by 9.7%, significantly outperforming the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 0.49% and the S&P 500's increase of 0.38% [3][6]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $4.55 billion, with a trading volume of 5,509,215 shares, and the stock has fluctuated between a low of $16.38 and a high of $17.04 on the day of reporting [5]. Upcoming Earnings Report - Investors are anticipating StoneCo's upcoming earnings report on March 2, 2026, with analysts predicting earnings of $0.5 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 28.21% [4]. - The consensus estimate for revenue is $749 million, indicating a 21.29% increase from the same quarter last year [4].

Group 1 - StoneCo Ltd. will release its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results on March 2, 2026, after market close [1] - A conference call to discuss the results will be held on the same day at 5:00 PM ET [1] - The company will initiate its Quiet Period related to the financial results on February 16, 2026 [3] Group 2 - Stone is a leading provider of financial technology and software solutions that enable merchants to conduct commerce seamlessly across multiple channels [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong operational execution in the last two quarters, shares in StoneCo (STNE) have decreased by approximately 12.7% since late August 2025 [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - StoneCo has demonstrated strong operational execution over the last two quarters [1]. - The decline in share price of 12.7% indicates potential market concerns despite operational improvements [1]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - The analysis is conducted by an equity research analyst focusing on undercovered stocks in Brazil and Latin America, with occasional insights on global large caps [1]. - The analyst has a beneficial long position in StoneCo shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2].

Core Viewpoint - StoneCo Ltd. announces the resignation of CEO Mr. Pedro Zinner effective March 2026, citing personal reasons, and highlights the company's strategic evolution during his tenure [1][2][3] Leadership Transition - Mr. Zinner has been CEO for three years, leading significant strategic changes including divestment of non-core assets and transitioning Stone into a comprehensive financial services platform [2] - The Board expresses gratitude for Mr. Zinner's leadership and plans to nominate him for election to the Board of Directors, with an expectation of him becoming Chairman [3] - Mr. Mateus Scherer, currently CFO, will be appointed as the new CEO effective March 2026, ensuring continuity in leadership and strategy [4] - Mr. Diego Salgado will take on expanded responsibilities as the new CFO and Investor Relations Officer [5] - Ms. Lia Matos will conclude her role in the company but will remain as an advisor, with her responsibilities being reorganized internally [6] - Mr. Sandro Bassili is expected to become the Chief Operating Officer following the Linx divestiture [7] Company Overview - StoneCo is a leading provider of financial technology solutions, enabling merchants to conduct commerce across multiple channels and grow their businesses through payments, banking, credit, and software solutions [8]

Core Insights - The fintech industry is highly competitive, with PayPal and StoneCo as notable players, each representing different market strategies and growth potentials [1][2]. PayPal Overview - PayPal is focusing on four strategic growth pillars: enhancing checkout, scaling omni-channel services, growing Venmo, and improving profitability for payment service providers (PSPs) [3]. - Venmo's revenue increased over 20% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, with total payment volume (TPV) rising 14% [3]. - Branded checkout is a significant growth driver, with over 60% of branded volume in the U.S. processed through PayPal's enhanced platform [4]. - PayPal is investing in AI-driven e-commerce through partnerships with companies like OpenAI and Google Cloud to enhance shopping experiences [5]. - The company operates a stablecoin, PYUSD, and allows U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency for payments, ending Q3 2025 with $9 billion in cash and equivalents [6]. - Despite a 6% increase in TPV, payment transactions fell 5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, indicating challenges in user engagement [7]. StoneCo Overview - StoneCo reported an 18% year-over-year growth in adjusted net income for Q3 2025, achieving a consolidated return on equity (ROE) of 24% [8]. - The company is divesting non-core assets to focus on financial services, targeting a total addressable market of BRL 100 billion [9]. - StoneCo's MSMB client base grew 17.6% year-over-year to 4.7 million, with total payment volume increasing by 11% [11]. - Active banking clients rose 22% to 3.5 million, with client deposits increasing by 32%, providing a stable funding source [12]. - StoneCo's disciplined approach to pricing and credit provisioning has resulted in a 33% ROE in financial services, indicating strong profitability [13]. Comparative Analysis - StoneCo shows greater upside potential compared to PayPal, benefiting from growth in MSMB clients and the adoption of PIX transactions [10]. - PayPal's growth is driven by Venmo and branded checkout, but it faces declining transaction engagement [10]. - Earnings estimates for PayPal indicate year-over-year increases of 14.8% and 9.7% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [14]. - In contrast, StoneCo's earnings are expected to grow by 25.9% and 15.5% for the same years [17]. - Valuation metrics show PayPal trading at a forward P/E of 10.25X and StoneCo at 7.56X, both below their one-year medians [20]. Conclusion - Both PayPal and StoneCo are pursuing strategies to enhance their long-term prospects, with PayPal focusing on global scale and innovation, while StoneCo capitalizes on Brazil's MSMB segment and demonstrates strong growth potential [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) stock has gained approximately 10% since last July, aligning with the performance of the S&P 500, but it has not yet reached the anticipated target of $30 [1]. Company Analysis - The stock performance of StoneCo has been steady, reflecting broader market trends, but it remains below the target price set previously [1]. - The company is under the coverage of an experienced equity analyst with over 10 years in the investment industry, indicating a level of expertise in the analysis of its stock [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst has a significant following and has contributed to various investment platforms, showcasing a strong reputation in the field [1]. - The analyst is a CFA Level III candidate and holds qualifications from the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (CISI), adding credibility to the analysis [1].

Core Viewpoint - StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) stock has gained approximately 10% since last July, aligning with the performance of the S&P 500, but it has not yet reached the anticipated target of $30 [1]. Company Summary - StoneCo Ltd. is currently experiencing a stock price increase, but it remains below the target price set previously [1]. - The company is under analysis by an experienced equity analyst with over 10 years in the investment industry, focusing on small-cap stocks often overlooked by Wall Street [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst has qualifications from the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (CISI) and is a CFA Level III candidate, indicating a strong background in investment analysis [1]. - The analyst has contributed to various investment platforms, showcasing a significant following and expertise in equity research [1].