TXO Partners LP (TXO) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on TXO Partners LP (TXO), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other analytical tools like the Zacks Rank for making informed investment decisions [1][5]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations for TXO - TXO Partners LP has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.50, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, with 75% of the recommendations being Strong Buy from four brokerage firms [2][5]. - Despite the positive ABR, the article cautions against making investment decisions solely based on this metric, as studies show limited success of brokerage recommendations in predicting stock price increases [5][11]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, issuing five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][11]. - The article suggests that brokerage recommendations may not align with retail investors' interests and often do not accurately indicate future stock price movements [7][11]. Group 3: Zacks Rank as an Alternative - The Zacks Rank is presented as a more reliable indicator of near-term stock price performance, driven by earnings estimate revisions, and is classified into five groups from Strong Buy to Strong Sell [8][12]. - Unlike the ABR, the Zacks Rank is timely and reflects the latest earnings estimates, making it a better tool for predicting future price movements [13]. Group 4: Current Performance of TXO - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TXO Partners LP remains unchanged at $0.07 for the current year, indicating steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [14]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, TXO has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [15].

Core Insights - TXO Partners LP (TXO) is expected to report flat earnings of $0.01 per share for the quarter ended September 2025, with revenues projected at $95.82 million, reflecting a 39.4% increase year-over-year [3][12] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 30.44% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a neutral outlook, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [12][17] Earnings Expectations - The market anticipates that TXO's stock price may rise if actual earnings exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for TXO is 0%, indicating no recent changes in analyst estimates that differ from the consensus [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, TXO was expected to post a loss of $0.02 per share but achieved break-even earnings, resulting in a surprise of +100.00% [13] - Over the past four quarters, TXO has only surpassed consensus EPS estimates once [14] Industry Context - Another company in the same sector, XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR), is expected to report a loss of $0.07 per share, with revenues projected at $331.56 million, up 3.9% year-over-year [18] - XPLR's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 7.3% in the last 30 days, and it currently has a Zacks Rank of 4, indicating a sell recommendation [19][20]

Group 1 - TXO Partners LP closed at $14.49, with a +1.68% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.37% [1] - The stock has risen by 5.01% over the past month, surpassing the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 2.31% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.26% [1] Group 2 - TXO Partners LP is expected to report an EPS of $0.08, reflecting a 700% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $99.66 million, indicating a 45% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Group 3 - For the full year, earnings are projected at $0.23 per share, a decrease of 64.62% from the previous year, while revenue is expected to be $387.8 million, an increase of 37.12% [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates may indicate shifting business dynamics, with positive changes reflecting analyst optimism [3] Group 4 - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate revisions, indicates that TXO Partners LP currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [5] - The Zacks Rank has a historical average annual return of +25% for 1 stocks since 1988 [5] Group 5 - TXO Partners LP has a Forward P/E ratio of 61.96, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.4, suggesting it is trading at a premium [6] - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry ranks in the bottom 13% of all industries, with a current Zacks Industry Rank of 215 [6]

Company Performance - TXO Partners LP closed at $15.07, with a +1.14% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.78% [1] - The stock has decreased by 3.06% over the past month, underperforming the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 3.19% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.88% [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect TXO Partners LP to report earnings of $0.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 88.89% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $81.89 million, indicating a 42.89% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full-Year Estimates - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $0.77 per share and revenue of $391.11 million, representing year-over-year changes of +18.46% and +38.29%, respectively [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts are crucial as they indicate changing business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [3] Valuation Metrics - TXO Partners LP has a Forward P/E ratio of 19.35, which is higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 12.27 [6] - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry is ranked 234 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 6% of over 250 industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - TXO Partners LP is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with the consensus outlook being crucial for assessing the company's earnings picture [1] Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for TXO's quarterly earnings is $0.36 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.1% [3] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $88.21 million, which is a 30.8% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 27.17% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for TXO is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11] Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8] - TXO currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, TXO was expected to post earnings of $0.39 per share but only achieved $0.26, resulting in a surprise of -33.33% [12] - Over the past four quarters, TXO has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13] Conclusion - TXO Partners LP does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when making investment decisions [16]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is expected to remain volatile due to uncertainty surrounding trade policies, economic concerns, and shifts in investor sentiment, particularly influenced by President Trump's tariffs on major trading partners [1] - Retaliatory measures from trading partners have heightened market anxiety, despite temporary rebounds from hopes for tariff concessions [1] - Key economic indicators such as jobless claims, payroll reports, and corporate earnings are likely to further influence market movements [1] Investment Strategy - Creating a curated portfolio of low-beta stocks is recommended as a strategy to safeguard against market fluctuations [2] - Low-beta stocks such as The Progressive Corporation (PGR), Pearson plc (PSO), TXO Partners LP (TXO), and Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2] Company Highlights The Progressive Corporation (PGR) - In 2024, PGR reported a 21% year-over-year increase in net premiums written, totaling $74.4 billion, with active policies growing by over 5 million [7] - The company achieved an 88.8 combined ratio, outperforming its 96 target, driven by strong claims management and operational efficiencies [7] - PGR's competitive advantages in pricing and customer service position it well for continued growth in the insurance sector [7] Pearson plc (PSO) - Pearson experienced a 3% sales growth in 2024, with profits rising by 10% and an EBIT margin of 16.9% [9] - Strategic partnerships with AWS and Microsoft are enhancing Pearson's AI capabilities and expanding enterprise learning opportunities [9] - The company's leadership in assessments and innovative digital offerings support its long-term growth outlook [9] Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) - Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported annual revenues exceeding $4 billion in 2024, with fourth-quarter revenues reaching a record $1.09 billion [10] - The company's diversified portfolio in sleep, epilepsy, and oncology continues to drive growth, with key products showing strong performance [10] - Robust cash flow and a strong pipeline position JAZZ for continued growth and value creation [10] TXO Partners LP (TXO) - TXO Partners has a strong presence in the oil-rich Permian Basin, benefiting from exploration and production activities [11] - The Mancos Shale project, covering 58,500 contiguous acres, holds nearly 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas potential, which could significantly increase reserves [11] - Phase I of the project targets a 3,520-acre block estimated to hold 200-300 billion cubic feet of natural gas, potentially doubling existing reserves [11]