大家好，关注一下俄罗斯跟乌克兰的最新消息。 11月25日晚间，全球市场发生了异动。 石油价格直线跳水。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基则强调，前路仍有"大量工作"要做。 这名美国官员是在美国陆军部长正在阿布扎比与俄方官员就特朗普政府的和平方案举行会谈之际表示上 述看法的。他说："乌克兰人已经同意这份和平协议，现在还有一些小细节需要处理，但他们已经同意 达成和平协议。" 美方这一说法，似乎比乌克兰官员公开表态更往前迈了一步。乌方官员同样在阿布扎比派出了代表团， 并且一直与陆军部长丹·德里斯科尔保持沟通。 乌克兰国家安全事务秘书鲁斯捷姆·乌梅罗夫在社交平台X上发文称，各方代表团就日内瓦讨论的协议核 心条款"达成了共同理解"。 "接下来我们指望欧洲伙伴在后续步骤中给予支持。"乌梅罗夫写道。他还表示，乌方期待安排泽连斯基 访问美国，"完成最后步骤，并与特朗普达成协议"。 泽连斯基当天早些时候也在X上发文称："在日内瓦会谈之后，我们看到了许多可以让通往和平之路变 得现实的前景。目前已经取得了扎实成果，但前方仍有大量工作要做。" 欧美股市短线拉升。 黄金、白银一度跳水，但随后价格回升。 消息面上，一位美国官员对媒体表示，乌克兰代表团 ...

【导读】全球市场突然异动，报道称 乌克兰已原则同意美国提出的和平协议 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下俄罗斯跟乌克兰的最新消息。 11月25日晚间，全球市场发生了异动。 石油价格直线跳水。 欧美股市短线拉升。 黄金、白银一度跳水，但随后价格回升。 消息面上，一位美国官员对媒体表示， 乌克兰代表团已经就一份潜在的和平协议条款与美国达成一 致。 据悉，美国在日内瓦提交给乌克兰的那份28点和平计划，已经被修订为一份19点和平计划，其中删去了 有关战时行为赦免问题的条款，以及对乌克兰未来军队规模加以限制的条款。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基则强调，前路仍有"大量工作"要做。 这名美国官员是在美国陆军部长正在阿布扎比与俄方官员就特朗普政府的和平方案举行会谈之际表示上 述看法的。 他说："乌克兰人已经同意这份和平协议，现在还有一些小细节需要处理，但他们已经同意 达成和平协议。 " 美方这一说法，似乎比乌克兰官员公开表态更往前迈了一步。乌方官员同样在阿布扎比派出了代表团， 并且一直与陆军部长丹·德里斯科尔保持沟通。 乌克兰国家安全事务秘书鲁斯捷姆·乌梅罗夫在社交平台X上发文称，各方代表团就日内瓦讨论的协议核 心条款"达成了共同 ...

今日周一(11月24日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11821一线上方，今日开盘于11715元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11837元/千克，下跌0.90%，最高触及11977元/千克，最低下探11689元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 他表示，泽连斯基本应在"一年前、两年前"达成协议。在谈及外界对和平草案的批评时，特朗普未回应 具体条款，只称若泽连斯基不接受，"那他们就继续打"，但双方目前的伤亡规模"是二战以来未曾见过 的"。 另外美国总统特朗普11月21日评论了华盛顿关于俄乌冲突新解决方案的立场，明确了基辅签署该协议的 最后期限和拒绝该方案后的后果。在谈到协议签署期限时，特朗普指出，他认为11月27日是合适的基辅 接受和平协议条款的最后期限。 他表示，乌克兰应当接受华盛顿提出的解决方案，如果泽连斯基不同意该方案，基辅可以继续作战。但 乌克兰将面临一个寒冷的冬天，因为其能源基础设施遭到打击。基辅将不可避免地丧失其控制下的顿巴 斯地区："他们将在很短的时间内失去这些土地。他们正在丧失领土。" 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银上周最大的区间在12300/11700，目前低位布局的多单还在持 ...

Group 1 - European countries oppose a US-backed peace plan for Ukraine, which requires Kyiv to concede more territory and partially demilitarize, seen as tantamount to surrender by Ukraine's allies [2][3] - The US has signaled to Ukrainian President Zelensky that he must accept a framework agreement drafted by the US to end the conflict, including territorial concessions and military restrictions [2][3] - Ukraine's military is currently on the defensive, and the Zelensky government is weakened by corruption scandals, leading to the dismissal of two cabinet ministers [3][4] Group 2 - French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot stated that peace cannot equate to surrender, emphasizing the need for a fair and lasting peace that respects sovereignty [4] - Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski asserted that Ukraine, as a victim of the conflict, should not be subjected to conditions that limit its self-defense capabilities [4] - The US Secretary of State, Rubio, mentioned that achieving lasting peace will require both sides to make difficult but necessary concessions [4][5] Group 3 - As winter approaches, Russian forces are slowly advancing and preparing to capture the significant city of Pokrovsk, which would mark their first major victory in nearly two years [6][7] - Russia currently occupies nearly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory and demands further land concessions, permanent neutrality, and military reductions from Ukraine to end the conflict [7] - The conflict has evolved into a brutal stalemate along a 1,000-kilometer front, with both sides suffering heavy losses [7]

Core Points - The announcement of a phased peace plan between Israel and Hamas, as stated by former President Trump, indicates a potential resolution to the ongoing conflict, with the release of hostages and military withdrawals expected soon [1][2] - The agreement, finalized in Egypt, is based on a 20-point peace plan introduced by Trump, although significant issues such as disarmament of Hamas remain unresolved [2] Group 1 - The peace agreement includes the release of approximately 20 hostages taken during the October 2023 attacks and the return of over 20 deceased individuals, while Israel is expected to release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners [1] - The ceasefire is set to take effect on October 9, 2023, at 12 PM Cairo time, marking a significant step towards ending the Gaza conflict [1][2] - The announcement led to a decline in gold prices, with a drop of about $30, or 0.6%, reflecting reduced investor demand for safe-haven assets due to easing tensions in the Middle East [2] Group 2 - The successful negotiation of the agreement represents a major breakthrough in two years of conflict mediation by the United States, although the implementation phase is expected to face numerous challenges [2] - Trump's potential visit to Egypt and possibly Gaza is under consideration, which could further influence the peace process [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of U.S. President Trump regarding the Ukraine crisis, indicating a newfound optimism about Ukraine's potential to reclaim its territory with the support of the EU and NATO [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Statements on Ukraine - Trump expressed confidence that Ukraine could "win back all of Ukraine" and restore its borders with the backing of the EU and NATO [1][2]. - He emphasized that the prolonged conflict has created economic difficulties for Russia, making it feasible for Ukraine to return to its original borders [2]. - Trump encouraged Ukraine to "immediately take action" and stated that the country is "ready to fight" to reclaim its occupied territories [3]. Group 2: Military and Economic Support - Trump reiterated that the U.S. will continue to provide weapons to NATO allies, reinforcing military support for Ukraine [3]. - He indicated that if Russia does not agree to end the conflict, the U.S. is prepared to impose severe tariffs on Russia, contingent on European nations joining the sanctions [4][5]. Group 3: Previous Stance and Changes - The article notes that just over a month prior, Trump had suggested that Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia, reflecting a significant shift in his position [5]. - Trump previously advocated for a direct peace agreement rather than a ceasefire, highlighting a change in approach towards conflict resolution [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda to implement security measures from a peace agreement signed in June, starting from October 1 [1] - The DRC and Rwanda representatives reached an agreement in Washington on September 17-18 to gradually implement the security measures, with a goal to complete them by the end of the year [1] - Actions to eliminate the threat posed by the Rwandan rebel group "Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda" are set to begin between October 21 and 31 [1] Group 2 - The peace agreement signed on June 27 aims to end a 30-year conflict between the two nations, addressing long-standing disputes over support for rebel groups [1] - The DRC accuses Rwanda of supporting the anti-government group "M23," while Rwanda accuses the DRC military of colluding with the "Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda" [1] - There are speculations that the Trump administration seeks to leverage the resolution of the DRC-Rwanda conflict to gain mining rights in the DRC [1]

Core Viewpoint - The peace agreement signed between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda in June has not resolved the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC, as stated by President Tshisekedi during the UN General Assembly in New York. Despite supporting U.S. mediation, DRC will not "auction off" its mineral resources to the U.S. [1] Group 1: Peace Agreement and Conflict Status - The peace agreement signed on June 27 in Washington, D.C. was hailed by U.S. President Trump as a "great victory," which would grant the U.S. significant mining rights in DRC [1] - The DRC government and the rebel group M23 failed to reach a peace agreement by the August 18 deadline, indicating that the conflict in eastern DRC remains unresolved [1] Group 2: U.S. Involvement and Resource Management - The Trump administration is eager to end the conflict in DRC and attract billions of dollars in Western investment into the resource-rich region [1] - President Tshisekedi emphasized that while DRC will collaborate with the U.S. in mining and infrastructure, it will not compromise its mineral resources [1]

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed with US President Trump the need for stronger sanctions against Russia and a plan to protect Ukrainian airspace during a phone call after an online meeting in Paris [1] - Zelensky emphasized the importance of applying pressure on Russia through economic measures to achieve "real peace" in the ongoing conflict [1] - The European Commission President von der Leyen announced that 26 countries in the "Volunteer Alliance" committed to providing security guarantees to Ukraine by deploying military forces under a potential ceasefire or peace agreement [1] Group 2 - Trump indicated that he would soon have a conversation with Russian President Putin, highlighting the ongoing "very good communication" between the parties involved [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - If the Russia - Ukraine situation doesn't change and they fail to reach a peace agreement on August 27th, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact India's economy and oil demand and lead to a downward revision of India's oil demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 81 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London rose 83 cents to $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.27% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney had a phone call with US President Trump on Thursday to discuss trade challenges and opportunities [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to immediately start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war there under acceptable conditions [2] - The US imposed sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran [2] - Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said that despite US pressure, New Delhi will continue to buy Russian oil. On August 21st, the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow. Kumar emphasized that India won't consider an embargo on Russian oil for reasons of national security, economy, energy interests, and the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people [2] Investment Logic - The hope of a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on August 27th is slim. If the situation remains unchanged, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact its economy and oil demand and cause a downward revision of its oil demand [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]