Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - If the Russia - Ukraine situation doesn't change and they fail to reach a peace agreement on August 27th, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact India's economy and oil demand and lead to a downward revision of India's oil demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 81 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London rose 83 cents to $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.27% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney had a phone call with US President Trump on Thursday to discuss trade challenges and opportunities [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to immediately start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war there under acceptable conditions [2] - The US imposed sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran [2] - Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said that despite US pressure, New Delhi will continue to buy Russian oil. On August 21st, the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow. Kumar emphasized that India won't consider an embargo on Russian oil for reasons of national security, economy, energy interests, and the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people [2] Investment Logic - The hope of a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on August 27th is slim. If the situation remains unchanged, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact its economy and oil demand and cause a downward revision of its oil demand [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

泽连斯基：我们已准备好进行三方会谈。特朗普有能力迫使俄罗斯达成和平协议。只有通过武力才能迫使俄罗斯走向和平。乌克兰“不可能割让领土”给俄罗斯。乌克兰向特朗普提出1000亿美元的武器交易以赢得安全保障。 ...

他表示，最终的和平协议是可以实现的，并可以在不久的将来实现。他认为今天就会做出决议，决议可能包括安全问题。特朗普表示，所有人都希望立即停 火，并致力于实现持久和平。 泽连斯基表示，美国在安全问题上发出强烈信号很重要。特朗普将尝试组织美俄乌三边会谈，并将在三边会谈上讨论领土问题。 特朗普在会晤时表示，到目前为止，这一天非常成功。美方将努力推进美国、乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的三边会晤。 特朗普称，与会方谈及了包括安全保障在内的敏感问题。俄罗斯同意接受安全保障，而"美国将考虑由谁来做什么"。目前还需要讨论可能的领土交换事宜。 当地时间8月18日，美国总统特朗普在白宫与到访的欧洲领导人举行多边会晤。除特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基外，与会者包括欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、 法国总统马克龙、德国总理默茨、英国首相斯塔默、意大利总理梅洛尼、芬兰总统斯图布以及北约秘书长吕特。 德国总理默茨称，此次会晤"非常有帮助"。他表示，当前对话为下一步谈判铺平了道路，但相关进程将更加复杂。他强调，推动尽快实现停火至关重要。 法国总统马克龙表示，各方都支持停火的想法。他呼吁乌克兰、俄罗斯、美国和欧洲举行四方会谈。 当天稍早前，特朗普在白宫与到访的乌克 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled for the 18th, with several European leaders also visiting to support Zelensky and avoid past tensions [1][2] - Trump indicated that if Zelensky is willing, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could "almost immediately" end, but he also stated that Ukraine would not regain Crimea and cannot join NATO [1] - The collective visit of European leaders aims to prevent Zelensky from being pressured into an unfavorable agreement with Russia, following a previous contentious meeting in February [2] Group 2 - The last meeting between Zelensky and Trump occurred on February 28, where tensions led to Zelensky leaving early, and subsequent military aid to Ukraine was paused [2] - US Secretary of State Rubio commented that the European leaders' visit is a result of ongoing cooperation and not solely to protect Zelensky from pressure [2] - Discussions during the meeting will also include security guarantees for Ukraine, emphasizing that any territorial issues must be decided by Ukraine itself [2]

Core Points - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled for August 18, with European leaders also visiting the US to support Zelensky [1][2] - Trump indicated that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could "almost immediately" end if Zelensky is willing, but he also stated that Ukraine cannot reclaim Crimea or join NATO [1] - The collective visit of European leaders aims to prevent a repeat of the contentious February meeting and to support Zelensky against potential pressure from the US [1][2] Summary by Sections - **Meeting Details** - Trump will first meet with Zelensky at 1:15 PM local time, followed by a collective meeting with European leaders at 3 PM [1] - This is Zelensky's second visit to the White House, the first being on February 28, where tensions arose leading to an early departure [2] - **European Leaders' Visit** - The visit is characterized as a group effort to avoid past conflicts and to provide support to Ukraine [1][2] - US Secretary of State Rubio emphasized that the visit is a result of ongoing cooperation between the US and Europe [2] - **Negotiation Dynamics** - The meeting is expected to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and the need for concessions from both Russia and Ukraine for a peace agreement [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen stated that any territorial issues must be decided by Ukraine itself [2]

看了一下，现在的欧洲，情绪很不稳定。 刚开始还在观望，目前很生气很窝火又很无奈。 第一，欧洲居然连上桌的资格都没有。 第二，特朗普居然都没让俄罗斯停火。 第三，特朗普还在逼欧洲和乌克兰让步。 第一条，说实话，更多是面子。 愤怒源于被轻视的尊严，无奈则来自无法掌控命运的无力感。 好歹也算是世界的重要一极，在西方被认为可与美国平起平坐，但在乌克兰问题上，欧洲就这样被美国羞辱，连个上桌的资格都没有。 到底谁是盟友谁是敌人？ 欧洲人心中，可以说1万匹草原神兽奔腾而过。 在国际政治的丛林里，不得不说，实力是唯一永恒的门票。 我看到，原来与特朗普关系不错的英国前首相约翰逊，就公开痛骂：这是国际外交史上最令人作呕的事件…… 所以，看欧洲媒体的报道，99%的基调都是，特朗普很不靠谱，普京是唯一赢家。 当然，第二和第三条，最关键。 请注意：大家一致认为！ 欧洲人鼻子都要气歪了，又被特朗普代表了。 因为对欧洲和乌克兰来说，现在最关键的，就是停火，停火，停火。 没有之一。 我看到，阿拉斯加会晤一结束，欧洲几大巨头——欧委会主席冯德莱恩、欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、法国总统马克龙、意大利总理梅洛尼、德国总理默茨、 英国首相斯塔默、芬兰总统 ...

据挪威今日商报报道，特朗普上月致电挪威财政部长讨论关税问题时，表示自己想获得诺贝尔和平奖。目前包括以色列、巴基斯坦和柬埔寨在内的几个国家已提名特朗普角逐2026年诺贝尔和平奖，表彰他促成和平协议或停火协议的努力。他本人也表示，自己理应获得这个由挪威颁发的奖项。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the geopolitical implications of the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, particularly concerning the proposed transport corridor that would connect Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenia, with significant involvement from the United States [2][5][6] - Iran's opposition to the corridor is highlighted, with Iranian officials stating that they will prevent the corridor's construction, viewing it as a threat to regional stability and a potential means for foreign interference [1][4] - Russia's response indicates a cautious support for the peace talks but emphasizes that any resolution should respect the interests of regional countries and not be influenced by external powers [5][6] Group 2 - The proposed corridor, referred to as the "Trump International Peace Prosperity Road," is expected to grant the U.S. exclusive development rights and a 99-year operational lease, raising concerns about its implications for regional sovereignty and security [2][4] - Turkey's support for the corridor is noted, with the Turkish government expressing hope that it will enhance energy and resource exports from the South Caucasus region, while also indicating a willingness to restore relations with Armenia post-agreement [5][6] - The historical context of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, particularly regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh region, is essential to understanding the current dynamics, as the two nations have been in a state of hostility since the 1990s despite a ceasefire in 1994 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Kremlin has stated that it cannot provide a timeline for achieving a peace agreement [1] Group 1 - The lack of a defined timeframe for a peace agreement indicates ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape [1]

Geopolitical Stance - US President Trump expressed disappointment with Russian President Putin but remains open to potential agreements [1] - Trump threatened Russia with secondary sanctions and a 50-day grace period, followed by a potential 100% tariff if a peace agreement is not reached [2] Market Reaction - Russia's RTS Index increased by 2% following Trump's threat of sanctions [2]