Everyone is going to get this crypto cycle wrong, including myself. Yeah, that's right. I'm admitting it.Everyone is going to get this cycle wrong because this is for the first time in crypto history. This is the first time that everything has completely changed. In previous cycles, it was very easy to predict the top and also the bottom because we were going off of a timeframebased cycle top and bottom, which was the four-year cycle.Today, we know that that four-year cycle is basically dead. A lot of peopl ...

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Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a recovery after hitting a low of $86,000, rising over 2% within nine hours before facing resistance at $88,250, indicating a potential early bear-market reversal despite an ongoing downtrend since October [1] - The recent selloff was influenced by risk-off sentiment among investors, following U.S. President Trump's speeches at Davos, which affected Bitcoin's status as a safe-haven asset and aligned it more closely with U.S. equities [2] Derivatives Positioning - Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) remained stable at $22.6 billion, suggesting a pause in deleveraging despite price volatility [3] - Funding rates across most exchanges have neutralized around 5% annualized, with OKX showing a -3.8% rate, indicating localized hedging or bearish positions [3] - The 3-month annualized basis on Binance and Deribit increased to just over 5%, reflecting a firming institutional appetite during market consolidation [3] - BTC options displayed high conviction with a 15% one-week 25-delta skew and 58% call dominance in 24-hour volume [3] - Implied volatility (IV) term structure shifted from contango to backwardation, with near-term rates higher than those further out, indicating a premium for immediate positioning [3] Liquidation and Altcoin Performance - Coinglass data reported $744 million in liquidations within 24 hours, with a 77-23 split between longs and shorts, highlighting significant market activity [3] - Bitcoin's weakness contrasted with altcoin resilience, as Ether (ETH) and XRP rose by 2.8%, while privacy coins Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) gained 6% and 3%, respectively [3] - Metaverse tokens performed notably, with Axie Infinity (AXS) increasing by over 23%, contributing to a 34.4% year-to-date rally in the CoinDesk Metaverse Select Index (MTVS) [3] Altcoin Market Dynamics - The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index, dominated by Bitcoin, has lost 0.52% since the start of the year, while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) Index, heavy on altcoins, has risen by 2.5%, indicating relative strength among altcoins [4] - RIVER, the native token of a stablecoin protocol, surged over 2,100% in the past 30 days, with a 34% increase in the last 24 hours [4] - The "altcoin season" indicator is currently at 28/100, significantly higher than last month's 16/100 but still below September's peak of 76/100 [4] - A lack of liquidity and market depth since October's $19 billion liquidation cascade has led to exaggerated altcoin movements, resulting in high liquidation rates during selloffs and rapid recoveries [4]

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Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is currently lacking a definitive altcoin season, which presents an opportunity for investors to consider the CoinShares Altcoins ETF (DIME) as a strategic investment option [2][3]. Group 1: DIME ETF Overview - DIME ETF focuses on higher-tier altcoins, excluding Ethereum, Bitcoin, and stablecoins, providing a diversified exposure to altcoins [3]. - The ETF's structure allows investors to avoid the complexities of selecting individual digital currencies while still participating in potential altcoin growth [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context of Altcoin Seasons - Historical data shows that altcoin seasons can emerge rapidly, as evidenced by the significant drop in Bitcoin dominance from approximately 96% to 60% in 2017, which coincided with a major altcoin rally [5]. - A similar pattern occurred in 2021, where Bitcoin dominance fell from about 60% to near 40% in a short period, leading to substantial gains for altcoins like Ethereum and meme coins [6][7]. - The current Bitcoin dominance is around 60%, suggesting that a decline could signal the onset of a new altcoin season, which could benefit DIME [7].

Core Insights - The XRP market is experiencing a significant decline in exchange balances, dropping from 4 billion to approximately 1.7 billion tokens, a 57% decrease, which, combined with steady ETF demand, creates a structural tightness not yet fully priced in [1] - XRP ETFs have seen substantial inflows, attracting over $1.37 billion in under 60 days with 43 consecutive days of positive inflows, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs during the same period [2][5] - The altcoin season of 2026 is characterized by Bitcoin dominance at 59% and an Altcoin Season Index at 57, indicating potential for a full rotation into altcoins, similar to previous cycles [6][22] XRP Analysis - XRP is positioned as a primary beneficiary of institutional rotation, having repriced its regulatory and political risks, which previously held it back [3] - The bullish target for XRP is projected at $8 for 2026, assuming annual ETF inflows reach $8 to $10 billion [1] - XRP's potential surge could exceed $6-$8 if ETF inflows maintain above $400 million monthly and RippleNet expands its global banking role [26] Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum is viewed as severely undervalued, with predictions suggesting it could reach $12,000 to $18,000 if Layer 2 adoption unlocks mass usage and ETF flows rebound [10][26] - The asset is anchored in institutional finance through Layer 2 scaling and real-world asset tokenization, with significant developments from major financial institutions [9][8] - Active addresses for Ethereum are at cycle highs, indicating strong organic demand that could translate to price increases once institutional sentiment shifts [26] Solana Analysis - Solana has seen a remarkable increase in active addresses, reaching 27.1 million, a 56% weekly increase, and is positioned to benefit from the Alpenglow upgrade, which will significantly reduce transaction finality [14][15] - The institutionalization of Solana is accelerating, with ETF assets under management surpassing $1 billion, indicating growing institutional interest [16] - Predictions for Solana suggest it could reach $500-$800 if its transaction speed and low fees attract high-frequency applications at scale [26] Market Dynamics - The current market setup suggests that the leading altcoin in 2026 will depend on which narrative captures capital, with Ethereum likely leading if institutions drive the cycle, while Solana may excel if retail interest prevails [23][24] - Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin dominance often precedes a violent rotation into altcoins, with analysts observing conditions forming for "Phase 2" of the current bull run [4][6]

Core Insights - Solana is gaining traction as capital focuses on speed and throughput, with a price around $145 reflecting strong relative performance despite Bitcoin and Ethereum stalling [1][6] - XRP maintains its relevance through consistent cross-border settlement efficiency, supported by over $1.3 billion in ETF inflows, positioning it as an infrastructure asset rather than a speculative one [2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gap between network activity and price often indicates early stages of crypto rotation cycles, with increased mid-sized transfers suggesting operational demand rather than speculative behavior [3][11] - Bitcoin dominance remains steady at 59%, allowing select altcoins to gain traction without forcing traders into defensive positions, which historically precedes rotations into assets with real usage [10][12] Group 2: Altcoin Season Indicators - The Altcoin Season Index has risen from 37 to above 50, indicating potential for an altcoin season, although it remains below the 75 threshold needed for confirmation [7][18] - Current market conditions reflect a selective capital rotation into XRP and Solana, driven by clear usage trends, while leverage remains muted and open interest cools [19][20] Group 3: Historical Patterns and Future Outlook - Historical patterns show that altcoin rallies often begin with rising on-chain activity before prices react, suggesting that current conditions may lead to similar outcomes [14][15][16] - For a confirmed altcoin season, three conditions must align: Bitcoin dominance breaking below 57%, the Altcoin Index sustaining above 75, and consistent expansion of total altcoin market capitalization [20]

Core Viewpoint - The XRP versus Bitcoin debate has gained significant attention, with a prediction that 5,000 XRP could equal 1 Bitcoin by the end of 2026, suggesting an XRP price target of $18.40, representing nearly 800% upside from current levels [2][4][6]. Group 1: Prediction Details - Crypto influencer Bird forecasts that by the end of 2026, the XRP/BTC ratio will reach 1:5,000, indicating that 5,000 XRP will be valued the same as 1 BTC [5][6]. - This prediction aligns with the belief among XRP supporters that the token is undervalued based on its utility and adoption potential [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historically, altcoins like XRP tend to lag behind Bitcoin during the initial phase of a bull run but often surge to outperform Bitcoin later on [7]. - Bird's prediction has revitalized hopes among XRP holders for a market rotation as 2026 approaches [7]. Group 3: Mathematical Breakdown - To reach the target price of $18.40 per XRP, a 794% gain is required, which would result in a market cap of $1.84 trillion [9][10]. - Currently, XRP's market cap is approximately $130 billion at a price of $2.10, necessitating substantial capital inflows to achieve the predicted market cap [9]. Group 4: Current Market Conditions - As of early January 2026, the XRP/BTC ratio was around 0.00002235, and to meet the target, it must increase to 0.0002 BTC per XRP, reflecting a 794% gain from current levels [10]. - With Bitcoin priced at $96,000, the calculated XRP price of $18.40 aligns with the forecasted ratio [11].

Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a rise of over 2.3%, reaching a peak of approximately $92,400 before retracting during the European session [1] - The rally was influenced by the potential criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which also led to gold and silver prices increasing by 2% and 5.6% respectively [1] - Nasdaq 100 futures declined by around 1%, and the dollar index (DXY) weakened, indicating trader uncertainty regarding future interest rates [1] Altcoin Performance - Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,700, with several altcoins maintaining their gains, particularly privacy coins Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) [2] - Monero reached a record price of $576, rising over 12% since Sunday, while Zcash increased by 3.8% [2] Market Sentiment - CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator has moved to 30/100, indicating a shift from "bitcoin season" to a neutral zone for the first time since November 18 [3] Derivatives Positioning - Over $200 million in leveraged futures bets were liquidated in 24 hours, with bullish bets making up 50% of this total, suggesting that the market pullback caught many leveraged positions off guard [6] - Volatility indexes for BTC and ETH remain under pressure, indicating expectations for reduced price turbulence in the short term [6] - Open interest (OI) in Monero futures has increased to 369,000 XMR, the highest since February last year, suggesting new capital influx and validating the uptrend [6] - OI in major tokens like BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and DOGE declined by 1%-4%, reflecting growing risk aversion [6] - Funding rates for most major tokens remain moderately positive, indicating a bullish bias, while BTC and ETH puts are trading at a premium to calls, suggesting a bias for downside protection [6] Token Activity - Privacy coins led the market, with Monero hitting a record high and Zcash recovering from a governance dispute [6] - Aerodrome Finance's AERO token rose by 10% to $0.60 before retracting to around $0.57 [6] - Solana's SOL token performed well, rising 2.7% from its low of $135 [6] Memecoin Trends - Newly issued memecoins like Whale Guru surged over 146,000% after their launch, generating significant trading volume of $10.5 million [7] - However, not all altcoins performed positively; Lighter's LIT token fell over 10% in the past 24 hours, and Polygon's POL token declined by more than 15% from its peak [7]