Donald Trump playing with fire today when it comes to the American economy. A once strong area for him politically that now sees some of his lowest approval marks ever in areas like inflation and tariffs, as well as a majority of Americans now expressing anxiety about how much things cost. So what does a politically vulnerable wannabe autocrat do? Well, he lunges for the steering wheel with an unprecedented and likely illegal attempt to fire a member of the independent Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Li ...

Fed Independence & Political Interference - Trump's attempts to influence the Fed by criticizing officials and attempting to remove Cook are unprecedented and potentially illegal [2] - These actions raise concerns about the central bank's ability to remain independent from daily politics [2] Potential Economic Consequences - The situation has potentially huge consequences for the US economy and Americans [2] - The core issue revolves around interest rates, with Trump desiring lower rates [1] Personnel & Legal Challenges - Cook states she will not resign and will continue her duties [2] - Cook's attorney will file a lawsuit challenging the firing attempt, citing a lack of factual or legal basis [2]

Tariffs Impact & Economic Uncertainty - Tariffs, ranging from 10% to 40% on some countries, create uncertainty for companies considering US investments due to unknown duration [3] - The ultimate responsibility for tariffs will be borne by the American consumer [5] - The market anticipates potential downturns and inflationary risks, but relying on this pattern long-term is uncertain [7] Market Reaction & Economic Indicators - Initial market reaction to tariff announcements in April was negative, leading to a temporary turnaround [7] - No sharp fall-off in the economy has been observed yet, partly due to the stop-start nature of tariff implementation [6] Legal & Agreement Concerns - Announced agreements are not treaties, raising questions about the legal basis of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [2]

Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin's hash rate is hitting all-time highs, indicating the network's strength and security [2][4] - The Bitcoin network's computational power surpasses the combined power of Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Amazon's AWS [4] - Miners receive over $100 million per day in mining rewards, securing a network protecting over $2.3 trillion worth of value [5] - Bitcoin's price is holding steady around $118,000, showing strong demand and consolidation [9] Market Structure & ETF Impact - Bitcoin ETFs have significantly changed the market structure, leading to constant inflows and muted volatility [10][11] - Daily Bitcoin purchases exceed 600% of the daily incoming supply, driving price increases [14] - Bitcoin is up 80-90% over the last year and 25-30% year-to-date, with potential to reach $150,000 by year-end [15][16][17] Trade & Economic Impact - The US-EU trade deal includes a 15% tariff on European goods, hundreds of billions in US military equipment purchases, $750 billion in US energy purchases, and opened markets to US products [17] - The EU will print money to service trade deals, increasing global liquidity and benefiting American asset holders [29] - Tariffs with the EU could bring in $3 trillion of revenue for the United States over the next decade [29] - The US dollar is used in nearly 50% of global payments, the highest level in more than 12 years [32]

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The legislation is viewed as a significant legislative achievement, but concerns exist regarding its potential to substantially increase budget deficits in the future [1] - The legislation is considered the largest cutback in the social safety net identified, occurring alongside potential reductions in spending on scientific research, arts, humanities, and foreign assistance programs [3] - Concerns are raised that the legislation compromises the nation's capacity to defend itself due to increased debt and negatively impacts its standing as a humane force in the world [4] - Bond market trends, particularly forward rates on regular bonds (well above 5%) and TIPS (well above 3%), are seen as potentially ominous indicators of the nation's medium-term credibility and ability to issue long-term debt [12] Tariffs & Inflation - Despite concerns about tariffs, CPI numbers have not yet indicated the inflation predicted by most economists [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, with potential deflationary forces from artificial intelligence and technology possibly influencing the situation [7][8] - Studies during the president's first term indicated that tariffs translated into higher prices in affected sectors [9] Consumer & Small Business - Consumer spending grew by over 4% in the second quarter of 2024, supported by employment and wage growth [14] - Moderate-income households are showing some shifts in spending patterns, but overall discretionary spending remains consistent [15] - Small and medium-sized businesses face challenges due to the rising interest rate environment affecting their short-term borrowing costs [16] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs poses challenges for companies engaged in international trade, while the certainty provided by the tax rate is seen as a positive factor [17] Labor Market - Construction, farming, and travel/entertainment companies are expressing concerns about labor availability at any price [18] - Ensuring an adequate workforce is crucial for the continued growth of the service economy [19]

Interest Rate Policy - The sentiment is to reduce interest rates given the strong American economy [1] - Concerns exist about cutting rates if the economy is "too hot," potentially leading to inflation [2] - An argument suggests that AI and productivity could make a "hot" economy disinflationary, potentially justifying rate cuts [3] Economic Concerns - High interest rates are negatively impacting home ownership and purchases of large ticket items like automobiles [4] - Meaningful interest rate reductions could stimulate these sectors and have a lasting positive effect on the economy [5] Fiscal Policy - The Republican majority is delivering fiscal responsibility, including clawing back $9 billion of wasted taxpayer funds [2]

Mr. . Speaker, do you think that that JP Pal uh is going to be around till till May. I we're trying to figure out exactly what how to uh how to handicap that at this point.Do you think he should be around in May. Is there um I guess people that wish that he wouldn't if he would resign, that's probably would be easier or that's probably not going to happen though. What do you think.How does this play out in your view. Um I'm as anxious to see how that plays out as you are. I will tell you that the sentiment ...

Home Depot founder Ken Langone says he is BULLISH on the American economy right now.You love to see it. https://t.co/P4Bpp6fk5h ...

RT Archie Hall (@ArchieHall)There’s an odd tension in how the tariff chaos is hitting the American economy, which I tried to capture in my latest for @TheEconomist.On the one hand, things feel calm—prices in shops haven’t risen much, markets are back at highs.But… (🧵)https://t.co/dGWuwlZCOK ...

Investment Advice - The financial industry suggests individuals ensure their financial stability by understanding their budget, savings, and investments [1] - The financial industry emphasizes the importance of saving and investing for the long term, despite market uncertainties [2] - The financial industry advises against holding back on investments due to economic uncertainty [2] - The financial industry expresses confidence in the American economy's long-term prospects [2] Personal Finance - Individuals should prioritize understanding their income and expenses [1] - Individuals should focus on saving adequately for retirement [1] - Individuals should consider saving for their children's education [1]