Key Takeaways SM Energy to sell South Texas assets for $950M in cash, with deal closure expected in 2Q26.SM plans to use proceeds to reduce debt and strengthen its balance sheet.Assets for sale include 61,000 net acres and 260 wells, with 2026 output expected to be 37-39 Mboe/d.SM Energy Company (SM) struck a deal to sell certain South Texas assets for $950 million in cash to Caturus Energy, LLC. The cash transaction, subject to customary closing adjustments, has an effective date of Feb. 1, 2026, and is ex ...

TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is an exciting stock right now. Over the past year, its share price has risen by over 220%. At one point, the stock was trading higher by more than 460%, so there is definitely some volatility to contend with. Before you jump aboard this roller-coaster ride, here are three things you need to know about TMC The Metals Company and its stock. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispen ...

Quick Read SPDR S&P Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) gained 17.1% year-to-date despite WTI crude retreating from $75.89 to $64.53. ConocoPhillips missed Q4 estimates with $1.02 EPS as realized prices dropped 19% year-over-year to $42.46 per barrel. Diamondback Energy beat Q3 expectations with $3.51 EPS driven by strong Permian Basin execution. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. The SPDR S&P Oil & G ...

Core Viewpoint - PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation (PNRG) has significantly outperformed its industry peers, with a 35% increase in stock price over the past three months compared to the industry composite's 8.4% return [1] Operational Strategy & Asset Diversification - PrimeEnergy focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties primarily in Texas and Oklahoma, emphasizing horizontal drilling in the Midland Basin [3] - The company operates 508 wells and has a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with the potential for 100 additional horizontal drilling locations in West Texas [4] - PrimeEnergy also benefits from asset diversification, holding a 12.5% overriding royalty interest in approximately 30,000 acres in West Virginia, an idle offshore pipeline in Texas, and a 33.3% stake in a retail shopping center in Alabama [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, PrimeEnergy invested $96 million in drilling 35 horizontal wells, followed by $113 million for 48 horizontal wells in 2024, with further investments planned for 2025 [6] - In Q3 2025, production reached 505 MBbl of oil, 2.3 Bcf of natural gas, and 362 MBbl of natural gas liquids (NGLs), with higher natural gas volumes and improved pricing contributing to revenue growth despite declines in mature oil assets [8] Energy Outlook & Implications - Brent crude oil prices are projected to decline to $56 per barrel in 2026 and $54 in 2027, while Henry Hub natural gas prices are expected to average between $4.30 and $4.40 per MMBtu during the same period [9][10] - A softer oil price environment may impact oil revenues, but stronger natural gas fundamentals and rising LNG demand could support gas and NGL production, stabilizing cash flows [11] Balance Sheet Strength - As of September 30, 2025, PrimeEnergy had no outstanding debt and full availability under its $115 million revolving credit facility, providing flexibility for acquisitions and investments [12] - The company's debt-to-capitalization ratio stands at 0.59%, significantly lower than the industry average of 49.9% [13] Valuation Perspective - PrimeEnergy trades at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.57X, well below the industry average of 10.89X, indicating potential upside if operational momentum continues [14]

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips (COP) shares have increased by 13.7% over the past six months, which is lower than the energy sector's average gain of 21% and significantly less than Exxon Mobil Corporation's 42.9% increase [1][9] Company Overview - ConocoPhillips is a key player in the exploration and production sector, with a strong asset base in major U.S. shale basins such as the Delaware Basin, Midland Basin, Eagle Ford, and Bakken shale [2] - The company has a durable and diverse portfolio that is expected to support production growth for decades, although it remains vulnerable to crude price volatility due to its upstream focus [2] Crude Price Vulnerability - In its latest earnings call, ConocoPhillips indicated that 2026 could be a challenging year for commodity prices, which are crucial for its earnings and cash flows [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will average $53.42 per barrel in 2026, down from $65.40 per barrel in 2025, which could negatively impact ConocoPhillips [5] Capital Expenditures and Financial Flexibility - ConocoPhillips has reduced capital spending compared to 2025 but still faces significant pre-productive capital expenditures for its Willow project, which is currently 50% complete and expected to start production in 2029 [10] - The ongoing capital commitments for the Willow project may limit the company's financial flexibility, especially in a low crude price environment [11] Market Valuation - The current valuation of ConocoPhillips suggests that the stock may be slightly overvalued, with a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 5.85X, compared to the industry average of 5.77X [13]

Copper prices settled 3.2% lower, and recent swings reflect heightened uncertainty across base and precious metals this year, with investors rapidly unwinding bullish bets after sharp rallies. Although copper remains up roughly 5% so far this year, with prices touching a record above $14,500 a ton last week.Market pressure has been linked to signs of weakening spot demand in China, the world’s largest consumer, where higher prices have made the metal expensive for fabricators. Inventories in London Metal E ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - Canadian industry is heavily influenced by oil and gas prices, which directly affect cash flow, spending plans, and investor confidence [1][2] - The industry faces challenges such as prolonged price weakness, infrastructure issues, and regulatory uncertainty, leading to production delays and inconsistent results [1][5] - Despite these challenges, improved market access, better pipeline utilization, and stricter capital discipline have helped stabilize margins and reduce pricing discounts [1][4] Current Market Conditions - The industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 232, placing it in the bottom 3% of 243 Zacks industries, indicating bearish near-term prospects [6][8] - Analysts have revised earnings estimates for the industry down by 22% for 2026 over the past year, reflecting a negative outlook for earnings growth potential [8] Performance Metrics - Over the past year, the industry has increased by 8.9%, outperforming the broader Zacks Oil - Energy Sector's 3.3% increase but lagging behind the S&P 500's 19.3% rise [10] Valuation - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 5.37, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18.94 and slightly below the sector's 5.62 [14] Key Companies Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) - Canadian Natural is one of the largest independent energy producers in Canada, with a diversified portfolio and a market capitalization of around $72 billion [17][19] - The company focuses on maximizing free cash flow and shareholder returns, maintaining financial flexibility across commodity cycles [18] InPlay Oil (IPOOF) - InPlay Oil is a Canadian light-oil producer with a market capitalization of around $272 million, producing about 18,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day [22][24] - The company emphasizes capital discipline and has a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating 300% year-over-year growth in 2026 earnings per share [24] Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) - Gran Tierra Energy operates in Colombia, Ecuador, and Canada, controlling over 2.7 million gross acres and producing roughly 46,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day [27][28] - The company has a market capitalization of around $175 million and a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating 28.1% growth in 2026 earnings [29]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil and Gas - US E&P industry is heavily influenced by oil and gas price fluctuations, which create near-term visibility challenges [1][2] - Earnings are sensitive to crude price volatility driven by geopolitical factors, uneven global growth, and supply decisions [1][3] - The industry's weak Zacks Industry Rank reflects sharp underperformance compared to the broader market over the past year, with a decline of 31.1% against the S&P 500's gain of 19% [10][6] Key Trends - **Commodity Price Volatility**: Ongoing volatility in crude oil prices poses a significant risk, influenced by unpredictable geopolitical developments and OPEC+ behavior [3] - **Natural Gas Demand Growth**: There is a structural upside from improving natural gas demand, supported by LNG exports and rising electricity needs, which could stabilize cash flows for gas-weighted companies [4] - **Infrastructure Constraints**: Persistent challenges related to infrastructure availability and cost inflation limit the efficient movement of hydrocarbons, affecting realized prices and margin expansion [5] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.90X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18.80X, indicating more reasonable valuations compared to the broader market [13][12] - Over the past five years, the industry has seen an EV/EBITDA range from 3.56X to 16.04X, with a median of 6.62X [13] Company Highlights - **W&T Offshore**: An independent oil and natural gas producer with a strong presence in the Gulf of Mexico, generating positive cash flow for over 28 consecutive quarters [16][17] - **Coterra Energy**: Focused on the Permian Basin and Marcellus Shale, with a production mix weighted towards natural gas, expected earnings growth rate of 27.8% over three to five years [21][24] - **Antero Resources**: Concentrated on natural gas and liquids in the Appalachian Basin, with a projected 88.3% year-over-year growth in earnings per share for 2026 [27][29] - **APA Corporation**: An independent producer with diverse assets across the Permian Basin, Egypt, and the North Sea, showing strong earnings surprise history [32][34]

Core Insights - EQT Corp is positioned to benefit from increasing natural gas demand driven by AI data centers and other factors, making it a potential investment opportunity [1] - Kinder Morgan is recommended as a preferable investment over EQT due to its lower exposure to commodity price volatility, presenting a lower-risk option for investors [2] Company Overview - EQT Corp is a leading natural gas producer with significant resources in the Appalachian basin and extensive infrastructure, including gathering lines, storage, and transmission pipelines [4] - The company operates with a low breakeven cost of approximately $2 per MMBtu, making it one of the lowest-cost producers in the U.S. [4] Financial Performance - EQT is projected to generate between $10 billion to over $25 billion in cumulative free cash flow through 2029, assuming average gas prices between $2.75 and $5.00 per MMBtu [5] - This cash flow will support debt repayment, share repurchases, and an increase in its 1.2% dividend yield [5] Earnings Stability - EQT has significant exposure to commodity price volatility, which it attempts to manage through hedging contracts [6] - Kinder Morgan, as a midstream company, has a more stable cash flow, with approximately 69% of its earnings derived from take-or-pay and hedging contracts, minimizing commodity price risk [6] Growth Prospects - Kinder Morgan has a backlog of $9.3 billion in organic expansion projects expected to be completed by mid-2030, including three large-scale gas pipelines [7] - The company is also exploring an additional $10 billion in natural gas project opportunities that may be approved soon [8]

Commodity Prices - Agricultural commodity prices in the grain/oilseed, soft, and animal protein sectors experienced losses in September, with the exception of October lean hog futures, which gained 5.08% [1] - Cooperative weather conditions contributed to lower prices for soybean, corn, and wheat, as indicated in the September WASDE report, which remained bullish on supplies but bearish on prices [6] - Soft commodities saw declines across the board, with cocoa futures leading with a 12.46% price drop, while coffee, cocoa, and orange juice prices remained elevated due to previous price surges [7] - The end of the 2025 grilling season led to lower prices for live and feeder cattle, although beef futures remained near record highs [8] Precious Metals - Gold reached a record high of nearly $3,900 per ounce, marking its eighth consecutive record quarterly peak, despite being the worst-performing precious metal in September [2] - Silver futures saw a significant increase, reaching their highest level since 2011, approaching the $49.82 high from that year and the all-time peak of $50.36 from 1980 [3] - Palladium outperformed silver with a 14.54% gain in September, while platinum futures also surged by 15.62%, reaching their highest price since February 2014 [4] - Precious metals significantly outperformed other commodities in September, with all four trading on the CME's COMEX and NYMEX divisions posting double-digit percentage gains [5] Energy Sector - In September, WTI and Brent futures prices were slightly lower due to increased OPEC+ production and U.S. energy policy, although geopolitical tensions provided some support [9] - Oil products reflected seasonal trends, with gasoline futures showing a marginal gain and heating oil futures posting a more significant increase [10] - Natural gas prices experienced a slight decline of under 1% in September, but are expected to rise as the peak demand season approaches [16] Stock Market and Economic Indicators - The stock market saw gains, with the S&P 500 rising 3.53% and reaching record highs in September, while the U.S. dollar index posted a marginal gain despite concerns over tariffs and rising debt levels [12][13][14] - The Federal Reserve cut the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points in September, marking the first rate cut in 2025 [12] Future Outlook - Factors to watch in October include the potential for gold to reach $4,000 and silver's approach to new record highs, while livestock futures remain elevated despite expected price weakness in meats and gasoline [15] - The commodities market is anticipated to experience continued volatility in October and beyond, influenced by geopolitical events and seasonal demand changes [19]