Money, power, politics. Tonight, the November jobs report may include a warning sign about the state of the economy. More jobs were added in November than expected.That was largely driven by the healthc care sector, but unemployment rose to 4.6%. Now, that is the highest level since September 2021 when the economy was still coming out of the COVID pandemic. Joining me now to discuss is Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan and Jean Sperling, former director ...

Diane, how would you describe uh this. Is it abnormal. Is it funky.Are we just in a waiting period of transition. What What do you say is going on here. >> Well, it certainly is an early chill for the holiday season, but I think you know consumers are still spending, which is ironic.The core retail sales, which goes into the GDP calculation for the retail sales data, actually was up 0.9%. So much better than that headline figure suggested. and data for September and August were revised up.So, we came into t ...

Labor Market & Economic Growth - The labor market shows weakness with the highest unemployment rate and lowest year-over-year wage growth in four years [2] - Despite weak job growth, the economy is still moving forward, avoiding a recession, but is described as a "sickly tortoise" [3] - The economy is expected to experience weak fourth-quarter GDP growth, potentially around 1% [9] - The economy may grow at 3% in the first half of next year and 1% in the second half, resulting in approximately 15% growth for the year if a recession is avoided [8] - Labor supply is limited, with a shrinking native-born working-age population and near-zero net immigration, making it difficult for the economy to grow beyond 15% of trend rates [7][8] Consumer Spending & Fiscal Stimulus - Consumer spending is expected to increase in the first half of next year due to income tax refunds, with the average refund projected to be $4,000, up from $3,200 this year [4] - The boost in consumer spending from tax refunds is considered temporary ("sugar, not protein") and unsustainable in the second half of the year [6] Investment & Sector Performance - While there's a significant data center boom, other investment spending, such as heavy truck sales and home building, is weak [10][11] - Low oil prices are hindering drilling activity in the energy sector [11]

Key Takeaways In the past, life for a young adult might have followed a familiar trajectory to that of one's parents: go to college (or don't), move out, get a job, marry, and purchase a home. However, some young Americans haven't moved out of mom and dad's house just yet. In 2005, 11% of 25 to 34 year olds reported living with parents, but by 2023, 16% were, according to Census research. So what's keeping more young adults at home? Researchers speculate that this cohort could be opting to live at home for ...

And if I could follow up on the outlook there, it it it seems like with the additional GDP growth coupled with easing inflation and a fairly steady unemployment rate, this seems like a pretty optimistic outlook uh for next year. Um what's given rise to that. Is this an early bet on AI.Is there some sense of uh improve improving productivity out there. What's what's driving that. >> So a number of things are driving uh what's happening in the forecast.And I I would say if you if you look broadly at outside f ...

And if I could follow up on the outlook there, it it it seems like with the additional GDP growth coupled with easing inflation and a fairly steady unemployment rate, this seems like a pretty optimistic outlook uh for next year. Um what's given rise to that. Is this an early bet on AI.Is there some sense of uh improve improving productivity out there. What's what's driving that. >> So a number of things are driving uh what's happening in the forecast.And I I would say if you if you look broadly at outside f ...

with us now at Post 9. First on CNBC, chief economist of the Mastercard Economic [music] Institute, Michelle Meyer. Great to have you back at Post 9.So, the outlook for the US is is even better than this year. >> That's what our expectation is. Yeah.Because when you think about this year, it was a story of uncertainty. It was a story of headlines. Um it was a story of change.And I think in 2026, it's going to be a story of an economy that's adapting, an economy that's proven to be much more dynamic. So, we' ...

Core Viewpoint - Walmart has shown strong performance in 2023, with shares up 25%, outpacing both Amazon and the S&P 500, driven by two key catalysts: online advertising and e-commerce growth [1]. Group 1: Online Advertising - Walmart's global ad business grew by 53% year over year in Q3 FY26, indicating significant potential for revenue growth and profit margin enhancement [4]. - Online ads, while not a large part of Walmart's business, are growing rapidly and can improve profit margins compared to the low single-digit margins typical in the retail industry [3]. - The contribution of online ads is reflected in Walmart's 34% year-over-year net income growth, despite only a 6% increase in revenue [6]. Group 2: E-commerce Growth - E-commerce sales have shown strong performance, with a 27% year-over-year growth in Q3 FY26, demonstrating Walmart's ability to compete effectively with Amazon [7]. - Walmart's stores function as logistics hubs, allowing for efficient nationwide delivery and reduced shipping costs, which supports e-commerce growth [7]. - The increase in e-commerce sales is also expected to drive higher ad revenue, mirroring trends seen at Amazon [8]. Group 3: Consumer Spending - The company's performance is closely tied to consumer spending, which needs to remain resilient for continued revenue growth [9]. - Despite potential consumer pullbacks, Walmart's focus on low prices positions it well during economic downturns, allowing it to thrive even in challenging economic conditions [10]. - Recent data from Adobe Analytics indicates a 7.7% year-over-year increase in Cyber Monday sales, suggesting continued consumer spending, which could bode well for Walmart in 2026 [11].

Consumer spending stalled in September as inflation remained stubborn, shutdown-delayed report shows.https://t.co/jLoCPwEtr4 ...

Consumer spending stalled in September as inflation remained stubborn, shutdown-delayed report shows.https://t.co/YUv2lvJLIZ ...