Market Volatility and Positioning - Market volatility is expected to be a feature this year, driven by high valuations and earnings expectations, indicating limited cushion for absorbing bad news [2][3] - Recent corrections are viewed more as positioning and sentiment resets rather than true growth scares, suggesting they are likely to be shorter and shallower [3][4] Key Metrics to Monitor - Two critical metrics to watch are market leadership and intermarket analysis, particularly high yield spreads, which remain contained despite concerning headlines [6][7] - The ratio of equal weight consumer discretionary to consumer staples has softened, which could indicate pressure on consumer spending, a significant driver of GDP [8][9] Consumer Spending Insights - Recent jobs data showed stronger-than-expected results, but retail sales numbers were weaker, presenting conflicting signals about consumer behavior [10][11] - The K-shaped economy is highlighted, where consumption is primarily driven by wealthy households, necessitating a strong stock market to sustain their spending [12][13] Software Sector Analysis - The software sector is experiencing significant selling pressure, referred to as "software as a soreness," indicating that trades in this area are likely to be short-term [16] - The software index has shown oversold conditions, but any bounce has been short-lived, suggesting ongoing challenges within the sector [16][17]

Market Overview - Asian markets reacted to stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data, which dampened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and negatively impacted U.S. stocks [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index reached 58,000 for the first time, driven by renewed confidence in domestic politics and the ruling administration's economic agenda [1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were lower at 27,206 compared to the last close of 27,266.38 [1] U.S. Market Performance - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index increased by 0.42% in early trading [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a three-day winning streak, dropping 66.74 points (0.13%) to close at 50,121.40 [2] - The S&P 500 index remained nearly flat at 6,941.47, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.16% to 23,066.47 [2] Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job growth of 130,000 in January, significantly higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000 [3] - December's job growth was revised down to 48,000, indicating a stronger labor market that has reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Consumer Spending - A separate report indicated that consumer spending in December was flat, missing the expected 0.4% monthly gain [4]

Group 1: Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices - March WTI crude oil closed down -0.40 (-0.62%) and March RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0263 (-1.32%) on Tuesday, reflecting a decline in prices due to stagnation in US retail sales [1] - The stagnation in December retail sales, which were unchanged m/m compared to an expected increase of +0.4% m/m, indicates weakness in consumer spending, negatively impacting economic growth and energy demand [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Concerns over escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have added a risk premium to crude oil prices, with the US Department of Transportation advising American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Fears of potential military action by the US against Iran, should negotiations fail regarding Iran's nuclear program, could disrupt key shipping lanes and impact Iran's crude production of 3.3 million bpd, which is significant as Iran is OPEC's fourth-largest producer [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, is contributing to global oil supply and is bearish for prices [4] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with no resolution in sight, is expected to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which supports oil prices [5]

Group 1 - Retail sales in December were flat compared to November, which saw a 0.6% increase, while economists had anticipated a 0.4% rise for December [2][4] - The report indicated a decline in sales for various sectors, including furniture, home furnishings, and electronics, with only building materials and garden stores showing a slight increase [3][8] - The overall economic environment is mixed, with GDP growth being robust but job creation slowing significantly, averaging only 28,000 jobs per month since December [5][6] Group 2 - The upcoming consumer price report is expected to show a 0.3% increase in December, matching November's figures, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7] - Some retailers, like Walmart, are performing well due to their competitive pricing, while others are facing challenges, leading to store closures and reorganizations under bankruptcy protection [7][8]

Core Insights - Consumer activity experienced a significant slowdown during the December holiday shopping season due to adverse weather, tariff impacts, and persistent inflation [1] - Retail sales remained flat month-over-month, contrasting with a 0.6% increase in November, and fell short of economists' expectations for a 0.4% increase [1] - On an annual basis, retail sales rose by 2.4%, a decline from the 3.3% growth rate observed in November, while sales excluding autos increased by 3.3% year-over-year in December [2] Retail Performance - The December shopping pace did not keep up with inflation, as the consumer price index rose by 2.7% [2] - Higher-end consumers maintained brisk spending throughout much of 2025, while lower-income consumers exhibited more cautious spending behavior [2] - Multiple retail categories reported losses in December, with only a few categories showing notable gains [3]

Core Insights - McDonald's is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings, with analysts predicting revenue and profit growth, potentially leading to new stock highs [1][1] - Current options pricing indicates that McDonald's stock could move up to 3% in either direction by the end of the week, with a potential high of around $336 and a low of $315 [1][1] - The stock has increased approximately 6% since the beginning of the year, reflecting a broader market trend of shifting from tech stocks to consumer-focused stocks [1][1] Financial Expectations - Analysts forecast adjusted earnings per share of $3.04, with a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $6.83 billion [1][1] - Same restaurant sales are anticipated to rise by 3.7% compared to the same period last year [1][1] Analyst Sentiment - The majority of analysts are bullish on McDonald's stock, with eight out of eleven recommending a buy, one a sell, and two neutral [1][1] - The mean target price for the stock is $343, suggesting a 5% upside from the recent close [1][1]

2026 is the new 2016. If you've been online at all lately, you've probably heard this idea and seen the throwback playlist and arguments over bringing back skinny jeans. Google searches for 2016 esthetic spiked to all time highs this year.So this trend isn't just living on your feed, it's also showing up in real interest. But what if we analyze this 2016 trend from a market perspective. Let's focus on retail, because people have to be buying these skinny jeans from somewhere, right.For investors, this socia ...

Core Viewpoint - Block, Inc. has experienced significant underperformance in its stock price compared to the broader market and sector indices, raising concerns about its growth prospects amid challenging economic conditions [2][3][6]. Company Overview - Block, Inc. is headquartered in Oakland, California, and focuses on building ecosystems for commerce and financial products and services, with a market capitalization of $34.5 billion [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, Block's stock has declined by 37%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by approximately 15.4% [2]. - Year-to-date, Block's stock is down 12.8%, contrasting with a 1.1% rise in the S&P 500 [2]. Sector Comparison - Compared to the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), which has gained about 24.8% over the past year, Block's performance has been notably weaker [3]. Business Challenges - The decline in Block's shares is attributed to weak consumer spending in its Cash App business, increased competition, and a challenging macroeconomic environment [6]. Earnings Expectations - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts project Block's earnings per share (EPS) to decline by 75.1% to $0.84 on a diluted basis [7]. - The company's earnings surprise history is mixed, with three out of the last four quarters beating consensus estimates [7]. Analyst Ratings - Among 43 analysts covering Block, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of 26 "Strong Buy" ratings, four "Moderate Buys," 11 "Holds," and two "Strong Sells" [7]. - Recent coverage initiated by Cantor Fitzgerald includes an "Overweight" rating with a price target of $87, indicating a potential upside of 53.2% from current levels [8]. - The mean price target of $83.39 suggests a 46.8% premium to Block's current price, while the highest target of $105 indicates an ambitious upside potential of 84.9% [8].

[music] Hello and welcome to Asking for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next [music] half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today, then a move stock tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing [music] on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving right into.The market kicking off a new month with signs of strength. [music] Investors shaking off those concerns about the wild moves of the metals and Bitcoin. They're also focu ...

Core Insights - Mastercard reported a higher fourth-quarter profit driven by resilient consumer spending and international travel, with net income rising to $4.06 billion or $4.52 per share, surpassing consensus estimates of $4.25 per share [1] Financial Performance - Net revenue increased by 17.6% year over year to $8.81 billion, slightly above expectations of $8.78 billion [2] - Gross dollar volume rose by 7% during the quarter, indicating steady transaction growth [2] - For the full year, Mastercard reported net revenue growth of 16%, or 15% on a currency-neutral basis [4] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending remained resilient despite tariff-related uncertainties, with shoppers focusing on essential purchases and promotions during the holiday season [2] - International travel continued to recover, supporting cross-border transaction activity [2] Revenue Drivers - Cross-border spending was highlighted as a higher-yield growth driver compared to domestic volumes, making international transactions a key contributor to revenue growth [3] - Value-added services and solutions revenue increased by 23%, or 21% on a currency-neutral basis [4]