Everything becomes a casino when the money is destroyed.We will look back at the decision to pursue QE coming out of the Global Financial Crisis as one of the biggest monetary policy mistakes in history.Look around at zero day options, sports gambling, prediction markets, altcoins, and many more examples.You can blame the market participants, but they are merely following the incentives.The real blame lies with those who decided to debase the currency at an accelerated rate. ...

Thesis Summary Newmont Corporation (NEM) is not just a gold miner. It is my insurance policy against Federal Reserve policy, fiscal dominance, and currency debasement. The Fed has made its position clear. Liquidity is returning, balance-sheet expansion has resumed under a ...

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that Harvard University increased its Bitcoin investment from $117 million to $443 million in Q3, while boosting its gold ETF allocation from $102 million to $235 million. Harvard is effectively betting on currency debasement, favoring Bitcoin over gold at a 2-to-1 ratio. https://t.co/0OrE88vcUa ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has inherent disadvantages as a store of value compared to gold, as highlighted by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, emphasizing the reliance on external networks for transaction processing [1][3]. Group 1: Bitcoin vs. Gold - Dalio expressed a preference for gold over Bitcoin, citing concerns about Bitcoin's long-term viability and its potential use by central banks for international trade [3]. - Gold's advantage lies in its physical form, allowing it to be held without dependence on external entities, while Bitcoin requires a network for transactions [6]. - The price of gold has reached record highs this year due to fears of currency debasement, which Dalio has previously warned investors to hedge against [2]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Dalio has allocated a "small percentage" of his portfolio to Bitcoin, estimating it to be around 1% of his overall wealth, while suggesting a 15% allocation to Bitcoin and gold for investors [5]. - The Czech National Bank has made its first investment in crypto, amounting to $100 million across Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized bank deposits, indicating a growing institutional interest in digital assets [4]. Group 3: Concerns about Bitcoin - Dalio raised concerns about Bitcoin's potential to be tracked and controlled, especially with advancements in quantum computing, which could pose risks to its security [3][4]. - The transparency of Bitcoin transactions on a public ledger makes it relatively easy to trace once linked to an identity, although coin mixers can obscure transaction flows [5].

Monetary Policy & Market Impact - The market's current operating principle is likened to the 1970s, but the Fed raising rates to 6% today would devastate the stock market, housing market, and Treasury market [1] - Empirical evidence suggests Treasury market dysfunction has been observed multiple times before reaching 5% in the last 5 years [2] Debasement & Investment Strategy - The debasement trade is considered a secular trend rather than a temporary event, implying a long-term perspective [3] - The recommended investment strategy is to buy dips rather than sell rallies, indicating a bullish outlook [3] - While 20-30% corrections are possible, they do not signal the end of the market [2] Currency & Debt - The current situation is characterized as a currency issue stemming from choices made over the last 30 years with borrowed money [3]

Core Insights - The "debasement trade" narrative in cryptocurrency is gaining popularity, with a focus on moving from government-backed assets to "hard" assets like Bitcoin and gold [1][2] - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against the declining value of fiat currencies due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins and independence from central banks [2][3] - The increasing global debt and persistent inflation concerns are driving momentum for the debasement trade, positioning Bitcoin as a strategy to safeguard wealth [3] Industry Context - Bitcoin was created in response to the 2008 financial crisis, with its genesis block referencing bank bailouts, highlighting its role as a solution to traditional financial instability [4][5] - The cryptocurrency's fundamental thesis has always aligned with the debasement trade concept, emphasizing its purpose as a safeguard against monetary dilution [5] - Financial markets are reacting to US policy changes, which can lead to abrupt market shifts, as seen in the recent market crash related to tariff fears [6]

National Debt & Currency Debasement - US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, a concerning milestone indicating potential financial instability [1] - The rapid increase in global M2 money supply, growing by $8 trillion in just 6 months, highlights an addiction to money printing [2] - Global M2 growth rate is currently at 12% annually, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - Currency debasement is anticipated as a consequence of the escalating national debt, potentially impacting economic value [3] Investment & Economic Outlook - The analysis suggests opting out of the current financial system with a portion of one's economic value as a potential strategy [4] - A correlation is drawn between the rising national debt, the declining dollar value, and the potential appreciation of Bitcoin [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged over 55% year-to-date, surpassing $4,300 per ounce, but the market is currently experiencing a price pullback, leading to uncertainty among investors about the continuation of the bull run [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The current gold market is driven by a structural shift towards hard assets, with gold being viewed as a crucial monetary asset amid currency debasement concerns [2] - Central banks are buying gold at a historic pace, adding 415 tons to their reserves in the first half of 2025, with countries like China and Poland diversifying their holdings [3] - Gold has overtaken the Euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset, providing a strong price floor [3] Group 2: Future Projections - Analysts from major institutions, including Bank of America, suggest that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce due to its re-evaluation as a monetary asset rather than just an inflation hedge [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors can gain exposure to gold through two primary strategies: direct price exposure via SPDR Gold Trust or leveraged growth through gold mining companies [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust is a physically-backed ETF with over $140 billion in assets under management, providing a straightforward option for tracking gold prices [6] - For higher returns, investing in gold mining companies like Newmont Corporation offers potential for amplified gains due to operational leverage [8][9] Group 4: Company Insights - Newmont Corporation reported a record $1.7 billion in quarterly free cash flow and maintains a low net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.1x, indicating strong financial health [11] - Newmont's management is focused on returning capital to shareholders, maintaining a quarterly dividend and authorizing a $3 billion share repurchase program [11] - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF provides diversification by holding a basket of leading mining companies, including Newmont and Barrick Gold, with nearly $24 billion in assets [12] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Recent market actions indicate strong investor conviction, with over $1.7 billion poured into the SPDR Gold Trust during a recent price pullback, suggesting that investors view the dip as a buying opportunity [10] - The fundamental case for gold is strengthened by ongoing central bank buying and concerns over fiat currency stability, making the recent price correction a strategic window for investors [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has resumed his advocacy for Bitcoin, labeling it as "energy money" that cannot be faked, contrasting it with fiat currency which can be easily debased by governments [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin Advocacy - Musk's recent comments have led to a significant rebound in Bitcoin's price, rising to approximately $112,000 after hitting a low of $102,000 during a liquidation event that erased over $19 billion in leveraged positions [3]. - This endorsement represents Musk's most robust pro-Bitcoin stance since Tesla's $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin in 2021 [3]. - Musk's history with Bitcoin has been marked by volatility, including a 10% price surge when he added "bitcoin" to his Twitter bio in January 2021 and a subsequent 12% decline after reversing Tesla's decision to accept Bitcoin due to environmental concerns [4]. Group 2: Financial Impact and Holdings - Tesla sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings in Q2 2022 for $936 million, retaining only $184 million worth [4]. - SpaceX reportedly wrote down $373 million in Bitcoin holdings between 2021 and 2022, yet still holds 6,977 BTC valued at approximately $818 million [5]. Group 3: AI and Energy Concerns - Musk's endorsement of Bitcoin is linked to concerns over currency debasement driven by the funding needs for AI infrastructure expansion [7]. - The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts that data centers could consume between 325 and 580 terawatt-hours annually by 2028, which is equivalent to powering 30-50 million homes [7]. - To meet the projected energy demands of AI, it is estimated that 40-70 new nuclear reactors would be required by 2028, each generating around 8,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy yearly [7].

Market Analysis & Currency Dynamics - In USD terms, US assets showed significant growth since COVID, with NASDAQ up 165%, S&P up 102%, and home prices up 56% [1] - When redenominated in gold, these gains shrink to flat, indicating a potential overvaluation in USD terms [1] - When redenominated in Bitcoin, NASDAQ is down 78%, S&P is down 84%, and home prices are down 87%, suggesting a collapse in the unit of account [1] - The perceived growth in USD terms may be a reflection of the currency's debasement rather than actual asset appreciation [2] - Gold and Bitcoin are marking down the old world in real time, indicating a shift in how investors perceive value [2] Imperial Carry Trade & Currency Risk - The US is executing the last phase of an imperial carry trade, attracting global capital and inflating nominal asset prices [2][3] - This strategy exports currency risk to those holding dollar claims [3] - Historically, empires decline when their citizens start measuring value in alternative units [3] - A critical mass of investors are now measuring the world in Bitcoin and gold instead of dollars, signaling a potential regime shift [3] - Once this shift hardens, the existing regime is effectively over [4]