行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 45 期） 海外市场观察：JOBY 触及百亿美金市值里 推荐（维持） 程碑，西锐再创股价新高 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 1）从商业模式理解，我们认为公司，生产端属于高端制造业，航空制造门槛 高壁垒高，24 年前三大市占率近半；销售端属于高端消费品，公司深耕私人 飞机领域，面向 C 端客户为主，产品近年来持续提价，24 年相较于 21 年，公 司 SR2X 系列售价提升了 26%，愿景喷气机提升了 24%，典型类高端消费品 属性。2）海外比较：我们观察海外上市公司中，巴航工业 Wind PEttm 23 倍， 德事隆集团 Wind PE ttm 18.5 倍，均明显高于西锐。注：我们预计公司 202 ...

Company Overview - Joby Aviation is a developer of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, with its first model, the S4, capable of carrying a pilot and four passengers, traveling 100 miles on a single charge, and reaching speeds of 200 mph [4] - The company is also developing a hydrogen-powered version of its aircraft, which charges faster and has a range five times greater than the S4 [4] - Joby is backed by significant investors, including Toyota and Delta Air Lines, and aims to provide a greener alternative to traditional helicopters [5] Financial Performance - Joby Aviation's stock has not performed well since its public debut, trading at approximately $11, up from an opening price of $10.62 [1] - The company generated only $136,000 in revenue from its USAF contract in 2024, with a net loss of $608 million, significantly missing its projected revenue targets [9] - Analysts expect Joby to generate $2 million in revenue in 2025, with a narrowed net loss of $543 million, primarily from its USAF contract [10] Future Prospects - If Joby gains full FAA approval for commercial flights and expands its air taxi services, revenue could increase to $60 million in 2026 and more than triple to $213 million in 2027 [11] - The company holds a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to deliver up to nine eVTOL aircraft, with two already delivered [7] - Joby secured over $1 billion in funding in 2024, ending the latest quarter with $813 million in cash and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, providing room for further fundraising [13] Market Position - Joby Aviation has a market cap of $9.59 billion, trading at 45 times its projected revenue for 2027, while its competitor Archer Aviation trades at 15 times its projected revenue [14] - The company is seen as potentially too expensive relative to its growth potential and industry peers, raising concerns about its valuation [15]

There's Tesla Inc. TSLA, and then there's the Tesla that flies — and it might just be Archer Aviation Inc. ACHR.As defense chatter ramps up over the Trump administration’s defense push, investors are starting to zero in on next-generation military technology. High on that radar: drone fleets, autonomous logistics and electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs). Archer checks all three boxes — and it's already in motion.While most retail eyes are on traditional defense contractors, the smarter tr ...

Core Insights - Archer Aviation Inc. is advancing towards the commercial launch of its electric air taxi, Midnight, with significant milestones achieved, including its first flight in Abu Dhabi in July 2025 [1][10] - The increasing urban traffic and demand for better transport options are driving investor interest in the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market [2] - Archer Aviation is positioned as a leader in the eVTOL market through strategic partnerships, regulatory progress, and global expansion plans, making it an attractive option for next-gen aerospace investors [3] Stock Performance - Archer Aviation's stock has increased by 113.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense industry's growth of 19.6%, the broader Aerospace sector's gain of 26.8%, and the S&P 500's return of 11.6% [4] - Other industry players like Joby Aviation and Embraer have also shown strong performance, with shares rising by 86.5% and 85.4% respectively in the same timeframe [5] Growth Drivers - Archer Aviation is building momentum through partnerships, including an agreement with Indonesia's PT. IKN to introduce Midnight as part of smart city plans, making Indonesia the third country to join its Launch Edition program [6] - The company has partnered with Jetex to develop infrastructure for air taxi services, supporting its commercial launch plans [7] - Archer Aviation is part of a five-nation regulatory alliance aimed at streamlining global certification processes for eVTOL aircraft, which could expedite its entry into international markets [10] Market Outlook - The global urban air mobility market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% from 2025 to 2040, benefiting companies like Archer Aviation as demand for urban air mobility increases [11] - The successful commercial availability of Midnight jets is expected to enhance Archer Aviation's growth prospects [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year improvement for Archer Aviation's earnings in 2025, with a projected decline for 2026 [13] - The consensus estimates for the second quarter and third quarter of 2025 show a year-over-year growth of 16.67% [14] Valuation - Archer Aviation's stock is currently trading at a trailing 12-month Price/Book (P/B TTM) ratio of 5.85, slightly below the industry average of 5.99 [15] - Comparatively, Embraer is trading at a P/B TTM of 2.89, while Joby Aviation is at 11.36 [16]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 7月10日，第二届低空飞行器创新材料及智能制造产业峰会在上海举行。大会汇聚了来自低空飞行器上 下游领域的500余位业界领军代表、高校及科研机构专家，共同探讨低空飞行器产业链创新路径与制造 技术升级。作为eVTOL（电动垂直起降飞行器）领域头部企业，御风未来创始人、董事长兼CTO刘十 一受邀出席并做行业技术分享。他表示，唯有实现高安全性与高效经济的平衡，eVTOL"空中出租车"才 有机会真正开启低空出行的规模化时代。他进一步阐述，复合翼构型在巡航效率、航程、安全性等关键 指标上实现了更优平衡，更契合未来低空出行高频次、常态化的需求。 御风未来创始人、董事 长兼CTO刘十一 目前，垂直起降固定翼eVTOL主流技术路径以复合翼和倾转旋翼为代表，两者原理上都是通过改变推 力的大小和方向，实现垂直起降和向前飞行的转换，区别在于复合翼通过推力合成的方式实现推力矢 量，倾转旋翼则通过机械方式实现推力矢量。刘十一认为，两种构型的共性需求是，在完成垂直起飞到 加速的转换功率是巡航的7倍，是悬停的1.3倍，所以两种构型都需预留相近的电机功率，电机"死 重" ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The transportation industry is experiencing significant innovation, particularly with advancements in electric batteries and the development of electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) [1] - eVTOLs are small, electric battery-powered aircraft that can operate in urban environments, offering a potential alternative to traditional taxis for short-haul routes [2] - Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the market for next-generation flights could reach $1 trillion by 2040, indicating strong growth potential in the eVTOL sector [3] Group 2: Government Support - The U.S. government has shown a favorable attitude towards the eVTOL industry, with an executive order signed by President Trump aimed at accelerating the development of drones and flying cars by reducing regulatory barriers [4] Group 3: Archer Aviation's Business Model - Archer Aviation distinguishes itself from other eVTOL startups by not only manufacturing aircraft but also creating a vertically integrated urban air-mobility service, which includes operating air taxi routes in partnership with local entities [5] - This services-led strategy could provide Archer Aviation with a competitive advantage against Chinese rivals and lead to recurring high-margin revenue, enhancing long-term investor returns [6] Group 4: Financial Performance - In the first quarter, Archer Aviation reported minimal revenue and a significant loss of $144 million, primarily due to extensive research and development expenditures related to its Midnight eVTOL aircraft [8] - The company has initiated test flights in Abu Dhabi to gather data for its commercial rollout, which is anticipated to begin in the U.S. by 2026 [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Archer Aviation plans to complete FAA testing and establish a sustainable commercial operation by mid-2026, supported by over $1 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet [10] - However, there are concerns regarding the predictability of regulatory milestones and potential delays, as highlighted by a report from Culper Research suggesting that commercialization may be further off than expected [11] - Management has denied claims of misleading investors, but the company remains in an early and uncertain stage of its development journey [12]

每经记者｜郑雨航 每经编辑｜兰素英 ｜2025年7月3日 星期四｜ NO.1 OpenAI与甲骨文被曝加码"星际之门" 点评：微软的裁员计划反映了其在经济不确定性和市场竞争加剧背景下的战略调整。 点评：Erebor的成立反映了科技界对传统金融服务的创新需求，特别是在SVB倒闭后，市场对初创企业 和加密货币公司的金融服务支持出现了空白。 NO.3 美国eVTOL公司Joby Aviation在迪拜完成试飞 据外媒，阿联酋迪拜交通部门与美国知名电动垂直起降飞行器（eVTOL）公司Joby Aviation合作，成功 完成了首次空中出租车试飞，这意味当地将很快迎来一种新的交通方式。据悉，Joby的这款空中出租车 采用垂直起降技术，可容纳4名乘客和1名驾驶员，最高时速可达320公里。 点评：未来，随着eVTOL技术的进一步成熟和法规的完善，eVTOL有望在全球范围内得到更广泛的应 用。 NO.4 微软宣布年内第二次大规模裁员 当地时间周三，美国科技巨头微软公司宣布了新的裁员计划，可能影响到9000个工作岗位，这也是该公 司今年第二次大规模裁员，目的是控制成本。微软一位发言人表示，计划裁员人数不到公司总员工数的 4%， ...

Core Viewpoint - Joby Aviation, Inc. is positioned as a potential leader in the eVTOL industry, likened to the "Uber" of air taxis, due to its first-mover advantage [1] Company Analysis - Joby Aviation was initiated with a buy rating, highlighting its strategic advantage in the emerging air taxi market [1] - The company is viewed as undervalued, presenting investment opportunities based on thorough research and analysis of financial statements and market trends [1] Industry Insights - The eVTOL industry is expected to grow significantly, with Joby Aviation at the forefront of this transformation in urban mobility [1]

Core Insights - Joby Aviation's stock surged to a new 52-week high, driven by a significant announcement regarding successful wingborne flights in Dubai, marking a pivotal moment for the company [1][2][11] Group 1: Company Achievements - Joby Aviation has commenced piloting wingborne flights with production-configured aircraft in Dubai, validating its business model and operational readiness for commercial market entry [2][3] - The successful flights are a precursor to launching commercial passenger service in Dubai by Q1 2026, in collaboration with Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority [3][4] - Joby has secured exclusive rights to operate air taxis in Dubai for six years, with ground support infrastructure being developed, including the construction of a vertiport at Dubai International Airport [4][10] Group 2: Market Reaction - The announcement triggered a significant market response, with Joby’s stock price increasing over 14% in a single trading day, supported by a trading volume of over 41 million shares [1][6] - A notable spike in call options trading, up 209%, indicated strong bullish sentiment among traders, contributing to the stock's rally [6][8] - The stock's rise was further fueled by a high short interest of approximately 14.6%, creating conditions for a potential short squeeze as investors were forced to buy shares to cover their positions [7][8] Group 3: Future Catalysts - Investors are now focused on upcoming milestones, particularly the FAA type certification process, with the next phase of Type Inspection Authorization flight testing targeted for 2025 [9][10] - Joby's financial performance will be scrutinized in its next quarterly report, expected on August 6, 2025, which will reflect the impact of a $250 million capital infusion from Toyota [10] - Continued operational advancements in Dubai and manufacturing ramp-up in Dayton, Ohio, will be critical indicators of Joby's ability to scale its operations [10]

Core Insights - Joby Aviation's stock surged approximately 12% following significant progress in its operations in the United Arab Emirates, with the delivery of its first aircraft and successful pilot-operated flight tests, aiming for official service launch in 2026 [1] - The company is recognized as a pioneer in developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, which are gaining attention for their potential to alleviate ground traffic congestion and reduce carbon emissions [1] - Joby has secured a six-year exclusive operating agreement with the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) for air taxi services, with commercial operations expected to commence in February 2024 [1] Expansion Plans - Joby is constructing a vertical takeoff and landing airport at Dubai International Airport, with additional sites planned at Palm Jumeirah, Downtown Dubai, and Dubai Marina [2] - The company has signed air taxi service agreements with three government entities in Abu Dhabi for operations in 2024 [2] - Joby is also expanding in the Middle East, highlighted by a significant investment from Saudi company Abdul Latif Jameel, which announced plans to invest approximately $1 billion to procure up to 300 eVTOL aircraft [2] Financial Performance - Joby's stock has increased over 32% this year, with a market capitalization exceeding $9 billion [3]