Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", indicating an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [67] Core View of the Report - In 2025, the market is driven by incremental funds from institutional liability - side changes, expected to bring 3 trillion yuan in incremental funds. The upward trend of A - shares will continue in the second half of the year. Active equity products will enter a new golden age, and mid - to high - volatility products are likely to attract incremental funds [5][15] Summary According to the Directory 1. Three Rounds of Market Review Driven by Funds: Individual Stock Era, Group - Holding Era, and Active Management Era - From 2014 - 2015, it was the individual stock era driven by retail investors and leverage. Policy encouraged capital market development, with IPO restart, Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect launch, and liquidity release. Leverage and retail investors drove up market turnover and margin trading. Individual stocks and the index outperformed active equity funds [16][20] - From 2019 - 2021, it was the group - holding era of public funds. Core assets like Maotai Index and Ningzuohe aligned with industrial trends. Public funds had a positive feedback loop of new issuance, pricing power, and performance. Active equity funds outperformed the index, and non - heavy - held stocks by public funds performed the weakest [16][25] - In 2025, it is the active management era. Driven by institutional allocation, active equity funds are emerging, with their median returns comparable to individual stocks and outperforming the index [16] 2. The Rise of Active Management: Difficulty in Achieving Excess Returns through Heavy - Holding and Group - Holding, and Alpha Creation through Stock - Picking Ability - In this round of the market, heavy - held stocks by funds have not obtained significant excess returns. As of July 24, 2025, the top 5 heavy - held stocks by institutions only had a 3% excess return, compared to 75% in 2015 and 84% in 2020 [30][31] - The proportion of A - shares held by funds and the concentration of fund holdings are at a low level in the past five years. The proportion of fund - held market value decreased from 14% in 2021 to 7% - 8% in Q1 2025, and the concentration indicators such as CR100 and CR50 have also declined [34] - Fund heavy - held companies are shifting towards small - and medium - market - capitalization enterprises. The proportion of companies below 30 billion yuan in fund holdings increased from 8% in Q4 2020 to 14% in Q2 2025 [35] 3. Three Factors Resonate to Push up the Bottom Central System of A - shares - In terms of funds, major institutional types in 2025 are expected to bring 3 trillion yuan in incremental funds into the market, including 816.2 billion yuan from insurance, 326.8 - 584.8 billion yuan from wealth management, 939.1 billion yuan from public funds, and 583.3 billion yuan from trusts [42][44] - From the perspective of stock - bond ratio, non - bank funds prefer equity assets. With the decline of broad - spectrum interest rates, the 10 - year Treasury yield cannot meet the return requirements of liabilities. Since the beginning of this year, the scale of fixed - income + funds has expanded significantly, indicating strong demand for equity - like asset allocation [45] - A - share earnings are at the bottom. As of Q1 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of all A - shares (ex - finance) turned positive, mainly due to the low - base effect and cost management. Structural improvement is more worthy of attention [51] 4. Taking Fixed - Income + as an Example, What are the Institutional Preferences? - In terms of strategy selection, in bear markets, low - volatility products have a higher probability of achieving excellent performance, while in bull markets, high - volatility products have a higher probability of achieving excellent performance. In the current market, high - volatility products among the top 20% in performance ranking account for over 60% [54][59] - In terms of fund flow, during the 2019 - 2021 bull market, high - volatility products with excellent performance had a higher probability of net subscriptions. In 2025, funds are still in the transition from bear - market thinking to bull - market thinking, similar to 2019. Mid - to high - volatility products are likely to attract incremental funds [54][59]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the trading logic is driven by improved profit expectations rather than reality, with average weekly trading volume in the stock market rising from approximately 1.5 trillion to over 1.8 trillion since the end of June, although a marginal weakening was observed last week [1][12] - The "anti-involution" and "Yajiang" phenomena have boosted trading sentiment, enhancing risk appetite from both supply and demand sides, with the market preemptively trading on future profit improvements [1][12] - Economic pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year, with the A-share market potentially exhibiting a seesaw effect in August and September, making monetary policy a key timing consideration for the third quarter [1][12] Group 2 - The first phase of "anti-involution" is ongoing, with a return to the essence of distribution and demand expected after the initial heat subsides. The first phase focuses on cyclical trading, influenced by supply-side reforms since 2016, which have altered market perceptions of excessive competition in related industries [2][13] - The essence of "anti-involution" is to break the vicious cycle of "low price → reduced quality → internal competition" based on improved production efficiency from supply-side reforms, aiming for sustainable development through fair distribution [2][13] - Industry allocation is categorized over time, starting with cyclical expansion (currently favoring specialized chemicals), followed by emerging industries (solar energy, automotive, lithium batteries), then social welfare (education, healthcare, childbirth), and finally consumption [2][13] Group 3 - The report highlights ongoing challenges such as deflation, weak profits, and poor demand, with the timing of monetary policy easing being crucial for sustaining the stock market in the second half of the year [3][14] - The GDP deflator index has been in negative territory for nine consecutive quarters, indicating deflationary pressure, although the second quarter GDP growth exceeded 5% due to a low base [3][14] - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is only 44%, with net profit growth declining compared to Q1, reflecting that the profit side is still stabilizing at a low point [3][14] Group 4 - Key upcoming dates include August 12 for tariffs, August 22 for the last special treasury bond issuance of the year, and the political bureau meeting in September or October, which will influence policy timing based on economic data strength [4][20] - The report suggests that after taking profits in the steel sector, attention should shift to the first phase of "anti-involution" expansion, particularly in specialized chemicals [4][20] - The anticipated resolution of trade negotiations in the third quarter is expected to gradually materialize, with tariffs having a moderate impact on inflation, and profit expectations and risk appetite likely to continue driving risk assets upward [4][22] Group 5 - The report emphasizes that the resolution of trade negotiations will temporarily boost market risk appetite, but this focus will gradually fade in future trading [6][23] - The impact of tariffs on inflation at the consumer level is expected to be relatively limited, as businesses may absorb most of the tariff costs, with wholesale and retail profit margins declining [7][29] - Despite a significant nominal retail sales increase in June, actual retail sales growth remains weak, indicating that rising prices are suppressing consumption volume growth [7][30] Group 6 - The strategy recommends continuing to go long on US stocks and maintaining a strategic bullish outlook on the US dollar, while holding a bearish steep view on US bonds [8][36] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to act, as inflation and employment data do not present immediate risks, allowing for a wait-and-see approach [8][36] - The anticipated limited impact of tariffs on inflation and the significant political pressure on the Federal Reserve suggest that there may only be one rate cut throughout the year [8][36]

4、自2011年成立以来，公司一直聚焦于锂电池储能领域。在设立之初，公司以充电宝的ODM业务为 主，随着业务的持续发展，公司在锂电池电源管理、工业设计、结构设计等方面的技术积累不断加深， 并积累了松下、LG化学、比克电池、安富利等高质量的供应商资源，拓展了包括特斯拉、宝马、超霸 电池、DSG、ClasOhlson等知名客户，产供销体系日益完善，公司实力逐步增强。 5、根据2024年年报，公司海外营收占比为95.09%，受益于人民币贬值。 来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 7月29日，华宝新能跌1.12%，成交额1.25亿元，换手率4.57%，总市值98.66亿元。 异动分析 特斯拉概念+钠离子电池+锂电池概念+储能+人民币贬值受益 1、自2011年成立以来，公司一直聚焦于锂电池储能领域。在设立之初，公司以充电宝的ODM业务为 主，随着业务的持续发展，公司在锂电池电源管理、工业设计、结构设计等方面的技术积累不断加深， 并积累了松下、LG化学、比克电池、安富利等高质量的供应商资源，拓展了包括特斯拉、宝马、超霸 电池、DSG、Clas Ohlson等知名客户。 2、2023年7月11日互动易：公司与中比新能源达成战略合作 ...

碳酸锂周报 "反内卷"情绪快速切换，波动被放大 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年7月29日 宏源期货研究所 吴金恒 从业资格号：F03100418 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021125 电话：010-82293229 投资策略 ⚫ 逻辑： ⚫ 策略:看跌期权持有 ⚫ 运行区间：64000-81000 ⚫ 资源端，国内锂云母供应扰动频发，锂辉石产量上升；锂矿进口量下降。 ⚫ 供给端，上周碳酸锂产量小幅下降，水平仍处高位，进口锂盐量下降，智利出 口锂盐量较低，回收端继续下滑。 ⚫ 需求端，新能源汽车产销量增速放缓。正极厂、电芯厂排产稳定，上周磷酸铁 锂去库、三元材料累库；储能电池排产增长，储能中标规模增长。 ⚫ 成本端，锂辉石精矿与锂云母价格大幅反弹。 ⚫ 库存上，总体去库，冶炼厂去库，下游与其他累库。 ⚫ 综上，碳酸锂基本面弱现实改观有限，下游及终端对高价承接能力有限，但供 应端扰动频发，资金与情绪影响仍大，预计碳酸锂宽幅震荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：供应端扰动持续、"反内卷"情绪快速变化 1.1碳酸锂行情回顾 ⚫ 上周，碳酸锂震荡上行，周度涨15.82% ⚫ 成交量至627万手（+198万），持仓量至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement between Chuangneng New Energy and Keda Li signifies a long-term procurement partnership exceeding 10 billion yuan in battery precision structural components, enhancing both companies' strategic relationship and supply chain resilience [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Details - The agreement focuses on a comprehensive and in-depth collaboration in the field of battery precision structural components, moving beyond traditional procurement models [1]. - Both companies will establish a joint product research and development laboratory and specialized project teams to optimize product performance, improve manufacturing efficiency, and ensure quality and safety [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook and Supply Chain Strategy - This partnership reflects Chuangneng's confidence in the long-term development prospects of the lithium battery industry and its commitment to building a stable, technology-driven, and value-sharing supply chain ecosystem [2]. - Chuangneng aims to continue collaborating with more supply chain partners to empower industrial innovation and shape a core paradigm for high-quality development in the new energy sector [2].

锂电池产业作为推动能源转型和绿色发展的关键，前景广阔、潜力巨大。把握产业发展机遇，山东欣旺 达深耕锂电池生产制造领域，持续突破超充技术，为山东锻造锂电池产业链核心竞争力注入强劲动能。 今年上半年，山东推动新型工业化提速增效，规模以上工业增加值增长7.7%。全省锂电池产业发展势 头强劲，正负极材料、电解液等产能产量均位居全国前列。2024年产业规模突破1000亿元，增速超过 20%。今天，让我们一起走进山东欣旺达的锂电池生产制造基地，感受超充电池新产品的闪电速度。 记者来到山东欣旺达新能源有限公司，看到一辆搭载了新一代锂电池的电动汽车，在超充模式下，它可 以实现补能12分钟，续航500公里，这可以极大地缓解我们的充电焦虑。那这是如何做到的呢？ "它搭载的电池是一款5C充放电倍率的电池，也是目前市面上比较先进的一款电池。5C意味着充放电的 电流是额定电流的5倍。我们最新一代是6C，充放电流是额定电流的6倍，只需10分钟的时间就可以在 规定区间内充到额定电量。"山东欣旺达新能源有限公司总工程师李文明解释。 被当地雄厚的产业基础所吸引，2021年欣旺达从深圳落户到了枣庄，主攻锂电池产业链的中游环节—— 电池制造。经历 ...

如何挖掘中国周期行业里的好生意？ A 股策略专题｜2025.7.24 中信证券研究部 裘翔 首席 A 股策略师 S1010518080002 924 行情至今，大部分行业在短期内都经历了一轮牛熊，行业轮动速度加快， 注意力不断在新消费、创新药、AI、智能驾驶、基建这些自下而上逻辑的公司 之间反复切换，这篇报告希望解决的问题是在投资者注意力被严重分散的时 代，通过系统的自上而下的选股标准找到中期确定性强且高赔率的周期品公 司。从基本面视角看，供需差驱动利润率提升是周期股的基本逻辑，最优解是 在供给属性好的生意里寻找需求增量。供给很多时候是景气启动的必要不充分 条件，是景气度持续的充分条件。因此我们从供给角度出发，按照政策限制供 给、产能扩张慢、竞争格局好（寡头垄断经营）这三个线索选出了 30 个中国 资产中供给受限的好行业和对应公司。本轮反内卷政策后，预计未来也会有更 多公司陆续开始具备上述的特征。从估值角度看，市销率是最适合周期行业左 侧逆向配置的标准，周期型行业的交易来说，左侧配置的风险回报要显著好于 右侧，而这些供给受限的行业在底部的 PS 区间也更窄，信号明显。因此，我 们建议关注供给属性好的周期性行业 ...

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -6% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,597.94 | 0.12 | | 深证成指 | | 11,217.58 | 0.44 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,135.82 | 0.21 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,932.96 | 0.11 | | 中证 | 500 | 6,323.42 | 0.38 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801.23 | 0.58 | | 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道 7月28日，国新办举行发布会，邀请国家税务总局局长胡静林， 国家税务总局副局长王道树，国家税务总局副局长蔡自力，国家税务总局总经济师兼新闻发言人荣海楼 介绍"十四五"时期税收改革与发展有关情况，并答记者问。 税务总局数据显示，"十四五"时期，我国经济平稳增长，税务部门累计征收税收收入（未扣除出口退 税）将超过85万亿元，比"十三五"期间税收总额还多13万亿元。"十四五"时期，我国出台了一系列减税 降费政策，全国累计新增减税降费预计达到10.5万亿元，办理出口退税预计超过9万亿元，有力促进了 经济社会恢复向好。 胡静林表示，"十四五"时期我国税收收入，在规模上是稳步增长，在结构上是不断优化，呈现出"量增 质优"的特点。近年来，随着产业结构的调整升级和科技创新，我国经济税源发生了一些结构性趋势性 变化。其中最显著的就是，对税收贡献相对较大的房地产等传统行业增速下降，带来相应税收增速放缓 甚至减收；"新三样"等新兴行业发展势头好，但是税收总体规模较小，而且享受的优惠政策比较多，现 阶段对税收增长的拉动作用还不够大。 新质生产力税收贡献持续提升 "十四五"期间，伴随中国经济规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Bijie Phosphate-Coal Chemical Integration Project, led by Youshan New Materials Technology (Guizhou) Co., Ltd., aims to produce 600,000 tons of iron phosphate annually, marking a significant investment in the lithium battery material sector [2][4]. Group 1 - Youshan New Materials Technology (Guizhou) Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Zhejiang Youshan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., under Huayou Holding Group, focusing on the research, production, and sales of lithium iron phosphate for lithium batteries [2][3]. - The project is part of a larger initiative with a total investment of approximately 73 billion yuan, which includes plans for an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, 1.5 million tons of iron phosphate, and various other chemical products [4][5]. - The first phase of the project will establish facilities for the annual production of 500,000 tons of iron phosphate, 300,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, and additional chemical products [5]. Group 2 - In 2024, Youshan Technology is expected to produce over 140,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, with the Bijie project serving as a precursor for lithium iron phosphate production [3]. - The project has commenced with the foundation engineering officially starting on July 18, 2024, indicating a strong commitment to advancing the lithium battery material industry in the region [4].