Canada’s biggest banks have been setting aside hundreds of millions of dollars in case customers can’t pay off their loans, including mortgages.This comes as economic uncertainty and the heightened cost of living weigh on Canadian households and businesses.Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, CIBC, Scotiabank, Bank of Montreal and National Bank reported quarterly earnings this week and all said they have topped up their loan loss provisions.At the same time, the banks have reported multi-billion-dollar profits i ...

Core Viewpoint - Hormel Foods, the maker of Skippy peanut butter, missed quarterly sales estimates, indicating a shift in U.S. consumer behavior towards cheaper alternatives due to economic uncertainty [1] Company Summary - Hormel Foods reported lower-than-expected sales for the quarter, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share amid changing consumer preferences [1] Industry Summary - The food industry is experiencing a trend where consumers are opting for more affordable products, which may impact premium brands like Hormel Foods [1]

Stocks exposed to the US housing market plummeted Wednesday as investors assessed grim outlooks from companies like home improvement retailer Lowe’s Cos Inc., and weighed the lack of a housing policy update during President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech. The S&P composite homebuilder index shed as much as 5.2%, the most since last April’s tariff-related market meltdown. The declines were led by Green Brick Partners Inc., Lennar Corp., Champion Homes Inc., Dream Finders Homes Inc., Installed Bui ...

Home Depot reported lower fourth-quarter profit as economic uncertainty, high interest rates and a stagnant housing market continue to weigh on home improvement activity. ...

Gold (GC=F) April futures opened at $5,175.30 per troy ounce on Thursday, 1% lower than Wednesday’s closing price of $5,226.20. In early trading, the gold price moved higher than $5,200 before pulling back. The factors behind gold’s latest rally — the Supreme Court’s strike down of President Trump’s tariffs and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran — remain in play. A third round of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials began on Thursday, with the goal of negotiating the future of Iran’s nuc ...

Core Insights - The final reading for the 2025 holiday shopping season indicated flat retail sales at $735.0 billion, missing the expected 0.5% increase, with a year-over-year growth of 2.4% against a 2.7% rise in the Consumer Price Index, suggesting weak real spending momentum [1][10] Retail Performance Analysis - Large U.S. retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Alibaba are under pressure due to disappointing year-end sales, impacting profit margins and earnings, which raises concerns for retail ETFs that include these companies [2] - The stagnation in December retail sales was attributed to several economic factors, including persistent inflation, economic uncertainty, early promotions that pulled sales forward, and a K-shaped consumer behavior where higher-income households remained stable while lower-income households reduced spending [4][5][6][7] Future Outlook - The retail sector's recovery depends on moderating inflation and a rebounding U.S. economy, with expectations for gradual improvement in real consumer spending if demand stabilizes and retailers manage costs effectively [8][9] - Analysts project U.S. retail sales to grow by 3.5% year-over-year in 2026, with inflation anticipated to remain between 2.6% and 3.0% [11] Retail ETFs Spotlight - **State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT)**: AUM of $681.4 million, exposure to 73 companies, gained 10.2% over the past year, charges 35 bps in fees [12][13] - **VanEck Retail ETF (RTH)**: AUM of $265.2 million, exposure to 26 companies, rallied 9.5% over the past year, charges 35 bps in fees [14] - **ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN)**: Net asset value of $52.84 million, exposure to 20 online retail stocks, gained 3% over the past year, charges 58 bps in fees [15] - **Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)**: AUM of $124.5 million, exposure to 81 companies in online retail, charges 65 bps in fees [16]

Core Insights - U.S. coal carloads increased by 10,500 carloads, or 4.7%, in January 2026 compared to January 2025, marking the largest monthly percentage gain since May 2025, with year-over-year volumes rising in 8 of the last 11 months [1] - The AAR Freight Rail Index rose by 3.1% in January 2026 over December 2025, driven by an increase in carload traffic [2] - Total U.S. carloads rose by 4.4% in January 2026 compared to January 2025, with 12 of the 20 major AAR-tracked carload categories showing gains, particularly in grain, coal, and industrial-related products [3] Rail Operations and Economic Factors - A severe winter storm disrupted rail operations in the last week of January, yet U.S. rail volumes remained resilient [4] - The labor market is cooling but continues to generate income growth, with inflation easing enough to support real purchasing power, contributing to consumer spending [5] - Consumer confidence has fallen to a near 12-year low, but consumer spending has remained stable, indicating households are overcoming sentiment concerns [7] Freight Demand and Manufacturing Outlook - Carloads excluding coal rose by 4.3% in January 2026, marking the 21st year-over-year gain in the past 24 months, although gains have been modest due to sluggish industrial activity [9] - U.S. grain carloads averaged 24,355 per week in January 2026, up 17.0% over January 2025, driven by higher grain exports [10][11] - Chemical carloads increased by 2.4% in January 2026, signaling a solid start for the sector, which is often an early indicator of manufacturing activity [12] Steel and Metal Products - U.S. carloads of primary metal products fell by 2.5% in January, while iron and steel scrap surged by 17.8%, reflecting shifts in steelmaking practices [14][15] - The divergence between growing scrap carloads and declining metallic ore carloads indicates a transition towards electric-arc furnaces in domestic steel production [15] Railcar Storage and Economic Indicators - As of February 1, 356,000 railcars, or 21.8% of the North American fleet, were in storage, indicating a slow increase since mid-2025 [17] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%–3.75%, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid solid economic growth and stabilizing labor market conditions [18] Manufacturing and Services Sector - The Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6% in January, indicating potential growth, although caution is advised as January often reflects post-holiday restocking [19][20] - The ISM's Services PMI matched its highest level in a year at 53.8%, supporting rail demand indirectly by sustaining incomes and consumption [23] Currency and Trade Implications - The U.S. dollar has weakened against major currencies, which could provide a modest tailwind for U.S. exports, including grain and coal, while making imports more expensive [24][25] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market shows mixed signals, with a stable quits rate and job openings at a low, suggesting limited near-term acceleration in freight demand [26][27] Future Outlook - The goods economy appears influenced by sector-specific forces rather than a single macroeconomic narrative, with rail volumes likely responding unevenly to these mixed demand signals [28]

Core Insights - Gold IRAs are marketed as a means to protect retirement savings from inflation, market volatility, and economic uncertainty [1] - The effectiveness of a gold IRA in retirement depends on factors such as timing, portfolio allocation, fees, storage costs, and handling of required minimum distributions (RMDs) [2] - Gold IRAs allow investors to hold IRS-approved physical gold and other precious metals, providing direct exposure to gold prices but with added administrative complexity and higher fees [3] Investment Considerations - Investors view gold IRAs as a diversification tool and a hedge against inflation or economic uncertainty, although these benefits are not guaranteed and gold does not generate income [4] - Gold is considered 'patient' money, suitable for long-term holding until market or personal circumstances necessitate liquidation or distribution [5] - Gold IRAs follow standard tax rules, offering tax-deferred growth or tax-free withdrawals depending on the account type, with RMDs applicable to traditional accounts [6]

Core Insights - Grab Holdings forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue below Wall Street expectations, indicating a slowdown in its core ride-hailing and delivery businesses as consumers face economic uncertainty [1] - The company's shares fell approximately 7% in extended trading following the revenue forecast [1] - Grab plans to acquire U.S. digital financial services company Stash Financial for $425 million to enhance its personal finance segment [1] Financial Performance - Grab expects annual revenue between $4.04 billion and $4.10 billion, lower than the estimated $4.13 billion [1] - The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $906 million, missing estimates of $940.7 million [1] - Grab anticipates a compounded annual revenue growth of 20% from 2025 to 2028 [1] Market Conditions - Sticky inflation in major Southeast Asian markets and the impact of U.S. tariff policies have led consumers to be more selective with their spending [1] - Consumers are curbing discretionary budgets and seeking cost-saving options for regular purchases [1] - Grab has introduced its Saver platform to attract cost-conscious customers through discounts and bundled offers to reduce delivery fees [1]

Each year, Davos serves as a serene setting to explore the world's most urgent issues, and in 2026, flashpoints were everywhere. The world must not return to the law of the jungle, where the strong bully, the weak without collective governance cooperation, gives way to relentless competition. The architecture, the very architecture of collective problem solving or under threat.A world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile, and less sustainable. Of course, nostalgia is part of our human story. But nosta ...