A new piece in the New York Times looks at examples of when political leaders meddle in government data, proving it rarely ends well. The article reads in part, quote, "There is the case of Greece, where the government faked deficit numbers for years, contributing to a debilitating debt crisis that required multiple rounds of bailouts. The country then criminally prosecuted the head of the statistical agency when he insisted on reporting the true figures, further eroding the country's international standing ...

Dining Trends - Despite economic uncertainty, people continue to prioritize dining out across all price points [1] - The industry observes year-over-year growth even in the $50 per person and up segment [2] - Restaurants are largely full and busy, indicating sustained consumer demand [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are willing to allocate discretionary income to restaurant experiences [1] - People want to go out to restaurants, have a good time, and enjoy good food [2]

[Music] On June 18th, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its most recent FOMC meeting where they left the Fed funds rate unchanged for the fourth straight time and gave the largely expected comments about continuing to monitor inflation and labor market data amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The chairman mentioned particular uncertainty around the inflationary effects of tariff policy. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.we're beginning to see ...

Bankim Chadha, Deutsche Bank chief global strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Fed Chair Powell's testimony and the bond market. ...

Coop Pank’s financial results in May 2025: In May, number of the bank's clients increased by 1,500 and number of active clients decreased by 800. By the end of the month number of clients reached 216,00 and number of active clients reached 102,400. Over the year, customer base has grown by 11%. Volume of the bank's customer deposits decreased by 47 million euros in May. The reduction in deposit volume was a deliberate step, as an additional 250 million euros was raised in March through the issuance of cover ...

Core Viewpoint - Target is facing significant challenges despite its long history of dividend increases and a high yield of 4.8%, as it has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the last five years [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Retailers, including Target, are experiencing pressure due to consumer spending tightening amid inflation and economic uncertainty, with consumer sentiment at its lowest since 2022 [3] - Competitors like Walmart and Costco have managed to grow revenue and maintain margins despite macroeconomic challenges, while Target has seen a decline in foot traffic [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Target has reduced its guidance in its latest earnings announcement, indicating a third consecutive fiscal year of adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) declines, leading to skepticism among investors [6] - Despite declining sales and earnings, Target remains a profitable business with EPS and free cash flow (FCF) per share significantly higher than its dividend per share, having raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years [8] Group 3: Dividend Analysis - Target's current situation is unique as its dividend remains affordable despite a stock price at six-year lows, with a high FCF yield of 8.2% compared to its 4.8% dividend yield [10][11] - A $1,000 investment in Target would yield approximately $48 in annual dividend income, significantly more than the expected $13 from an S&P 500 index fund [13] Group 4: Strategic Outlook - Management is focusing on turning the business around by improving efficiency and revamping the product lineup, while also needing to manage costs and align inventory with consumer behavior [7] - Target's strengths, such as the Target Circle loyalty program and exclusive partnerships, could help in its turnaround strategy, despite challenges in competing on price with larger retailers [12]

Group 1 - Shake Shack is entering the loyalty program space to boost business amid economic uncertainty, offering $1 soft drinks for app or website orders [1] - Starting in June, customers who order a burger or BBQ sandwich at least twice within a specific period will be eligible for discounts [2] - The company plans to launch a more extensive loyalty platform later this year, following the trend set by competitors [3] Group 2 - Loyalty programs are increasingly popular in the fast-food industry as a strategy to encourage repeat business, especially during inflationary periods [5] - The U.S. economy is under pressure, with consumer confidence declining and major chains warning of a slowdown in dining out due to inflation [6] - Nearly 80% of Americans now view fast food as a luxury due to high prices [8] Group 3 - Shake Shack aims to expand its footprint, raising its target for company-operated restaurants in the U.S. to at least 1,500, representing a nearly 356% increase from current operations [9] - The company plans to open about 45 company-operated locations and 35-40 licensed locations by 2025 [10]

Economic Overview - U.S. stocks have rebounded over the past month after a turbulent start to 2025, driven by concerns over tariffs and high inflation [1] - The recent market rebound has been volatile, influenced by ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans [2] Tariff Impact - President Trump imposed significant tariffs in April, including a 145% duty on Chinese imports, which prompted China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods [3] - A recent trade truce between the U.S. and China has temporarily suspended tariffs for 90 days, but uncertainty remains regarding future trade agreements and their economic implications [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve - Inflation has shown signs of easing, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by only 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% decline in March [5] - The CPI increased by 2.3% year-over-year in April, marking the smallest annual gain since February 2021, indicating a gradual approach towards the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [6] Dividend-Paying Stocks - In light of economic uncertainty, investing in dividend-paying stocks is recommended as they tend to be more stable and reliable during market fluctuations [7] Company Highlights The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) - TD announced a dividend of $0.75 per share, with a dividend yield of 4.31% and a payout ratio of 53% of earnings [9] - The bank has increased its dividend 12 times over the past five years [9] Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) - Marriott declared a dividend of $0.67 per share, with a dividend yield of 1.04% and a payout ratio of 26% of earnings [12] - The company has increased its dividend five times in the last five years [12] Lennox International Inc. (LII) - Lennox announced a dividend of $1.30 per share, with a dividend yield of 0.81% and a payout ratio of 20% of earnings [14] - The company has increased its dividend five times over the past five years [14] Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) - Ralph Lauren declared a dividend of $0.91 per share, with a dividend yield of 1.20% and a payout ratio of 27% of earnings [16] - The company has increased its dividend three times in the last five years [16]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart has demonstrated strong performance in the retail sector, with significant growth in e-commerce and a focus on value, making it an attractive option for investors despite a slowdown in overall growth [1][10][15]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - Walmart's stock increased by 71.9% last year, outperforming the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average [1]. - Year-to-date, Walmart has achieved a 6.7% gain, contrasting with a 2.1% decline in the S&P 500 [1]. - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Walmart's global e-commerce sales grew by 22%, while total constant currency revenue grew by 4% [4]. Group 2: E-commerce and Business Strategy - Walmart's comparable sales in the U.S. grew by 4.5%, with 350 basis points attributed to e-commerce [5]. - The company has successfully improved e-commerce profitability for the first time in Q1, indicating a positive shift in its business model [9]. - Walmart's delivery options have expanded significantly, with U.S. deliveries in less than three hours growing by 91% year-over-year [9]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Walmart's value-focused strategy allows it to leverage its extensive store network and supply chain to compete effectively with Amazon on pricing [8]. - The company is positioned well to attract cost-conscious consumers amid inflation and economic uncertainty [4][6]. - Walmart's emphasis on efficiency and cost management is crucial for maintaining competitiveness against digitally native retailers like Amazon [7]. Group 4: Growth Outlook and Valuation - Walmart's forecast for fiscal 2026 indicates a 4% increase in net sales and a less than 2% increase in adjusted earnings per share, reflecting a slowdown in growth [12]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 41.2, suggesting that the stock is priced for high growth despite slower overall business growth [13][16]. - The low dividend yield of 1% may deter new investors, as the stock price has risen faster than the dividend [15].

Group 1: Core Issues Facing Lear Corporation - Lear Corporation is experiencing challenges due to economic uncertainty and labor scarcity in wire harness production in the United States [1][2] - Global production forecasts for 2025 have worsened, now expecting a 4% decline on a Lear-weighted basis compared to a previous guidance of 2% [2] - The company faces difficulties relocating wire harness production to the U.S. due to labor scarcity and the labor-intensive nature of the work, compounded by a 25% tariff on wire harnesses [3] Group 2: Customer Concentration and Financial Outlook - Lear has a concentrated customer base, with six major customers accounting for over 50% of total sales in 2024, making the company vulnerable to losing any of these clients [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year decline of 5.04%, while earnings per share are expected to decline by 7.21% [5] Group 3: Comparison with Other Stocks - Other better-ranked stocks in the automotive sector include Hesai Group, Ferrari N.V., and Standard Motor Products, with significant expected growth in earnings for 2025 [6][7]