Core Viewpoint - The future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026 is uncertain, with speculation surrounding whether he will remain on the board as a governor or leave the Fed entirely [1][5][12]. Group 1: Powell's Decision and Its Implications - Powell's potential departure could shift the balance of power on the Fed's Board of Governors, currently with three Trump appointees out of seven, potentially allowing the president to exert more influence over monetary policy [6][10]. - The Federal Reserve Act may allow the board's majority to dismiss individual bank presidents opposing rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed if Powell were to leave [7][10]. - Powell's decision is complicated by the ongoing legal case involving Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could affect the board's composition and Trump's ability to appoint new members [8][9]. Group 2: Political Context and Speculation - The current political climate is unprecedented, with President Trump openly seeking control over Fed policy, contrasting with past chairs who transitioned quietly to other roles [3][5]. - Powell's reluctance to disclose his future plans may serve as a strategic move to maintain leverage over the administration, signaling his willingness to stay or leave based on the president's nominee choices [11][13]. - Observers believe that Powell is likely to leave when his chairmanship ends, as staying could invite greater political scrutiny and undermine the Fed's independence [12].

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan says America's fixation on Federal Reserve rate moves has overshadowed the private sector's role in powering the economy, even as mounting political pressure raises fears over the central bank's independence. Moynihan Says Fed Focus Distracts From Private-Sector Strength On Sunday, in an interview on CBS News' Face the Nation, Moynihan argued the U.S. economy is "much bigger" than the Federal Reserve and urged Americans not to treat small rate changes as ...

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan says America's fixation on Federal Reserve rate moves has overshadowed the private sector's role in powering the economy, even as mounting political pressure raises fears over the central bank's independence.Moynihan Says Fed Focus Distracts From Private-Sector StrengthOn Sunday, in an interview on CBS News' Face the Nation, Moynihan argued the U.S. economy is "much bigger" than the Federal Reserve and urged Americans not to treat small rate changes as dec ...

Joining me to wrap up the week, Ron Insana, CEO of Insana Information Partners. He joins me at the desk. Ron, great to have you. >> It's great to see you.Thanks for having me, Caroline. >> All right, so what do we need to take away from this week. What do investors actually need to care about right now.>> Well, I think they still have to care about the data fog that we're going through. I mean, we've got CPI or consumer price information that told us inflation was a little better than we thought, but the da ...

Hey, do you have a minute. Great. I moved the desense graph up.The Fed's independence from the White House isn't set in law. It's not written in stone. It's a loose collection of norms that developed over several decades that everybody sort of agreed to abide by.But Donald Trump hasn't. He's badgered and attacked the Fed chair Jay Powell over his reluctance to lower interest rates. >> We have a a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed.>> He's gone after the Fed for spending too much money on an expensive buildi ...

All right. So, Kevin, we know that the president seemed to be uncomfortable with the way that he had to deal with J. Pal and J.Pal being listen, I'm very separate. I'm not I have to take any answers. I think the president's kind of a head coach and if you got that job, you're a player. Now, if the head coach says, listen, you're going to have to go this way and this way is to take rates down 200 basis points right now.Are you going to tell him, "Uh, no, coach, I'm not going to do that." You know, the bottom ...

Accessible version FX and Rates Sentiment Survey Searching for signal Key takeaways Disparate DM views Limited consensus stands out in this month's survey across DM while EM optimism continues to climb. Equal number of investors have conviction being long vs short rates and respondents are split across short/ long risk, short USD, vs long commodities (Exhibit 1). While long risk is still viewed as a crowded trade, more are becoming concerned about short USD (Exhibit 6). Aggregated global duration exposure a ...

Uh, all right, Ed. Top of your note today to our producers, we have several concerns about 2026, which is interesting because I didn't hear from a single person who was on this program yet today or for that matter anybody who was on halftime earlier who has several concerns about 2026. What gives.>> So, first of all, I want to emphasize that these are concerns that may or may not come to fruition, but we got to look ahead and see what might happen. Top of the list is what what could go on with the Fed. You ...

Fed Policy & Economic Outlook - Potential Fed chair candidate's willingness to discuss Fed plans with the President raises concerns about Fed independence [2][3] - An independent Fed chair is crucial, even if it goes against political interests [4] - Supreme Court emphasizes the need for Fed independence [5] Tariffs & Trade - Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could significantly impact the economy, potentially requiring paybacks or halting tariffs [5][6] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is a major concern for businesses [7][21] - Tariffs can protect domestic industries, such as the automobile industry, from foreign competition [22][23][24] AI & Economic Growth - The current administration is increasingly focused on being known as the "AI president" [8] - AI investment is significantly boosting the US economy, potentially masking flat GDP growth if removed [14][15] - AI-related investments are benefiting various sectors, including construction, energy, and real estate [15] - A significant portion of stock market returns, particularly in the NASDAQ, is driven by a few AI-related companies [17] - The AI boom and the current administration's policies are closely linked, potentially creating a "bubble" [18] Political Implications of AI - There is a lack of coherent messaging from the White House regarding AI, leading to public concerns about data centers, electricity bills, job displacement, and children's exposure [11][12] - Politicians are starting to recognize the potential downsides and political risks associated with AI [13]

Let's bring in Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Xandandy who I assume Mark you've you've been listening in. Do you do you have a do you do you have an opinion on on one or the other and qu this question about credibility and how close they are to the president. >> I think they're both reasonably good choices, Sarah. I mean I I know Kevin I guess they're both Kevin.I know them pretty well. They're good economists. They are very experienced.Uh both uh lived and worked through the financial crisis. So th ...