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Core Insights - Bitcoin derivatives have gained a regulated entry point in the U.S. with the launch of Tezos futures by Bitnomial, enhancing institutional-grade trading infrastructure for the project [1][5] - XTZ is currently trading around $1.80, significantly below its peak of $9.12, indicating a broader trend of crypto trading moving towards regulated environments [2][7] - The introduction of regulated futures is expected to support long-term market participation rather than immediate price rallies [6][7] Group 1: Tezos Futures and Market Impact - Tezos futures allow traders to agree on a price for future settlement, functioning similarly to locking in prices for commodities [3] - Regulated products are subject to oversight and clearing requirements, reducing counterparty risk and increasing transparency, which may attract institutional investors [4] - Bitnomial's history of launching regulated crypto products suggests a growing acceptance of such offerings by regulators [5] Group 2: Tezos Network and Institutional Appeal - Tezos, launched in 2018, features a self-upgrading architecture that appeals to institutional participants due to its predictable governance and reduced disruptive upgrades [6] - The introduction of regulated futures is anticipated to enhance price discovery over longer time horizons, allowing professional traders to express views through structured contracts [6]

Hong Kong’s government plans to launch a state-owned clearing system and futures contracts for gold as part of its efforts to advance the city’s ambition to become a hub for the precious metal https://t.co/XaanugVwgf ...

Prediction Market Overview - The business of making markets and futures contracts tied to events is rapidly growing [1] - Prediction markets aim to allow individuals to trade on events they care about [2] - Prediction markets provide a consensus opinion by requiring participants to back their views with money [5] - Prediction markets help people become more informed about potential outcomes in politics and foreign policy [7] Key Players - Kalshi, a regulated events contract exchange, is raising funds at a $5 billion valuation [2] - Intercontinental Exchange is seeking to acquire Kalshi's rival, Polymarket, for nearly $10 billion [2] - Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets [4] Comparison with Polling - Prediction markets do not replace polls, similar to how the stock market reflects but doesn't replace earnings forecasts [10] - Prediction markets are heavily dependent on polling data [23] - Prediction markets serve as another analyst, crowdsourcing and combining data in a way individual analysts cannot [24] Challenges and Changes in Polling - Traditional polling faces challenges in obtaining representative samples due to technology changes [15] - Defining likely voters remains a struggle for pollsters [17] - Artificial intelligence is reshaping polling by addressing language differences and enabling respondents to answer in their own words [20][21]

Crypto Leverage Overview - 加密货币市场中的杠杆使用会放大价格波动，对市场产生重大影响 [1] - 投资者主要通过两种方式获得杠杆：抵押贷款和通过期货或永续合约进行杠杆交易 [1] - 强制平仓会加剧市场崩盘，而杠杆空头挤压会导致价格意外上涨 [1] Collateralized Lending - 2021 年第四季度，加密货币抵押贷款市场达到近 650 亿美元的峰值 [1] - 截至 2025 年第一季度，中心化金融 (CFI) 平台的未偿借款约为 135 亿美元，环比增长约 9% [1] - Tether 在 CFI 借贷市场中占据主导地位，持有 65% 的份额，透明度不足是 CFI 借贷的一个主要问题 [1] - 截至 2025 年第一季度末，去中心化金融 (DeFi) 借贷的未偿借款约为 177 亿美元，环比下降超过 21% [1] - Pendle 代币被引入到 Aave 中，由于其高贷款价值比率，显著提升了 DeFi 借贷活动 [1] Borrowing Trends - 稳定币借款利率大幅下降，从 1 月份的约 12% 降至 5 月下旬的约 5%，降幅达 57% [2] - 链上比特币借款保持相对较低和稳定，而链下比特币借款利率仍然较高 [2] - 以太坊借款利率始终高于质押以太坊 (ST ETH) 的利率，机构投资者通常在链下借入 ETH 以做空以太坊或将其用作现金贷款的抵押品 [2] Debt Issuance by Crypto Treasury Companies - 截至 2025 年 5 月下旬，比特币国库公司总共持有高达 1227 亿美元的未偿债务，其中 MicroStrategy 占近 65% [2] - 这些公司面临着双重风险：如果比特币价格在债务到期时显著降低，可能会被迫出售大量 BTC；如果股票价格上涨，投资者可以将债务转换为公司股份，这可能会稀释现有股东的权益 [2] Crypto Futures Market - 2025 年初，加密货币期货市场交易活动和投资者参与度显著下降，但 4 月初市场信心开始恢复，5 月下旬未平仓合约大幅反弹，从约 680 亿美元增至 1160 亿美元 [3] - 机构投资者越来越倾向于在芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 等受监管的交易所进行交易，截至 5 月，CME 约占加密货币期货市场总额的 25% [3] - 永续期货 (Perp) 在零售交易者中越来越受欢迎，截至 5 月下旬，Perp 约占期货未平仓合约总额的 72%，达到约 840 亿美元 [3] - Hyperliquid 作为一个去中心化交易所，由于其无需 KYC 的特点，正在蚕食币安等传统中心化交易所的市场份额 [3] Market Implications and Risks - 随着牛市的进行，加密货币借贷市场正在强劲复苏，并可能显著增长 [3] - 随着越来越多的个人交易者和杠杆公司实体进行杠杆交易和借贷，下一次熊市可能会特别残酷 [3] - 如果加密货币国库公司没有足够的现金流或股价下跌，可能会被迫在最糟糕的时刻清算其加密货币持有量，从而引发广泛的强制抛售 [3]