Our polling shows that the share of respondents favouring China jumped by 11 percentage points to an average of 33%. Meanwhile, support for America slipped below a global majority to 46% https://t.co/Mxsk1qodjJ ...

Much could change before America’s midterm elections next year, but our current polling shows that Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by three points https://t.co/XxHZ33hf2i ...

Economic Outlook & Political Disconnect - The report highlights a disconnect between perceived economic reality and political narratives, where leaders may present an overly optimistic view that doesn't align with the struggles of working Americans [3][4][5][6][7][8] - The analysis suggests that voters are more influenced by their personal economic experiences (e g, affording groceries, rent) than by broad economic narratives or stock market performance [5][6][7][8] - The report mentions a CNN poll indicating that over 70% of people in the country believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, primarily due to economic concerns [8] Policy & Impact - The document touches upon the impact of policies like tariffs, noting that despite claims of their benefits, many individuals feel they negatively affect their ability to afford essential goods [8] - The report references a narrative of factories, AI, and auto plants returning to the US, suggesting a positive shift in the economy [1] Political Strategy & Perception - The analysis points out the use of narratives in politics, where repeating a message can influence public perception, but this strategy may fail when it contradicts people's lived experiences [6][7] - The report suggests that voters react negatively to leaders who portray an overly positive economic picture while ignoring the financial difficulties faced by many [5]

Steve Cornaki, what is your biggest takeaway from election night as we look ahead to the midterms and beyond. >> So, we had a finding in our poll on Sunday, our NBC News poll, that I think a lot of people I know there was a lot of skepticism about, and that is we ask about the generic ballot. Which party do you want to see control Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.We had the Democrats leading by eight points on that. Um, there are some other polls that have the Democrats up, but generally not by as muc ...

Strikingly, over a third of Republicans support deporting citizens who disagree with Donald Trump, according to new polling from The Economist and YouGov https://t.co/TTn22MHlIK ...

Prediction Market Overview - The business of making markets and futures contracts tied to events is rapidly growing [1] - Prediction markets aim to allow individuals to trade on events they care about [2] - Prediction markets provide a consensus opinion by requiring participants to back their views with money [5] - Prediction markets help people become more informed about potential outcomes in politics and foreign policy [7] Key Players - Kalshi, a regulated events contract exchange, is raising funds at a $5 billion valuation [2] - Intercontinental Exchange is seeking to acquire Kalshi's rival, Polymarket, for nearly $10 billion [2] - Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets [4] Comparison with Polling - Prediction markets do not replace polls, similar to how the stock market reflects but doesn't replace earnings forecasts [10] - Prediction markets are heavily dependent on polling data [23] - Prediction markets serve as another analyst, crowdsourcing and combining data in a way individual analysts cannot [24] Challenges and Changes in Polling - Traditional polling faces challenges in obtaining representative samples due to technology changes [15] - Defining likely voters remains a struggle for pollsters [17] - Artificial intelligence is reshaping polling by addressing language differences and enabling respondents to answer in their own words [20][21]

Donald Trump has ordered investigations into former Biden aides, bullied law firms and cut federal funding to universities. Our polling with YouGov shows how Americans feel about all of it https://t.co/icKmA3shFE ...

Geopolitical Landscape - Public opinion in America indicates declining support for Israel [1] - The Economist's polling data reveals a bipartisan shift in American sentiment regarding the US-Israel relationship [1] - Both Democrats and Republicans are expressing doubts about the nature of the relationship [1] Potential Drivers of Change - The report suggests exploring the underlying reasons for this shift in American sentiment [1]

Geopolitical Relations - Long-run shifts in public opinion pose a greater threat than political disagreements [1] - Polling data in America reveals startling trends [1]

Geopolitical Relations - Long-run shifts in public opinion pose a greater threat than political disagreements between Israeli and American governments [1] - Polling data in America reveals startling trends regarding the relationship between the two countries [1]