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X @Nick Szabo
Nick Szabo· 2025-12-21 04:22
RT Polling USA (@USA_Polling)Support For US Financial Support For Israel:Oppose: 62%Support: 20%Unsure: 18%AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025 ...
X @The Wall Street Journal
From @WSJFreeEx: Gallup polling indicates that support for large families is highest among people in strong faith communities and, in a promising twist, among young people, writes @tonywoodliefhttps://t.co/viq7wLkm3T ...
'This is staggering': Joe on stunning new midterm poll giving Dems wide advantage
MSNBC· 2025-11-20 15:28
I saw something yesterday, Willie. Um, a generic ballot test. And we've been talking about how badly things have been going for Republicans over the past two, three, four weeks.>> I will say in all my years in politics, and of course >> that goes back what, 75 years after we came back from the war, >> just a couple of kids starting our own polling outfit. No. Um, trying to get on with Gallup.No, I've in all the years I've been in politics, I think Gallup was around in 1947. M >> um I've never seen this big ...
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-11-17 23:40
Our polling shows that the share of respondents favouring China jumped by 11 percentage points to an average of 33%. Meanwhile, support for America slipped below a global majority to 46% https://t.co/Mxsk1qodjJ ...
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-11-13 14:20
Much could change before America’s midterm elections next year, but our current polling shows that Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by three points https://t.co/XxHZ33hf2i ...
Joe: 'You can't tell people the economy's booming when they can't afford groceries'
MSNBC· 2025-11-06 18:16
Economic Outlook & Political Disconnect - The report highlights a disconnect between perceived economic reality and political narratives, where leaders may present an overly optimistic view that doesn't align with the struggles of working Americans [3][4][5][6][7][8] - The analysis suggests that voters are more influenced by their personal economic experiences (e g, affording groceries, rent) than by broad economic narratives or stock market performance [5][6][7][8] - The report mentions a CNN poll indicating that over 70% of people in the country believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, primarily due to economic concerns [8] Policy & Impact - The document touches upon the impact of policies like tariffs, noting that despite claims of their benefits, many individuals feel they negatively affect their ability to afford essential goods [8] - The report references a narrative of factories, AI, and auto plants returning to the US, suggesting a positive shift in the economy [1] Political Strategy & Perception - The analysis points out the use of narratives in politics, where repeating a message can influence public perception, but this strategy may fail when it contradicts people's lived experiences [6][7] - The report suggests that voters react negatively to leaders who portray an overly positive economic picture while ignoring the financial difficulties faced by many [5]
Steve Kornacki shares his biggest takeaway from election night
NBC News· 2025-11-05 07:38
Election Analysis & Midterm Outlook - NBC News poll shows Democrats leading by eight points in the generic ballot for the 2026 midterm elections [2] - The generic ballot was tight in the fall of this year, which initially gave Republicans hope for the 2026 midterms [2] - Trump's low marks on the economy and blame for the government shutdown contributed to the Democrats' advantage [3] - Results in Virginia and New Jersey are consistent with the Democrats' eight-point lead in the generic ballot [3] Key Factors & Potential Implications - Trump's numbers have fallen, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment [3] - The Democratic lead in the generic ballot suggests a potentially accurate finding [5] - The results in politically competitive parts of Virginia and New Jersey could be indicative of trends in swing districts next year [4]
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-10-12 16:20
Strikingly, over a third of Republicans support deporting citizens who disagree with Donald Trump, according to new polling from The Economist and YouGov https://t.co/TTn22MHlIK ...
Can Prediction Markets Replace Polls in Politics?
Bloomberg Television· 2025-10-11 14:00
Prediction Market Overview - The business of making markets and futures contracts tied to events is rapidly growing [1] - Prediction markets aim to allow individuals to trade on events they care about [2] - Prediction markets provide a consensus opinion by requiring participants to back their views with money [5] - Prediction markets help people become more informed about potential outcomes in politics and foreign policy [7] Key Players - Kalshi, a regulated events contract exchange, is raising funds at a $5 billion valuation [2] - Intercontinental Exchange is seeking to acquire Kalshi's rival, Polymarket, for nearly $10 billion [2] - Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets [4] Comparison with Polling - Prediction markets do not replace polls, similar to how the stock market reflects but doesn't replace earnings forecasts [10] - Prediction markets are heavily dependent on polling data [23] - Prediction markets serve as another analyst, crowdsourcing and combining data in a way individual analysts cannot [24] Challenges and Changes in Polling - Traditional polling faces challenges in obtaining representative samples due to technology changes [15] - Defining likely voters remains a struggle for pollsters [17] - Artificial intelligence is reshaping polling by addressing language differences and enabling respondents to answer in their own words [20][21]
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-10-08 23:40
Donald Trump has ordered investigations into former Biden aides, bullied law firms and cut federal funding to universities. Our polling with YouGov shows how Americans feel about all of it https://t.co/icKmA3shFE ...