M Idea Asset Returns: Gold Rush Gold was the best-performing asset class in 2025 and has significantly outperformed equities over five years. Indian equities seem better placed going into 2026, especially relative to Emerging markets. Another look at Xanadu: In early 2020, we pointed out that rather than choosing between gold and equities, an equal-weighted portfolio of gold and equities appeared to offer better prospects. Over the last five years, such an equal-weighted portfolio has compounded at 17% vs. ...

Core Insights - Baupost Group's latest 13F filing reveals a highly selective and concentrated portfolio, focusing on durable businesses with long-term cash generation potential [1][2] Investment Moves - **Restaurant Brands International (QSR)**: Increased by 4,203,300 shares to 8,252,862 shares, representing a $529.3 million position (11.05% of the portfolio). This is now Baupost's largest equity holding, indicating a belief in significant mispricing relative to its stable franchise model and cash flows [3][4] - **Elevance Health (ELV)**: Increased by 703,000 shares to 1,319,000 shares, totaling a $426.2 million position (8.90%). The increase suggests confidence in the company's predictable cash flows and resilience in a politically noisy sector [5][6] - **Union Pacific (UNP)**: Newly established position with 1,496,204 shares, valued at $353.7 million (7.38%). The railroad's high barriers to entry and pricing power align with Baupost's focus on downside protection [7][8] - **Alphabet (GOOG)**: Reduced by 775,850 shares to 1,858,138 shares, now a $452.6 million position (9.45%). The reduction reflects portfolio risk management rather than a loss of conviction [9] - **CRH plc (CRH)**: Trimmed by 442,000 shares to 3,383,395 shares, valued at $405.7 million (8.47%). The trim indicates a disciplined approach to valuation, despite the long-term thesis remaining intact [10] - **Full Exits**: Baupost exited several positions entirely, including Viasat, Liberty Broadband, ICON plc, and Amcor, signaling a shift in risk-reward balance [11][12] Strategic Focus - The quarter was characterized by conviction-driven capital redeployment into high-confidence ideas, particularly in sectors like restaurants, railroads, healthcare, and materials [13][14] - Trimming positions like GOOG and CRH reflects a focus on risk management and valuation discipline rather than a bearish outlook [15] - The top 10 positions account for over 75% of disclosed assets, emphasizing Baupost's belief in concentration as a strategy against ignorance [16] - The portfolio prioritizes downside protection, with upside driven by business durability rather than macroeconomic bets [17]

It has been a year of significant stock dispersion, with notable leadership in Refining and Specialty Contractors and weakness in Oil E&P, reflecting commodity/thematic bifurcation. In this brief report, we try to make sense of the moves and also highlight some of the early pushback we have received on our ten stocks ideas for 2026, which we discussed here. Exhibit 1: This year, VLO had the top ranking in the XLE, while OKE was the relative laggard along with several E&Ps Relative components of the XLE rank ...

Ingots of platinum rest in front of several stock charts, displaying the strong potential of the metal's price to appreciate. Key Points Platinum remains historically undervalued relative to gold and offers a compelling value proposition for investors seeking a catch-up trade in precious metals. A persistent structural supply deficit, combined with expanding demand from the green hydrogen economy, is putting upward pressure on platinum prices. The abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF provides investors w ...

Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) could hike its dividend in late January or early February. But OXY stock is still well off its highs. Based on its average dividend yield, OXY could be worth over 25% more at $50 per share. OXY is trading at $39.77 today. That's down from $48.10 on Sept. 29, but up from a recent trough of $38.92 on Dec. 16. Over the last month, it's been treading water. More News from Barchart OXY stock - last 6 months - Barchart - Dec. 23, 2025 Upcoming Dividend Hike I discussed Occiden ...

I am an investor, entrepreneur and consultant with over 35 years of investment experience. I employ a macro-style, passive, index-based all-weather investment approach. I emphasize capital preservation, with a value orientation and contrarian bent. I manage and advise on family portfolios collectively valued in the eight-figure range. Background includes a B.S. Industrial Engineering and MBA in investments from University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, plus 11,000+ hours of investment management and researc ...

price of Westpac Banking Corp (Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: WBC ) is around $37 per share. But what are WBC shares really worth? How to get to an target valuation is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to Westpac Banking Corp, of course.Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) are also very ...

Core Insights - Vanguard is recognized as a leading ETF provider due to its mutual ownership model, which allows fund shareholders to own the funds and Vanguard itself [2] - The company operates at cost, resulting in a significantly lower average expense ratio of 0.07%, compared to the industry average of over 0.40%, leading to substantial long-term savings for investors [3] - Vanguard manages over $8 trillion in assets, offering a wide range of passively managed index funds that provide comprehensive market exposure [4] Fund Summaries - **Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI)** targets high-yielding stocks in developed and emerging markets outside the U.S., with a focus on financials, consumer staples, and energy. It has an expense ratio of 0.17% and a 30-day SEC yield of approximately 4%, providing geographic diversification with over 1,500 holdings [5][7] - **Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)** offers exposure to major players in the AI sector, with top holdings including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, which together account for about 45% of assets. The fund charges an annual fee of 0.09% and has a 30-day SEC yield of 0.42%, covering over 300 companies in the tech space [8][10] - **Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR)** focuses on small U.S. companies with depressed valuations, charging a low expense ratio of 0.07% and offering a 30-day SEC yield of 2.03%. The fund holds over 800 stocks, providing diversification and targeting sectors like financials and industrials [11][13] Investment Strategy - The combination of these three funds provides a balanced approach to investing, offering international income, domestic growth, and contrarian value exposure, which can complement each other across different market cycles [14]

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) shares is a significant concern for investors, particularly those interested in dividend income, with current share price around $155 [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Appeal of Bank Shares - Australian investors favor bank shares, including CBA, ANZ Banking Group, and Macquarie Group, due to their stability and dividend income potential [2][3]. - The banking sector operates in an oligopoly, with limited success from foreign competitors like HSBC in penetrating the market [3]. Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common method for valuing shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share [4][5]. - CBA's current PE ratio is calculated at 27.5x, significantly higher than the banking sector average of 18x, leading to a sector-adjusted valuation of $102.65 [6]. Group 3: Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on past or forecasted dividends [7][8]. - Using last year's dividend of $4.65 and various risk rates, the DDM yields a valuation range for CBA shares between $98.33 and $100.66 [11][12]. - Adjusting for fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $6.80 results in a share price valuation of $143.80 [12]. Group 4: Growth and Risk Assumptions - Different growth rates (2% to 4%) and risk rates (6% to 11%) yield varying valuations, indicating the sensitivity of the share price to these assumptions [13].

Core Insights - PayPal (PYPL) stock has underperformed in recent years due to softer growth and increased competition, but its large user base, strong brand, and solid margins keep it relevant for investors [2][3] - The stock is currently trading at a lower than average valuation, with a significant decrease in its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio, making it a potential value buy [3][5] - Despite a 32% decline in stock price this year, operational efficiency and strategic pricing are enhancing margins, with a reported 7% revenue increase in Q3 2025 [5][6] Valuation and Performance - PYPL is trading at a P/E ratio below the median of the S&P 500, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [5][10] - The stock's current P/S ratio is 37% less expensive compared to one year ago, suggesting a significant discount [5][10] - The company has maintained strong operating margins, averaging 17.9% over the past three years, despite facing challenges in transaction volume growth [10] Growth and Competition - The company has experienced modest growth, with management raising its full-year EPS forecast to $5.35-$5.39, although the stock remains down over 30% year-to-date [6] - Ongoing competition and concerns regarding transaction volume growth in core segments are contributing to its discounted valuation [6][8] - The favorable aspects for the company include operational efficiency improvements and strategic pricing, particularly in its Braintree segment [6] Historical Context - PayPal has faced significant historical drawdowns, including a 20% decline during the 2018 correction and a 31% drop during the Covid pandemic, highlighting the stock's volatility [8] - Despite strong fundamentals, the stock has experienced substantial declines in adverse market conditions, indicating that risk remains a factor even in favorable environments [8]