The markets are seeing a hard crash on $BTC.However, there's infinite QE on the horizon, and a lot of macroeconomic tables will be turning in favor of risk-on assets.That itself proves that we're having one final opportunity to change our lives. By taking risk.A maximum of two final years before the biggest crisis ever occurs.Have risk-on assets before.Have cash after.Buy risk-on assets back later.You'll be fine. ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, with predictions indicating further drops due to a liquidity drought in the US financial system and deteriorating investor psychology [1][2][3] Market Conditions - Bitcoin fell 6% to $89,368, with predictions of a potential drop to between $80,000 and $85,000 during the current market weakness [1][2] - The cryptocurrency has declined 28% from its peak of $126,000 in October [3] Investor Sentiment - Current investor confidence in Bitcoin is at an all-time low, exacerbated by macroeconomic tightening and political uncertainty [3] - Analysts suggest that the relationship between Bitcoin and political factors, particularly President Trump's economic policies, is negatively impacting market sentiment [4] Future Predictions - There is a possibility for Bitcoin to rebound quickly if new liquidity enters the market, with potential price targets of $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year [4][5] - The market may not see a bullish trend until at least the second quarter of 2026, according to industry experts [4]

Core Insights - Central banks have adapted their policies and tools over the past two decades to support the economy, provide liquidity, and promote financial stability, particularly during crises like the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic [1][4][10] Group 1: Central Bank Operations - Central banks implement monetary policy based on principles such as interest rate control, liquidity provision, and financial stability support [6] - The balance sheets of central banks have significantly increased, reaching approximately 45%, 65%, and 35% of GDP in the UK, Eurosystem, and the US respectively, due to interventions during financial crises [11][14] - Central banks have utilized asset purchases not only to repair market functioning but also to support monetary accommodation when interest rates are near zero [9][10] Group 2: Challenges and Criticisms - Concerns regarding large central bank balance sheets include their rapid increase during crises and slow normalization during stable periods, which can create uncertainty in financial markets [15][16] - The public often lacks clarity on the reasons behind changes in central bank balance sheets, which serve multiple purposes such as emergency liquidity provision and policy accommodation [17] - The growth of central bank liabilities, such as currency in circulation and government accounts, complicates the return to pre-crisis balance sheet levels [14] Group 3: Communication and Transparency - Central banks are encouraged to improve communication regarding their actions and the rationale behind their decisions to enhance public understanding and trust [18][19] - Transparency in explaining the costs and benefits of competing actions is essential for accountability and credibility in monetary policy [19] - Adapting tools and tactics based on lessons learned from past experiences is crucial for effective central banking [20]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America's Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Hartnett, anticipates that stocks will maintain upward momentum into the first quarter of 2026, supported by the Federal Reserve, the Trump administration, and retail investors [1][5]. Market Dynamics - Hartnett identifies a "bubble in expectations" rather than a financial bubble as the reason behind recent market weakness, citing government support for markets, optimism regarding Fed quantitative easing, and benefits from tax cuts and tariff checks [2][4]. - The outlook for the stock market is influenced by various factors, including interest rate expectations and liquidity, with easing financial conditions typically supporting stock markets [2]. Optimistic Factors - Three key reasons for optimism regarding stock momentum include: 1. The "Fed put," which suggests the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy to support financial markets [6]. 2. The "Trump put," reflecting the administration's desire for a strong economy and stock market ahead of midterm elections [6]. 3. The "Gen Z put," referring to retail investors who are motivated by fear of missing out and act as reliable dip-buyers [6]. Economic Environment - The economic setup is described as "goldilocks," characterized by declining interest rates, steady profit growth, and productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence, which may help moderate inflation [4][5]. - Signs of a risk-off shift in markets are expected to emerge from bank stocks or widening credit spreads, indicating investor unease with rising debt levels as the Fed slows its monetary easing [5][7]. Uncertainty Factors - The economic outlook remains uncertain, exacerbated by the government shutdown that delayed the release of critical inflation and labor market data [8].

so many bullish catalysts to look forward to in the short-term:- U.S. Government reopening- December rate cuts- QT ending in December- QE beginning, possibly as early as Q1 2026- bullish Q4 seasonalityand all of these while crypto is oversold and lagging other financial assets and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 'Fear'this is not the place to be bearish! ...

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve 可能很快开始扩大资产负债表 [1] - 量化宽松 (QE) 对市场非常有利 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. Treasury (UST) market and the evolving demand dynamics since April 2025, particularly in the context of "de-dollarization" and foreign official sector selling [2][9][19]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **De-dollarization and UST Demand**: - There has been a notable decline in UST custodial holdings from the foreign official sector, dropping approximately $170 billion since late April 2025, despite a recent recovery of about $25 billion [9][10]. - This decline coincides with a weaker dollar and lower foreign reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) balances, indicating a potential reduction in USD holdings by officials [9][10]. 2. **Foreign Private Demand**: - Foreign private investors have significantly increased their UST holdings, with total foreign private buying nearly ten times the amount of official selling since the end of 2022 [19][20]. - This divergence suggests that while the official sector is a net seller, private demand remains robust, supporting the overall UST market [19][21]. 3. **Domestic Bank Purchases**: - Domestic banks have purchased around $160 billion in USTs since April 2025, offsetting much of the implied selling from custodial accounts [27][28]. - The increased bank buying is attributed to attractive asset swap valuations and a steeper front-end curve [27]. 4. **Investment Fund Activity**: - Investment funds continue to dominate UST auction demand, with inflows into UST fixed income funds remaining firm over the past year [30][36]. - Active fund inflows year-to-date have been among the strongest in the last five years, indicating a strong appetite for USTs [37][38]. 5. **Positioning Trends**: - Positioning among funds is described as modestly long and in steepeners, with a shift observed in the front end of the curve [34][35]. - Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) remain long based on momentum signals, which could exacerbate a selloff if rates trend higher [35][36]. 6. **Market Dynamics**: - The UST market is characterized by a flattening bias in the yield curve, driven by out-of-the-money longs at the front end and shorts at the back end [31][33]. - The overall demand landscape for USTs is supported by low volatility and the effects of virtual Treasury quantitative easing [2][36]. Additional Important Insights - **Foreign Official Selling**: - The relationship between foreign official holdings and UST spreads has shown little sensitivity, suggesting that other buyers are stepping in to absorb the selling pressure [17][19]. - **Hedged Pickup Analysis**: - The hedged pickup for USTs compared to local alternatives is currently negative for major foreign investor types, indicating potential challenges in attracting foreign investment [77][80]. - **Upcoming Economic Indicators**: - A calendar of upcoming U.S. economic data releases and Federal Reserve events is provided, which may impact UST demand and market sentiment [41]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the UST market, the contrasting behaviors of foreign official and private investors, and the positioning trends among domestic banks and investment funds.

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is preparing to expand its balance sheet again, indicating a new phase of quantitative easing, which has led to increased anticipation among crypto investors for a surge in liquidity [1][2] - The conclusion of the quantitative tightening program and the halt of balance-sheet reductions as of December 1 marks a shift in focus from lowering inflation to prioritizing market stability [2][3] - This policy adjustment is expected to reignite risk appetite among investors, particularly in speculative assets like cryptocurrencies [3] Cryptocurrency Market Impact - The reopening of liquidity taps by the Fed is likely to direct excess capital into the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum expected to lead the rally [4] - The anticipated balance-sheet expansion will lower financing costs and increase the appetite for higher-risk assets, benefiting the crypto sector [4] - A return to quantitative easing could trigger a significant short-term bull run in digital assets, reminiscent of the market dynamics seen in 2020 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the Federal Reserve's decision to halt quantitative tightening signals the start of a dangerous cycle of "stimulating into a bubble" rather than addressing economic weaknesses [1][2]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed will end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, maintaining a balance sheet of $6.5 trillion and redirecting agency security income into Treasury bills instead of mortgage-backed securities [2]. - Dalio perceives this shift as significant, occurring alongside large fiscal deficits and strong private credit creation, rather than merely a technical maneuver [2]. Market Conditions - The S&P 500 earnings yield stands at 4.4%, slightly above the 10-year Treasury yield of 4%, resulting in an equity risk premium of just 0.4% [3]. - Current economic conditions contrast sharply with previous quantitative easing periods, as the economy is growing at 2% annually, unemployment is at 4.3%, and inflation exceeds the Fed's 2% target, currently over 3% [4]. Investment Implications - Dalio suggests that the current easing will inflate a bubble rather than mitigate a downturn, with AI stocks already identified as being in bubble territory according to his indicators [5]. - The combination of significant fiscal deficits, shortened Treasury maturities, and central bank balance sheet expansion exemplifies "classic Big Debt Cycle late cycle dynamics" [5]. Market Liquidity Insights - Analysts note that while discussions around QE and QT are prevalent, actual liquidity began to increase between October and December 2022, coinciding with the end of tightening [6]. - Concerns are raised that crypto markets, which are sensitive to liquidity conditions, may not find a bottom until actual quantitative easing is initiated, rather than just halting tightening [6].

Core Viewpoint - The next bull run for Bitcoin may be imminent as the U.S. Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet to support increasing government debt, according to Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Hayes suggests that "stealth quantitative easing" through the Fed's repo facilities will inject new dollar liquidity into the financial system, which he believes will drive Bitcoin prices higher [2][11]. - The conditions that previously fueled Bitcoin's surges—easy money and rising government debt—are returning, with the Fed's Standing Repo Facility acting as a hidden form of quantitative easing [3][11]. - U.S. deficits are projected to be around $2 trillion annually, which will necessitate continued borrowing by the Treasury, prompting the Fed to intervene [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Hayes emphasizes that if the Fed's balance sheet expands, it will create positive dollar liquidity, ultimately boosting the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies [8]. - Foreign central banks, once significant buyers of U.S. Treasuries, are now cautious due to political risks, leading reserve managers to prefer gold instead [9]. - Leveraged hedge funds, known as "relative value" (RV) funds, have become the marginal buyers of U.S. debt, financing their purchases through repo markets [9].