Although optimism abounds on Wall Street, historical precedent paints a different picture for the upcoming year.Despite enduring a very short-lived stock market crash in early April, following the unveiling of President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy, Wall Street's major stock indexes have predominantly been off to the races over the last eight months. Through the closing bell on Dec. 22, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 0.04%), broad-based S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.03%), and growth-powered Nas ...

Core Viewpoint - High valuations and uncertain business conditions are expected to negatively impact certain AI stocks over the next year, despite significant returns since the end of the 2022 bear market [1] Group 1: Palantir Technologies - Palantir Technologies has seen its stock rise nearly 33-fold from its 2022 low, driven by its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) which has delivered substantial productivity gains for clients [4] - The stock is currently trading at a market cap of $450 billion, with a trailing P/E ratio just above 450 and a forward P/E of around 270, indicating potential bubble territory [5][7] - Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 51% year over year, but the stock is priced beyond perfection, raising questions about its near-term upside [8] Group 2: C3.ai - C3.ai has developed over 130 software applications for AI adoption, but has faced significant challenges, including the departure of its founder and CEO due to health issues [9][10] - The company reduced its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance from $448 million-$485 million to $290 million-$310 million, with a 20% year-over-year revenue decline in the first half of fiscal 2026 [11][12] - The stock has fallen over 60% from a year ago, trading at a P/S ratio of 5, but deteriorating financials and uncertain management direction raise concerns about its investment viability [14] Group 3: Rigetti Computing - Rigetti Computing operates in the quantum computing sector, which is crucial for next-generation AI, but faces competition from larger companies like Alphabet and IBM [15][16] - The company reported a revenue of just $5.2 million in the first nine months of 2025, a 39% decline from the previous year, and incurred a net loss of $198 million [18][19] - The stock has decreased nearly 60% from its October 2025 high, and with a price-to-book ratio of 22, it presents more risk than reward for investors [19]

Core Insights - D-Wave is positioned to become a significant player in the quantum computing industry over the next decade due to increasing government interest and the launch of its Advantage2 quantum system [1] - The company is expected to see stock price appreciation driven by its expanding real-world applications in sectors such as defense, logistics, and artificial intelligence [1] Company Developments - D-Wave's Advantage2 quantum system is now operational, which is a critical milestone for the company [1] - New capital influx is enhancing D-Wave's strategic roadmap, potentially leading to further advancements and market penetration [1] Market Potential - The growing interest from government entities indicates a robust market demand for quantum computing solutions [1] - Real-world applications of D-Wave's technology are broadening, which could lead to significant upside if the company executes its plans effectively [1]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is making significant advancements in quantum computing through new chiplet-based architectures and improved hardware fidelity, which may present a substantial investment opportunity if execution and competition are managed effectively [1] Company Developments - The company is enhancing its hardware capabilities and forming partnerships with both government and industry, indicating a strategic approach to expand its market presence [1] Market Potential - As quantum computing progresses towards practical applications, Rigetti could potentially unlock considerable upside for investors, contingent on its ability to navigate competitive challenges [1]

Company Overview - IonQ is a pure-play quantum computing company that utilizes trapped-ion technology, allowing for high accuracy and operation at room temperature, distinguishing it from competitors using cryogenically cooled systems [3] Revenue Streams - IonQ generates revenue primarily by selling access to its quantum computing power on a per-use or subscription basis through cloud partnerships and its own cloud service [1] - The company also sells specialized quantum computing hardware systems to select customers, including government labs and research institutions, along with maintenance and support services [1] Strategic Partnerships and R&D - IonQ collaborates with third-party cloud platforms such as Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure Quantum, and Google Cloud to make its quantum computers accessible [2] - A significant portion of IonQ's resources is allocated to R&D aimed at enhancing the performance, accuracy, and scalability of its quantum systems [2] - The company is expanding into quantum networking, security, and sensing applications through strategic acquisitions [2] Recent Developments - IonQ achieved a revenue of $39.9 million in Q3 2025, marking a 222% year-over-year increase, despite operating at a loss [7] - The company ended the quarter with a strong cash and investment position of $1.5 billion [7] - IonQ reached an Algorithmic Qubit score of AQ 64 on its fifth-generation IonQ Tempo system, allowing it to evaluate over 18 quintillion possibilities [8] Market Potential - Quantum computing is projected to unlock trillions in economic value, with a market expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 30% or more through 2035 [10] - IonQ's advancements in quantum networking could further expand its long-term addressable market [10] Applications - The achievement of AQ 64 enables IonQ's quantum computers to address complex problems that classical supercomputers cannot, with potential applications in drug development, financial modeling, and logistics optimization [9]

Industry Overview - Quantum computing is currently less popular among investors, presenting potential buying opportunities as stock prices are driven by hype [1] - Experts predict that broad real-world advantages of quantum computing over classical computers will not be realized before 2030, indicating a long wait for identifying industry winners [2] Company Analysis: Alphabet - Alphabet has leveraged its dominance in Google Search to fund various ventures, including quantum computing, which shows promise [5] - The company announced its Willow chip demonstrated a verifiable quantum computing advantage, suggesting that viable quantum computing may be closer than previously thought [6] - Alphabet's diversified business model allows it to use excess cash flow for quantum research, potentially enhancing its AI and cloud computing efforts [7][8] Company Analysis: Nvidia - Nvidia is not developing a quantum processing unit but is focusing on maximizing its traditional GPUs while also addressing the quantum realm through hybrid systems [9] - The release of NVQLink positions Nvidia as a key player in interfacing traditional and quantum computing technologies [10] - With strong demand for its AI accelerators, Nvidia is expected to be a solid investment while waiting for quantum technology advancements [12] Company Analysis: IonQ - IonQ is a high-risk company focused on developing practical quantum computing solutions, utilizing trapped ion qubits for greater accuracy [13][14] - The company holds a world record for two-qubit gate fidelity at 99.99%, significantly outperforming competitors [15] - IonQ is considered a leading start-up in quantum computing, with potential for substantial returns if its technology succeeds [17]

Core Insights - D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) and IonQ (IONQ) are positioned uniquely in the quantum computing sector as 2026 approaches, with distinct investment narratives emerging from their respective performances and strategies [1][3]. D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) - D-Wave has demonstrated strong commercial momentum, with third-quarter results showing revenue and gross profit more than doubling year over year, and cash balances reaching over $836 million [1][7]. - The Advantage2 system is operational for enterprise and government users, with significant contracts, including a €10 million installation in Europe expected to contribute to revenues starting in 2026 [5]. - Management emphasizes a strong pipeline with larger average deal sizes and over $100 million in annual QCaaS revenue capacity, positioning 2026 as a monetization year rather than purely focused on R&D [6]. - Despite the positive outlook, QBTS faces execution risks due to revenue concentration from specific system sales, which may lead to uneven bookings and revenue timing [10]. - Analysts project a revenue growth of 61.1% for QBTS in 2026, with an expected earnings growth of 7% [9][14]. IonQ (IONQ) - IonQ has reported gains through strategic partnerships and deployments, including the delivery of its 100-qubit Tempo system to South Korea's KISTI, enhancing its global market penetration [2]. - The Tempo system, achieving AQ 64 and 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, is expected to drive revenue growth as it demonstrates measurable quantum advantage in various applications [11]. - IonQ's transformation into a full quantum platform company, including acquisitions and government engagement, expands its addressable market and supports sustained growth despite ongoing operating losses [12]. - IonQ is projected to achieve revenue growth of 83.3% in 2026, with an expected earnings growth of 65.8% [9][14]. Comparative Performance - Year-to-date, QBTS stock has surged 227.6%, significantly outperforming IONQ's 19.2% gain, reflecting divergent investor sentiment due to differences in near-term commercial execution [3]. - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), but IonQ is viewed as having stronger long-term upside potential due to its technical advancements and substantial cash reserves [17].

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Core Insights - IonQ has secured a significant sale of a 100-qubit quantum system to the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), aimed at advancing hybrid quantum-classical computing methods [1][8] - The financial specifics of the KISTI deal remain undisclosed, and the delivery timeline for the system is not clear [2] - Despite the impressive nature of the sale, the current market valuation of IonQ, with a market cap of $18.3 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of 229, raises concerns about the sustainability of its stock price [7][9] Quantum Computing Context - The 100-qubit system, while notable, is limited in practical application as IonQ's most advanced system in 2025 will only feature 36 qubits, highlighting the challenges in achieving meaningful quantum computing tasks [3][5] - Theoretical research indicates that transformative quantum computing applications will necessitate thousands of algorithmic qubits and millions of physical qubits, emphasizing the gap between current capabilities and future requirements [4][8] - After accounting for error correction, the effective number of algorithmic qubits available for research from the 100 physical qubits is reduced to 64, further illustrating the limitations of IonQ's offering [5] Market Perspective - The current enthusiasm among investors for IonQ's stock may be misplaced, as the company is perceived to be priced for perfection in a market that is still developing [7][9] - The potential for quantum computing to generate significant wealth in the long term is acknowledged, but the uncertainty surrounding which companies will succeed makes IonQ's stock a risky investment at present [9]