Market Overview - Risk assets concluded a strong year with a solid performance in the fourth quarter [2] - Non-US equity markets outperformed, contrasting with recent trends observed in 2025 [2]

According to CNBC, Wells Fargo analysts predict a return of the "YOLO" trade as the U.S. tax refund season approaches. They estimate that approximately $150 billion in tax refunds will flow into the market by the end of March, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks. https://t.co/OzSP65DCed ...

Core Insights - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to influence Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][4] - A strong jobs report indicated that the economy is not cooling sufficiently, leading to concerns about the Fed maintaining high interest rates [2][3] - The anticipated year-over-year inflation rate is projected to decrease to 2.5%, which could increase pressure on the Fed to consider rate cuts [4] Group 1: Market Reactions - The recent labor report showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, which was perceived negatively by the markets as it suggests the Fed may not lower rates soon [2][3] - Bitcoin is currently stabilizing around $68,500, influenced by macroeconomic factors and technical support levels [5] - A hot inflation report could lead to a decline in Bitcoin prices, while a cooler report might trigger a relief rally [5][6] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Derek Lim from Caladan emphasized that inflation metrics are currently more critical than employment data for market movements [4] - The market is experiencing volatility as traders prepare for the CPI release, with expectations of sharp price movements based on the inflation data [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is facing renewed macroeconomic pressure due to a stronger-than-expected US labor market, which has led to higher Treasury yields and diminished the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly double the consensus expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, indicating continued resilience in the labor market [1]. - Strong employment data complicates the outlook for risk assets like Bitcoin, as it reduces the urgency for monetary easing [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the jobs report, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose toward the 4.2% level, with several basis points increase, while the two-year yield also climbed, reflecting a reduced probability of near-term rate cuts [4]. - Higher yields tighten financial conditions, increasing borrowing costs across the economy and raising the discount rate used to value risk assets [5]. Group 3: Impact on Bitcoin - Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity conditions; rising Treasury yields lead to a rotation of capital toward safer, yield-generating assets like government bonds [6]. - A stronger dollar often accompanies rising yields, which reduces global liquidity and makes speculative assets like Bitcoin less attractive [6]. - This combination of factors creates headwinds for crypto markets [8].

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Amanda Cooper NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000 on Friday, after sinking to a 16‑month low earlier, lifted by a sharp rebound in technology shares and precious metals following a global rout that had hammered a broad swathe of risk assets. The world's ​largest cryptocurrency was last up more than 11% at $70,231, rising as high as $71,464.96 and recouping losses that pushed it to $60,017.60, the lowest level since October ‌24, earlier o ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin has hit new lows for the year, briefly falling below $73,000, marking levels not seen since November 2024 [1][5] - Crypto-linked stocks such as Coinbase, Strategy, Circle, and Gemini have experienced declines of at least 15% over the past five trading days [1][5] - The recent drop in Bitcoin coincided with a broader sell-off in risk assets, including significant declines in major U.S. tech stocks [2][3] Group 2 - Some experts suggest there may be a "value zone" for Bitcoin in the mid-$70,000s, although it recently traded above $76,000 [2] - Predictions for Bitcoin prices are pessimistic, with a 48% probability placed on prices hitting $70,000 or below in the near term [4] - A shorter-term events contract indicates that bettors expect Bitcoin prices to end below current levels by the end of February [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 3% decline, dropping below $90,000, influenced by turmoil in Japan's government bond market and U.S. President Trump's tariff threats against Europe [1] - Ether (ETH) saw a more significant drop of over 7%, falling below the $3,000 mark for the first time since January 2 [1] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has increased, reaching 59.8% of the overall digital asset market capitalization, indicating a growing grip over altcoins [2] - The volatility in the market suggests that Bitcoin may continue to trade lower, with altcoins likely to be more adversely affected in the short term [2] Broader Market Trends - The Nasdaq index fell nearly 2%, while the Nikkei and Germany's DAX also experienced declines of 2.5% and 1%, respectively [3] - In contrast, precious metals have gained popularity as safe havens, with gold rising 3% and silver increasing by 7%, both reaching new record highs [3] - Bitcoin's current trading level is just 3% above its value at the beginning of the year, indicating a significant loss of its 2026 gains [3]

Group 1 - Bitcoin price surged above $95,000 following lower-than-expected US inflation data, with BTC climbing over 4% in 24 hours and altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano gaining nearly 8% [1][2] - The decline in inflation leads to cheaper borrowing costs, encouraging investors to return to risk assets such as cryptocurrencies [2][3] - Bond yields fell and the dollar weakened, prompting cash to seek new investment opportunities, with Bitcoin being viewed as a hedge against central bank uncertainty [3] Group 2 - Over $688 million in crypto futures positions were liquidated in one day due to the price surge, primarily affecting traders who were betting against the market [4] - New investors are cautioned against emotional buying during sharp rallies, with a recommendation to focus on spot buying rather than leveraged trading [5] - Bitcoin is nearing price levels that previously triggered significant selling, and the rapid rebuilding of leverage in derivatives markets could lead to increased volatility [6][7]

Core Insights - The equity market has experienced an exceptional two-year period, with valuations reaching some of the highest levels in history [1] - The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index is currently at elevated levels, indicating a potentially overvalued market [1] Company and Industry Analysis - The analysis highlights the importance of identifying reasonably priced businesses that possess sustainable long-term competitive advantages, particularly in sectors such as technology, telecom, and banking [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies have experienced significant intraday volatility, with Bitcoin trading between $89,420 and $93,000, reflecting a 4.3% price movement within 24 hours [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Nasdaq has shown similar intraday volatility, indicating a correlation between Bitcoin and other risk assets [2]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) is a key catalyst for the rebound in risk assets, including Bitcoin, as it may enhance the appeal of assets viewed as inflation hedges [5]. - An improving outlook for risk assets has led to increased buying activity for Bitcoin and high-growth equities [6]. Group 2: Trading Sentiment - Liquidation data indicates a mixed scenario, with both long and short positions being unwound, suggesting traders are uncertain about Bitcoin's future direction [6]. - The recent bullish price action for Bitcoin is primarily sentiment-driven, countering concerns from a downgrade by Standard Chartered and potential index bans on crypto-heavy firms [7][8].