Economic Policy and Tax Cuts - The president's recent speech emphasized the benefits of a significant bill passed in 2025, with $150 billion in new tax cuts for American workers expected to be realized in 2026 [1] - Businesses will benefit from $200 billion in capital investment due to 100% expensing of capital equipment, R&D, and property [1] - The administration is not expected to pursue large new tax cuts following the recent reconciliation bill, focusing instead on smaller measures like housing and infrastructure [1] Housing Market and Financial Sector - Housing stocks declined due to the lack of a comprehensive housing plan, with specific bills like manufactured housing expected to be introduced [2][4] - Financial deregulation is seen as a priority, with the potential to lower mortgage rates, which are currently at their lowest in four years [4][5] - The performance of bank stocks is more closely tied to the yield curve rather than financial deregulation, indicating a challenging environment for financial institutions [6][7] Defense and Technology - The president's speech included a warning about Iran's missile capabilities, which could provide a pretext for military action if negotiations fail [1] - There was a lack of discussion on AI, which is currently unpopular among voters, but there are plans to facilitate tech companies in building data centers to circumvent local opposition [2]

From trade to healthcare, from energy to immigration, everything was stolen and rigged in order to drain the wealth out of the productive, hardworking people who make our country great, who make our country run. Under Biden and his corrupt partners in Congress and beyond, the same people in this chamber who voted for those disasters suddenly use the word affordability. Their policies created the high prices.Our policies are rapidly ending them. >> That's President Trump delivering a message of hope and prid ...

economic agenda hasn't tanked the economy]."Read morePartner Links## Related Articles[Sticky Inflation Likely to Keep Fed on Hold Despite Weaker Economy][Fed Minutes Show Division as Rate Cuts Remain on the Table][The Economy Is Growing: So Where Are The New Jobs?][The Fed's Favorite Measure Of Inflation Was Hotter Than Expected at the End of 2025][GDP Report Live: Despite Growth Slowdown, 'Core of the Economy is Resilient'][What To Expect From Friday's Report On Inflation][What To Expect From Friday's Repo ...

Group 1: Tariff Costs and Impact - A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found that nearly 90% of the cost of President Trump's 2025 tariffs was borne by US firms and consumers, contradicting claims that foreign countries were responsible for the costs [1][4][9] - In the first eight months of 2025, 94% of tariff costs were absorbed by American businesses and consumers, with this share decreasing to 92% in September and October, and further to 86% in November as foreign exporters began to take on more costs [1][2][9] Group 2: Revenue and Economic Effects - The US collected $30 billion in customs duties in January alone, leading to a fiscal year-to-date total of $124 billion, which represents a 304% increase from the same period a year earlier [10] - For the calendar year 2025, tariff collections reached $287 billion, nearly tripling the previous year's total, with projections indicating that levies will raise $171.1 billion in 2026, marking the largest tax increase since 1993 [10] Group 3: Domestic Investment and Supply Chain Diversification - Tariffs have reportedly spurred domestic investment and supply-chain diversification, with companies like Stellantis pledging $13 billion, Toyota $10 billion, and Apple announcing $600 billion in US investment [12] - China's share of US imports has decreased to below 10% in 2025, down from nearly 25% in 2017, as Mexico and Vietnam have gained market share, which advocates argue reduces dependence on a single foreign supplier [13]

Core Insights - The January jobs report exceeded expectations, with the American workforce adding 130,000 jobs, indicating a resilient economy [1][4] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, slightly better than the anticipated 4.4%, reflecting renewed strength in the labor market [7] Economic Impact - The job growth is attributed to a favorable economic environment created by tax cuts, which provide businesses with the certainty needed to hire and expand [2][4] - The report suggests that the economy is gaining momentum, with growth accelerating from just under 4% in Q2 to 4.4% in Q3, leading to increased hiring [8] Sector Performance - Job gains were primarily concentrated in healthcare and construction, while sectors like retail trade and financial activities experienced job losses of 25,000 and 7,000 respectively [8] - The report highlights that the job creation is driven by private sector confidence rather than public sector employment, indicating a healthier economic outlook [8]

Core Insights - New tax laws significantly reduced Amazon's U.S. corporate income taxes by more than half in 2025, despite a rise in profits [1][2] - Amazon's U.S. taxes decreased from $9 billion to $1.2 billion, with federal income taxes on a cash basis dropping from $7 billion to $2.8 billion, while pretax U.S. profit increased by 44.5% to $89.5 billion [2] Tax Law Changes - The tax cuts are attributed to two changes in tax law signed by President Trump, allowing immediate deductions for certain capital investments and new domestic research [3] - Much of the equipment used in Amazon's data centers qualifies for these immediate deductions [4] Amazon's Investment and Tax Strategy - Amazon reported spending $340 billion on operating costs and capital investments in U.S. data centers in 2025 [4] - The company stated that the tax code changes encourage greater investment in the American economy, reflecting its significant U.S. investments [5] Broader Industry Context - The White House's legislation aims to incentivize domestic manufacturing with full 100% expensing for new factories and equipment [6] - AI-related infrastructure spending by Big Tech is projected to exceed $2.8 trillion through 2029, driven by early investments and rising demand for enterprise AI [6] - Citigroup forecasts capital expenditures among hyperscalers to reach $490 billion by the end of 2026 [7]

Economic Growth and Policy - The current economic agenda is focused on pro-growth measures, including tax cuts for consumers and businesses, lower interest rates, and significant deregulation aimed at reversing the regulatory framework established after the global financial crisis [3][4]. - The budget deficit has reportedly decreased by approximately $90 billion compared to January of the previous year, indicating a period of growth that is generating higher tax revenues [4]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - Recent manufacturing data shows a notable improvement, with the Institute for Supply Managers reporting strong new orders and production figures, suggesting a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][10]. - The negative impact of tariffs on manufacturing has diminished, leading to a resurgence in growth within the sector, aided by immediate expensing of capital equipment [10]. Future Economic Outlook - There is optimism for GDP growth in 2026, with expectations of a growth spurt occurring in the latter half of 2025 as well [5][7]. - The appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman is anticipated to positively influence economic conditions, with a focus on achieving high growth alongside low inflation [8].

KEY TAKEAWAYS Tax filing season has started, and to get a refund quickly, taxpayers need to submit their 2025 tax returns accurately, and typically, electronically. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" made changes to the tax code that will give many taxpayers larger refunds. These changes, along with major layoffs that affected the IRS in 2025, may delay some taxpayers' returns. The 2026 tax filing season officially started Tuesday, and you'll want to submit your tax return as soon as possible, without m ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.30% but remained below Monday's 3.5-week high, supported by higher T-note yields and comments from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin regarding expected tax cuts and deregulation to boost growth this year [1] - The US December S&P services PMI was revised downward by -0.4 to 52.5 from the previously reported 52.9, indicating a slight weakening in service sector activity [3] - The markets are currently pricing in an 18% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28, reflecting market expectations for monetary policy adjustments [4] Group 2: Fed Policy and Interest Rates - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that Fed policy is "clearly restrictive" and suggested that more than 100 basis points of rate cuts are justified this year, highlighting a potential shift in monetary policy [4] - The dollar is under pressure as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, contrasting with expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [5] - Concerns about President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair, likely to be National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, are contributing to bearish sentiment for the dollar [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The dollar retains some safe-haven support due to escalating geopolitical risks in Venezuela, particularly following the US capturing Venezuelan President Maduro and President Trump's comments about temporarily "running" Venezuela [1]

Economic Growth and Inflation - The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in late 2025, with overall output rising at an annual pace of about 4% to 4.5% in the third quarter, driven by increased consumer spending and business investment [4] - Inflation has cooled, with prices rising 2.7% in November compared to the previous year, which is lower than the 3.1% economists had estimated [5] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 ended 2025 with a gain of 17%, indicating a strong year for U.S. stocks [2] Legislative Developments - Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, extends expiring tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and introduces new federal initiatives [9][10] - The OBBBA is expected to result in significant tax refunds for working Americans, with predictions of refunds ranging from $1,000 to $2,000 due to changes in tax withholding [13] Tariff Policies - In April, Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and reviving U.S. manufacturing, although critics warn of potential consumer price increases [20] - Total duty revenue reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, with $96.5 billion collected since the start of the new fiscal year [21] - Trump claims that tariff revenue could fund a $2,000 dividend for low- and middle-income Americans [23]