Imagine getting a government budget passed with bipartisan support and no shutdown, featuring tax cuts President Donald Trump campaigned on — eliminating income tax on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits. Nirvana? No, Michigan. Must Read In October, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a progressive state Democrat, worked with colleagues across the aisle to pass the fiscal year 2026 (FY26) state budget. “We were able to get it done in a really hard political climate nationally to show that Michigan could ...

Core Insights - Millions of Americans will see tax savings for the 2025 tax season due to the provisions of the Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which made many aspects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent and introduced new tax deductions and credits for households [1] Tax Savings by Income Group - Working-class families earning between $15,000 and $30,000 will experience a 21% tax cut, the largest reduction among all income groups [2] State-Specific Tax Savings - Taxpayers in different states will experience varying levels of tax savings, with some states projected to save significantly more than others [3] California - California taxpayers are expected to save an average of $2,293.15 annually, primarily due to estate and gift tax breaks, averaging $898 per return, potentially saving over $3.2 million per estate [4] - The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction is significant, with about 15% of Californians itemizing their returns, leading to average savings exceeding $5,200. Seniors benefit from an average savings of $1,386 with a new $6,000 senior deduction, and over 6.6 million qualifying children are eligible for the Child Tax Credit (CTC) [5] Oregon - Oregon taxpayers are projected to save an average of $2,226.61 annually, with estate and gift tax benefits averaging about $963 per return, allowing estates to save upwards of $2.5 million [6] - Approximately 13% of Oregonians itemize their returns, resulting in average tax savings exceeding $5,500. Seniors, making up about 20% of the population, could save over $1,100 on average with the new senior deduction, and there are over 670,000 qualifying children eligible for the CTC [7] Massachusetts - Massachusetts ranks third, with taxpayers saving an average of $2,150.45 annually, driven largely by estate and gift tax savings, which average about $921 per return, with individual estates saving more than $2.3 million [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a supply-side economist to lead the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that tax incentives can drive growth while keeping inflation low [1][2][4]. Group 1: Supply-Side Economics - Supply-side economists believe that tax incentives can generate faster economic growth with lower inflation, contrasting with the Fed's traditional demand-side approach [2]. - The article argues that the Fed has historically misunderstood the relationship between growth and inflation, leading to detrimental policies [2][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - There are five finalists mentioned for the top position at the Federal Reserve, including Rick Ryder, Mickey Bowman, Chris Waller, Kevin Hasset, and Kevin Walsh [3]. - President Trump is expected to make a decision on the new Fed chair after Thanksgiving, as Jerome Powell's term ends in May [4]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - The article posits that tax cuts combined with tight monetary policy could achieve economic growth rates of 4% to 5% with virtually zero inflation [5].

Businesses are making good money. And that's the strong currency behind their rising valuation. I know that experts always talk about various political or economic factors, like the China trade, or what the Fed's gonna do, peace in the Middle East, or why might New York City elect a communist mayor. I'm not sayin' these things don't matter. And in most cases, President Trump is carving out success after success. So it's a good backdrop for stocks. Fundamentally, the stock is only worth what someone will pay ...

Americans, particularly the affluent, are set to receive larger tax refunds or smaller tax bills when they file in 2026, because of President Donald Trump’s tax and spending package passed in July, an economist said. Total taxpayer savings could amount to an additional $50 billion because the IRS has yet to update its withholding tables to account for new provisions retroactive to the start of 2025, Oxford lead economist Nancy Vanden Houten said in a report this week. The only way taxpayers can benefit f ...

President Donald Trump’s new tax bill cuts the income tax liability for many Americans. Altogether, roughly 40% of U.S. households could pay $0 in federal income tax in 2025, according to the Tax Policy Center (1). That’s in line with the 40% of households that had a $0 federal tax bill in 2022, under the Biden administration. However, Trump’s tax cuts favor specific groups, which means you could see a $0 tax bill for the first time if you meet certain conditions (2). Must Read Here’s a closer look at w ...

Joining us now, a Democratic Congressman from Maryland, Glenn Ivy, who represents about 65,000 federal workers. Congresswoman, welcome. Um, you just heard AOC there.Do you agree with her that Democrats are looking for a long-term solution. They don't want any kind of a quick band-aid fix. Well, I think her uh political analysis is right there for sure.And couple points in addition, keep in mind that when it came to extending the tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, the House Republicans and the Senate Rep ...

says that's because investors are paying attention to different things in DC. Fiscal and monetary policy, which I think Dan Clifton, uh, head of policy research at Strategus, uh, research, which is a bar company. Both of those are are going to be positive, I think, at least, um, for GDP, aren't they, Dan.There's there's some serious uh, scratch coming our way in the economy from these things. Absolutely, Joe. Great to see you.I mean, there's a lot of noise here from Washington, and there are some real risks ...

Core Insights - President Trump's assertion that U.S. growth can manage debt reflects a misunderstanding of the debt cycle, as noted by Ray Dalio, who warns that this phase is dangerous when leaders confuse prosperity with immunity [1][5]. Economic Policy and Tax Cuts - Trump highlighted his "Big, Beautiful Bill," which aims to lock in and expand tax cuts from his first term while introducing new deductions for tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income for seniors [2]. - The combination of this tax package and recent tariffs is expected to generate "record growth" and significant fiscal benefits [2]. Debt and Economic Growth - Despite a reported Real GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2 2025, the gross federal debt remains substantial at approximately $37.4 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio around 100% [3]. - Tariff revenues are projected to reach about $165 billion by August and an annualized $300 billion, which is insufficient to address the trillion-dollar debt reduction needed [4]. Warnings from Debt Cycle Analysis - Ray Dalio's research indicates that during economic booms, increased lending can temporarily boost spending and asset prices, but this is unsustainable as income growth will eventually lag behind loan costs [5][6]. - Dalio emphasizes that debt burdens can only be alleviated when nominal income growth exceeds nominal interest rates, cautioning that excessive stimulus may lead to inflation and currency devaluation [5].

Economic Overview - The current economic situation is perceived to be worse than many realize, with significant payroll losses and stagnant private payroll growth [14][15] - The inflation rate is above the Federal Reserve's target, with a three-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.5%, and goods inflation at 3.0% [5][6] Tariffs and Inflation - Tariffs are believed to have contributed to inflation, with costs being passed on to consumers, although there are arguments that tax cuts and deregulation have also played a role in lowering costs [7][8] - The debate exists on whether the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time issue or a more persistent problem [6][10] Income Distribution - Under Biden's presidency, the middle class saw no gains when adjusted for inflation, while the poor became poorer, contrasting with the economic growth experienced during Trump's first term [17][18] - The discussion highlights a philosophical difference in economic policies, with a focus on the impact of income redistribution efforts [18] Employment and Immigration - A significant drop in immigration numbers is noted, which could affect employment figures, with estimates suggesting a reduction from millions to potentially negative numbers [19][20] - The importance of analyzing both current and past inflation numbers is emphasized, as they can influence perceptions of economic health [21] Stock Market Sentiment - The stock market is viewed as a more reliable indicator of economic health than inflation numbers, with current market performance being described as positive [22]