In today’s India Edition, Menaka Doshi looks at the trade deal with New Zealand. https://t.co/81bMi8upYA ...

As the European Union struggles to complete a trade deal with Mercosur, competitors eyeing South America’s consumer market and vast mineral resources are taking note. https://t.co/0BuaFy3hjS ...

A US-Japan consultation panel held its first meeting to consider initial projects for a $550 billion investment pledge that is a pillar of the two countries’ trade deal https://t.co/OSzWQhw9i8 ...

Swiss companies are potentially entitled to claim “several hundred million francs” in tariff refunds from the US because the trade deal between the nations will be applied retroactively, Switzerland’s economy minister said https://t.co/Bg4PLhr116 ...

The European Parliament approved measures to protect European farmers under a potential trade deal with South American countries, a key technical step needed to finalize the landmark pact https://t.co/Y8ZjltYLZx ...

UK and South Korea strike trade deal https://t.co/ZvQKUNHpQR ...

Switzerland lifts the growth outlook for next year on the back of its trade deal with the US https://t.co/4vfS0FpFlv ...

The U.S. government has paused a tech-focused trade pledge with Britain over broader disagreements about Britain's digital regulations and food safety rules. ...

The US is seeking to expand and deepen its defense relationship with Vietnam, according to Washington’s top envoy there, as the two sides continue to hammer out details of a trade deal https://t.co/MqxVOak6nm ...

Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]