S&P short term top is very close imo.This AI threat of unemployment is real until new roles and potentially even UBI becomes a serious talking point imo.On top of this, the gold market is rallying hard here, threats of us attacking Iran, which will inevitably lead us into a war, which leads to uncertainty, and with uncertainty, markets react negatively.I look at crypto as front running a lot of this price action wise, will BTC trade sub 50k? MaybeWill ETH trade sub 1k? Unlikely, but prolly closeSOL back dow ...

Key TakeawaysGerman Q4 GDP was finalized at 0.3% growth, with internal demand components like private consumption (0.5%) and capital investment (1.0%) significantly outperforming market estimates.Thai stocks surged 1.6% following a rate cut by the Bank of Thailand, as the central bank pledged to maintain an accommodative stance to support economic recovery.German GfK Consumer Confidence for March disappointed at -24.7, missing the consensus estimate of -23.0 and highlighting a growing rift between past grow ...

traditions, culture, and collegiality of the Fed. We believe Powell will cede the spotlight to Kevin Warsh, if he is confirmed by the Senate, and make a graceful exit from the central bank.Conclusion: We Expect Fed to Maintain Credibility; Remain Constructive on Stocks, Underweight Fixed IncomeThe Fed has done enough to maintain a solid economy, in our view, and now it must pause to see if the economic data supports its current monetary policy. As for the political and leadership headwinds, we believe the b ...

For some, these are the boom times. 401ks are surging. The stock market has hit an all-time high.But drive just 350 miles from the nation's capital. And the conversation isn't about how to get rich, but how to survive. McDow County, West Virginia, was once the nation's largest coal producer.It is now one of the poorest places in the country where the food stamp program started and later the opioid crisis took hold. Today, one in three households there depends on those food stamps. And now the program that h ...

RT Handre van Heerden (@Handrev)The 1920-21 depression was arguably more severe than 1929's initial crash - unemployment hit 19%, industrial production collapsed 32%, and wholesale prices plummeted 37%. Yet this economic catastrophe has been virtually erased from mainstream economic education because it demolishes the British pedophile John Maynard Keynes' narrative that government must intervene to save capitalism from itself.President Harding did the unthinkable by modern standards: absolutely nothing. No ...

Group 1 - Treasuries experienced a slight increase after a two-day selloff, influenced by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, with the 10-year note yield falling to 4.07% and the two-year note yield rising to 3.47% [1] - President Trump's comments regarding negotiations with Iran contributed to market movements, indicating a limited timeframe for a deal, which helped to stabilize Treasury prices [1][2] - The demand for 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was strong, with a $9 billion auction reflecting investor interest amid inflation worries [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions from the US military buildup in the Middle East have negatively impacted stock prices and contributed to rising oil prices, raising inflation concerns [4] - A prolonged US-led operation for regime change could significantly affect energy markets, challenging the current disinflation narrative and increasing medium-term inflation risks [5] - Recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicated that officials are considering interest rate hikes if inflation remains high, leading to reduced expectations for rate cuts in the near term [6] - Unemployment benefit applications fell significantly, suggesting a resilient labor market, which aligns with the Fed's assessment that employment risks have moderated [7]

Economic Overview - The economy is experiencing a nearly six-year expansion but is showing mixed signals recently [3] - Economic growth is expected to be soft in the first half of the year due to gloomy consumer sentiment and weak new orders for manufactured goods [7] Labor Market - Unemployment decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, with employers adding 130,000 jobs, surpassing expectations [4] - Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 23,000 to 206,000, marking the largest decline since November [4] - The labor market is described as resilient, though softer than in previous years [5][6] Inflation Trends - Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, slowed to 2.4% from 2.7% in December [5] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, decreased to 2.5% from 2.6% [6] - The Federal Reserve aims to balance inflation at 2% while maximizing employment, indicating a trade-off may be necessary [6] Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.2% in December, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline, despite positive signals in equity markets and building permits [7] - The Conference Board forecasts a 2.1% economic growth for the year, reflecting concerns over rising unemployment claims and reduced average weekly hours in manufacturing [7]

Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said she is prepared to keep interest on hold for longer to ensure inflation expectations are brought under control despite expressing concerns about rising unemployment https://t.co/RtjAHNrfAA ...

Australian unemployment stayed low in January and hiring remained strong, validating the Reserve Bank’s view that the economy can withstand tighter monetary policy without a sharp rise in layoffs https://t.co/yJWFqdLLV8 ...

Mark, it's great to have you. And there's, of course, some great anecdotal evidence to be had in Fed minutes, as well as the Fed's Beige Book. And I'm wondering, because it's been a while since we've had a chance to talk with you, how you describe this moment in our economy and how the president should state next week.The state of our union is what. Oh, well, fortunately, I'm not president, Joe. That's a tough one.Well, good luck with that, you know. You know, my sense of the economy is would depends on whi ...