After months of mixed signals, official data this week showed a marked slowdown in economic output and consumer spending, followed by a jarringly weak jobs report. Where things go from here is murky. https://t.co/dC6e8MK8YC ...

I want to bring in CNBC senior analyst and commentator Ron Insana. Peter Baker is New York Times chief White House correspondent and an MSNBC political analyst. Jason Ferman is former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Adviserss and a Harvard Kennedy School professor.It's good to have all of you here. So obviously Jason, that's the guy who had your old job who said basically nothing to worry about. This is quirks and seasonal stuff.Is that what we're saying. In one sense, I sort of agree with h ...

Consumer Spending - Consumer spending had been very strong but may finally be slowing down [2] - Credit card companies indicate consumer spending is at a healthy level, though not growing rapidly [2] - GDP data aligns with expectations of a consumer spending slowdown, but interpretation is difficult due to swings in net exports [4] - The industry is closely watching consumer spending, along with the labor market and inflation [5] Labor Market - Private sector job creation has decreased, potentially close to zero based on QCEW adjustment [7] - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a balance between slowing demand and supply of workers [7] - Immigration policy has slowed the flow into the labor force [8] - Wages are gradually cooling, and vacancies to unemployment ratios have been stable [9] - The labor market is solid but faces downside risks due to declining demand and supply [9] Delinquencies - Bank earnings calls indicate good credit performance [3] - High-end delinquencies are noted, but their significance is unclear [3]

Economic Overview - The economy presents a strong headline snapshot, but closer inspection reveals concerning underlying data [1][2] - GDP reading shows 3%, largely a reversal from the first quarter [1] - The economy is basically at full employment, satisfying one of the Fed's dual mandates [1] Consumer Spending & Investment - Consumer spending is described as "okay" rather than strong [1] - Investment number was down 15% [1] - Consumer-driven companies are not having robust quarters, indicating consumers are feeling the pinch [9] Labor Market - Jolt data indicates a loss of 280,000 jobs in the system [1] - There were 260,000 less hires last month [1] - 150,000 less people quit their jobs, suggesting a less optimistic view of the economy [1] Inflation & Pricing - PCE and CPI numbers were warm, slightly higher than expected, but within an acceptable range [1] - Import numbers offset each other, from -4.7% to +5% [1] - Costs will ultimately be passed down to the consumer, as companies will not decrease their profit margins [4][5] Company Performance Indicators - UPS is a good indicator of e-commerce activity and last-mile delivery performance [8][11] - Starbucks numbers reflect consumer discretionary spending [8] - Whirlpool numbers indicate consumer willingness to upgrade appliances [9]

Visa posted quarterly earnings that topped analysts' expectations as its CEO said consumer spending "remains resilient." https://t.co/FIBpDqQ9oC ...

So we have a Fed meeting and then we have a jobs report. Let's start with the Fed meeting. The decision itself, not expecting too many fireworks there.But as always, there's a lot to talk about in that press conference, Julia. Absolutely. There's a lot going on.Of course, Chair Powell will put on his best poker face and reassuring voice and tone, which he's very, very good at, and say that, look, that things are there's a lot of disruption going on so far. You know, you've got a little bit of creeping highe ...

We are getting set to close out the month with a slew of big stories to watch in the week ahead. Plenty for investors to to digest. A rate decision, key inflation data, the jobs number on Friday, of course, and the president's tariff deadline also looming on Friday.Joining us now to help make sense of it all is Jared Bernstein, chair of the Council of Economic Adviserss under the former president. Jared, great to have you back. Good morning. >> Good morning.We could we could go about 10 different directions ...

While uncertainty around Donald Trump's trade policy is curbing Canadian businesses investment and consumer spending, firms see the country's economy avoiding the worst recessionary outcomes, central bank surveys show https://t.co/7EvKOsJoyw ...

Fiscal Policy & Debt - The bill is projected to add $4 trillion to the national debt [2] - The bill could lead to deficits reaching 8% of GDP, a level almost unprecedented during peacetime without external shocks [2] - Future reconciliation packages are promised to cut the deficit, but the means to achieve this, especially without raising taxes on the wealthy, are unclear [6][7] Tax Implications & Distribution - The tax breaks in the bill may negatively impact poorer, working-class Americans while benefiting the wealthy [3] - Approximately 60% of the benefits are expected to go to individuals earning over $220,000 [14] - Certain aspects of the bill, such as no tax on tips, the child tax credit, and permanent no tax on overtime, could be supported in isolation [14] Market & Economic Impact - The bond market's reaction to the bill has been surprisingly muted [8] - There is a concern that tariff policy is slowing the economy, which, combined with massive deficit spending, could put pressure on interest rates [10] - Permanent expensing and making tax cuts permanent could be attractive to businesses and spur investment [12][13]

sentiment as as measured by uh the soft data measures has been very poor. People are really bummed out about things. Businesses are, you know, feel really uncertain about the business uh outlook and consumers are talking about how they they feel like it's harder to find a job or that they think they're, you know, jobs are at risk and they think that the economy is tanking.They think inflation is very high, etc. If you survey many people, they'll they'll still tell you that, you know, maybe we're at the lows ...