Core Viewpoint - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the recent rally in gold and silver have surprised some investors, highlighting the metals' role as safe-haven assets amid political and policy uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has increased by 84% year over year, while silver has surged by 245% since late last year, reaching record highs [2] - Gold hit another record high on Wednesday, and silver reached a multiyear high earlier in the week [6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There are two distinct narratives regarding the rally: one suggests a loss of confidence in U.S. markets, while the other points to structural issues like fiscal deficits and rising debt [2][4][5] - Powell noted that short-term inflation expectations have decreased significantly, while long-term expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% target, indicating that the case for a structural move into gold is not as strong [2][5] Group 3: Economic Implications - The "Sell America" trade reflects a short-term reaction to political shocks and policy uncertainties, linking gold's rise to a temporary loss of confidence in U.S. assets [4] - The "debasement trade" suggests that ongoing fiscal deficits and expansionary policies will erode the dollar's purchasing power, driving investors toward hard assets like gold [5]

US consumer sentiment rose for the first time in five months, bolstered by a more optimistic outlook for personal finances as inflation expectations improved https://t.co/xOMtvHisJ6 ...

Do you think right now inflation expectations are anchored. >> No. I I don't think that they I I know that the Fed wants them to be appropriately so, but I think that we lost control of inflation in recent memory and it's more under control now, maybe not all the way there.And so uh you know I think that people would be right to worry well well suppose that the policy mix that we saw um you know postcoid uh in the US economy were the policy mix that came back um I don't think President Trump would do that b ...

are getting some breaking news out of the Fed. For that, let's get to Steve Leeman. Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Carl.Yeah, timing is everything. You ask about Schmidt. We got Schmidt here, Kansas City Fed President, uh, who desented at the last meeting, saying monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and that, he says, is where it should be.He suggests in the speech he's about to give his intention to oppose additional cuts again in December. Says he mind could change, but right now, that's the way he's leaning. cu ...

The University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment index fell to 50.3 from 53.6 in October, mainly due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and economic worries. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while long-term fell to 3.6%. https://t.co/KxA6FA1o9x ...

On the one hand, inflation is still well above the 2% target. It is possible that it could be sticky, for example, if increases in administered prices were repeated or if labor cost pressures continued to be elevated. There is a risk that the inflationary shocks we have had could have effects of inflation expectations on the way wages and prices are determined in the economy.That could lead to more inflationary pressure. A scenario in the report illustrates that the path of bank rate might have to be higher ...

Economic Situation & Monetary Policy - The current economic situation is highly unusual due to conflicting inflation and unemployment risks, potentially unprecedented [1][2][3] - Supply shocks push up prices and reduce purchasing power, creating a dilemma for monetary policy [3][4] - The Fed's consensus views tariffs as a one-time price hit, but its impact on inflation expectations is uncertain [4][5][6][7] - There's a risk of losing contact with the 2% inflation target and developing an inflation psychology [9] - The industry believes the Fed needs to be more proactive in demonstrating its commitment to the inflation target, especially given political pressures [10] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs lead to a permanent increase in the price of goods, unlike temporary supply shocks [6] - The key concern is whether tariffs will fuel inflation expectations, leading to a wage-price spiral [7] - The long-term inflation impact of tariffs is uncertain, and humility is warranted [8][9] Fed & Politics - It's unprecedented for a member of the administration on leave to be a governor of the Fed [2] - It's unusual for a president to try to remove a Fed member on what many consider a pretext [2] - It's also unusual for a Fed chair to operate when the president has publicly criticized them [2]

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama said inflation expectations in the West African nation are heading in the right direction, as policy makers began a three-day policy meeting https://t.co/rouk8GhHl4 ...

Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan's preliminary September 2025 consumer sentiment index declined to 55.4 [1] - The index decreased by 4.8% month-over-month (MoM) [1] - The index decreased by 21% year-over-year (YoY) [1] Economic Conditions - Current economic conditions fell slightly to 61.2 [1] - Consumer expectations dropped more sharply to 51.8 [1] Inflation Expectations - Year-ahead inflation expectations held at 4.8% [1] - Long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.9% [1]