Core Viewpoint - Dogecoin's trading activity remained stable following the Federal Reserve's anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, with traders evaluating the implications for risk assets [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point cut to its benchmark rate, lowering the target range to 3.5%–3.75% [1] - This marks the third rate cut of the year, indicating internal disagreements among policymakers regarding further easing [1] - Some policymakers advocate for additional cuts to support a weakening labor market, while others caution that further cuts could reignite inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Dogecoin Market Activity - Dogecoin experienced steady on-chain engagement, with whale wallets accumulating approximately 480 million DOGE in recent sessions [1] - Trading activity for Dogecoin remained elevated following the launch of spot DOGE ETFs by Grayscale and Bitwise [1] - Despite the increased trading activity, ETF-related flows have not yet generated sustained directional momentum for Dogecoin [1]

🚨 ALERT: Mike McGlone warned of potential downside for risk assets, saying Bloomberg’s model places Bitcoin’s fair value near 13x gold versus about 20x now, implying a possible move toward $50,000. https://t.co/tLR2uENBSX ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum is attributed to a mechanical issue rather than fundamental factors, as argued by Fundstrat's Tom Lee [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant liquidation event on October 10 led to a severe drop in liquidity among major market makers, causing a cascading effect in the crypto market [2][4]. - A pricing glitch on an exchange caused a stablecoin to drop to $0.65, triggering auto-deleveraging that liquidated nearly two million accounts [3][4]. - The balance sheets of market makers were severely impacted, forcing them to de-risk and sell into a weakening market, resulting in a prolonged decline similar to the 2022 washout [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Tom Lee predicts that Bitcoin could bottom around $77,000 and Ethereum around $2,500, with recoveries in past cycles typically being faster than declines due to pent-up demand [5]. - Historically, crypto markets have rebounded sharply within eight weeks after selling pressure from market makers subsides [6]. - Despite current volatility, Ethereum's long-term value proposition remains strong, with Lee describing it as a "neutral, 100%-uptime blockchain" that is undervalued and gaining strength relative to Bitcoin [6].

The Fed just confirmed a 25 bps rate cut and markets are already moving. Some call it the start of a new risk cycle, others say it’s just caution in disguise.Inside CMC Topics, creators broke down what it means for crypto and risk assets 👇1/4 https://t.co/tZ0kTr91dT ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is perceived as being overly inflated regarding various risk assets, suggesting a potential correction may be necessary [1] Group 1 - The analysis indicates that there are not many surprises in the current market conditions, implying a level of predictability [1] - The statement reflects a cautious outlook from Wells Fargo, highlighting concerns about market valuations [1]

Core Insights - US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total of $101 million in net outflows on October 22, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust saw an inflow of $73.6 million [1] - Ethereum ETFs also reflected a similar trend with net outflows totaling $18.7 million [1] Market Conditions - The decline in demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is attributed to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and decreased confidence in risk assets, particularly following US President Donald Trump's tariff announcement and the US government shutdown [2] - Bitcoin is currently trading around $110,000, having struggled to reclaim the $113,000 level, with analysts indicating that the $107,000–$108,000 range is under pressure due to a lack of institutional buyers [3] Demand Dynamics - Between October 13 and 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows exceeding $1.23 billion, indicating a significant drop in demand [4] - The current UTXO realized price level of around $108,300 is seen as a critical mid-term support level, with a potential break below this level raising concerns for further downside [4] - Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin trading below both the short-term holders' cost basis of $113,100 and the 0.85 quantile of $108,600, suggesting a transition into mid-term bearish phases [5] Market Sentiment - There is an increase in demand for put options as traders hedge against further declines, with implied volatility rising and open interest near all-time highs, reflecting growing market nervousness [6] - Analysts observe that short-term rallies are met with defensive positioning rather than optimism, indicating that recovery momentum may take time to rebuild [6] Future Outlook - Analysts caution that if institutional inflows do not rebound in the coming weeks, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation phase below $110,000 [7] - However, a sustained defense of the $108,000 zone, supported by renewed ETF demand, could stabilize price action and potentially set the stage for recovery in November [7]

🇺🇸 When Donald Trump suggested renewed friction with China’s President Xi Friday, social media chatter about the topic unsurprisingly spiked across X, Reddit, Telegram, and others. In the chart below:🟦 Social volume of Trump related to Xi, China, tariffs🟥 Social dominance (share of all crypto topics) related to Xi, China, tariffs😱 As the week came to an end, the crowd saw Trump's Truth Social post as a sign of fresh economic tension, sparking a sharp wave of retail selloffs in both crypto and stock markets. ...

Mark Okada is watching the dollar for clues to what's next for risk assets https://t.co/ZQirduL4Mj ...

Market Outlook - City Research expects the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by year-end, suggesting potential near-term volatility in Q3 [2][3] - City Research anticipates the S&P 500 to reach 6,900 by the end of the first half of next year, with a bull case of 7,200 [2] - City Research suggests buying during any volatility in Q3 [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - City Research anticipates two more Fed rate cuts by the end of the year and potentially two more in the first quarter of next year due to labor market weakness [4] - A Fed easing cycle into a soft landing is considered very positive for risk assets [7] Gold Market - A Fed easing cycle, geopolitical concerns, and a potentially slowing economy are considered positive factors for gold [5] - Central banks continue to buy gold, supporting diversification [4][5] - Gold price could still see some upside from current levels [5] Labor Market and Economy - City Research anticipates unemployment to rise to approximately 48% by the end of the year [7] - The US is experiencing a growing infrastructure economy alongside a weakening labor market [6] - Stronger payroll data could negatively impact equities [6] Tariffs - The effective US tariff rate is currently around 18% [8] - The effective tariff rate could potentially increase to 20% with sectoral tariffs on pharmacy or electronics [9]

Market Trends - Dollar is potentially losing key support [1] - This inversely suggests risk assets may increase [1]