Q1 FY26 Financial Performance - Organic net sales decreased by 0.6% to $2,611 million[58] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 153 bps to 24.4%[58] - Adjusted operating margin decreased by 244 bps to 11.8%[58] - Adjusted EPS decreased by 26.4% to $0.39[58] Segment Performance - Grocery & Snacks net sales decreased by 1.0% to $1,080 million[61] - Refrigerated & Frozen net sales increased by 0.2% to $1,076 million[61] - International net sales decreased by 3.5% to $212 million[61] - Foodservice net sales increased by 0.2% to $265 million[61] Debt and Cash Flow - Net debt decreased from $8 billion to $7.6 billion[42] - Free cash flow was $(26) million, a decrease from $136 million[70] Outlook - The company reaffirms FY26 guidance for organic net sales growth of -1% to +1%[51] - The company reaffirms FY26 guidance for adjusted operating margin of approximately 11.0% to 11.5%[51] - The company reaffirms FY26 guidance for adjusted EPS of $1.70 to $1.85[51] Other Key Points - Total inflation is now expected in the low 7% range[48] - Capital expenditures are estimated at approximately $450 million for FY26[49]

Market Performance - U.S. equity markets ended positively on September 30, 2025, with all major indexes recovering from earlier losses, marking a strong finish to the month and quarter [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new record high of 46,397.89 points, with a monthly gain of 1.9% and a quarterly gain of 5.2%, achieving five consecutive months of gains [3] - The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to close at 6,688.46 points, with a 3.5% gain for September and a 7.8% increase for the third quarter, marking its fifth consecutive winning month [2] - The Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.3% to close at 22,660.01 points, with a strong September performance of 5.6% and an 11.2% surge for the third quarter, extending its winning streak to six months [2] Corporate Developments - Pfizer's shares surged 6.8% after a deal was announced for lower medication prices for Medicaid patients, along with a three-year exemption from certain tariffs [4] - Merck also saw a 6.8% increase following a positive recommendation for its RSV prevention product and a new collaboration with Variational AI [4] - CoreWeave's stock jumped 13.9% after Meta Platforms placed a new order for cloud computing services valued at up to $14.2 billion [6] - Lamb Weston reported stronger-than-expected profits, leading to a 5.6% increase in its stock price [6] Sector Movements - Shares of Paycom and Block declined following a partnership announcement between OpenAI and Stripe, which is expected to create competitive pressures in the payment sector [5] - ExxonMobil announced plans to lay off 2,000 workers as part of a restructuring effort [7] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.5 in September, its lowest since April, indicating concerns about the job market [9] - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with projections for further cuts by the end of 2025 [10] Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases are scheduled for October, including the ADP Employment Report and the Consumer Price Index [13][11]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy showed a stronger than expected rebound in Q2 with a real GDP increase of 3.8% annualized, contrasting with a 0.6% contraction in Q1 and surpassing the 3.3% forecast [3] - Consumer spending was a primary driver of this growth, although it was partially offset by declines in business investment and exports [3] Inflation Data - The Core PCE Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, consistent with forecasts, while the headline index increased by 2.7%, marking its highest level since April 2024 [2] - Monthly core prices rose by 0.2% and headline prices by 0.3%, both in line with expectations [2] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.1 in September, a decline of over 5.0% and below the forecast of 55.4, indicating growing economic concerns among households [4][5] - The deterioration in sentiment was broad-based, affecting nearly all demographic groups, except for consumers with large stock holdings [5] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 experienced its first weekly loss in almost a month, down 0.3%, despite reaching a new record high earlier in the week [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.20%, while the 2-year note finished at 3.63% [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, with additional cuts anticipated in December and 2026 [8] Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming week will feature key labor market data, including the BLS Employment Report, ADP Employment Report, and JOLTS Report, alongside ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs [10]

Core Insights - Consumer sentiment dropped 5.3% month over month in September, marking a 26% decline year to date, indicating persistent pressure on households [3][6] - The "expectations" index fell 7.5% in September and is now 29% below its December 2024 level, while the "current" index decreased by 2.1% and has seen a 20% decline this year [5][6] - High inflation expectations and stretched household budgets suggest cautious future spending intent, with essentials being prioritized over discretionary spending [8][11] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The decline in consumer sentiment reflects a broader concern about macroeconomic conditions, particularly regarding labor markets and personal finances [4][10] - 44% of respondents noted that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest level recorded in a year [6] - Personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.7% over the past year, while real disposable incomes grew only 1.9%, indicating that spending has outpaced income for eight consecutive months [6] Spending Behavior - Households are increasingly prioritizing essential expenses such as rent, groceries, childcare, and utilities, while non-essential spending is being sidelined [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding job security and income is leading consumers to delay or downsize purchases, particularly in big-ticket categories like automobiles and vacations [9][10] - The recalibration of daily spending habits in response to economic pressures is expected to continue influencing consumer behavior in the coming months [11]

Core Insights - The dollar index fell by -0.41% due to the August core PCE price index meeting expectations, potentially allowing the Fed to continue easing monetary policy [1] - The University of Michigan's US September consumer sentiment index was revised lower to a four-month low, contributing to the dollar's losses [1] Economic Indicators - US August personal spending increased by +0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.5%, marking the largest increase in five months [3] - US August personal income rose by +0.4% month-over-month, also surpassing expectations of +0.3% [3] - The August core PCE price index rose by +0.2% month-over-month and +2.9% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [3] Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's US September 1-year inflation expectations were revised lower to 4.7% from 4.8% [4] - The September 5-10 year inflation expectations were also revised downward to 3.7% from 3.9% [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [5] - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that uncertainty in the economic outlook has started to lift for US companies, indicating limited risk of further deterioration in employment and inflation [4] Currency Market Dynamics - The euro rose by +0.32% against the dollar, supported by the weaker dollar and stronger-than-expected inflation expectations from the ECB [5] - Central bank divergence is evident, with the ECB seen as nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle while the Fed is expected to cut rates approximately two more times by the end of the year [6]

Core Insights - Consumer sentiment declined by approximately 5% in September compared to August, primarily due to concerns about the job market and persistent inflation, although investors with large stock portfolios remained optimistic [2][6]. Consumer Sentiment Index - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.1 in September, which is 21% lower than the same month last year, but still above the levels of around 52 recorded in April and May [4][6]. - The decline in sentiment is attributed to rising worries about unemployment, with 65% of respondents expecting job losses, a significant increase from 35% a year ago [5]. Economic Outlook - The sentiment survey indicates a deteriorating financial outlook for consumers, as highlighted by Survey Director Joanne Hsu [5]. - Despite the decline in sentiment, consumer spending remained resilient in August, as indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures report [8]. Inflation and Income Growth - Inflation expectations slightly softened, yet 44% of respondents reported that high prices were eroding their personal savings, the highest level since last November [7]. - Slower income growth, combined with high prices, is expected to restrain consumer spending moving forward [8].

Hi Carl. Indeed, these are final reads for September on University of Michigan sentiment and inflation numbers and expectations for for some improvement. The reality is each one deteriorated on growth.55.1% from 55.4% is the headline number. It's still the weakest going back to May. If we look at the current conditions, 60.4% versus the midmon rate of 61.2%, 2 also lower, but it doesn't change the comp back to May. And if we look at expectations from 51.8% midmon to 51.7%, still the weakest since May as wel ...

Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations - Consumer sentiment has decreased slightly to 55.1%, below the expected 55.4% [2][3] - One-year inflation expectations have been revised down to 4.7% from 4.8% [2] Political Affiliation Trends - Republican consumer sentiment has declined from 96.3% in August to 92.4% in September, with current conditions dropping from 87.4% to 83.7% [5] - Democratic consumer sentiment shows a more positive trend compared to Republicans [5] Economic Data Overview - Recent economic data has generally exceeded street expectations, indicating a resilient economy [10] - Labor market indicators, such as jobless claims, have come in lower than expected, suggesting normalization [11] Market Reactions - Equity markets initially reacted positively to the PCE data, but have since experienced a pullback [15][16] - The PCE data showed core components indicating persistent inflation, with goods prices up 0.1%, services up 0.3%, food up 0.5%, energy up 0.8%, and housing up 0.4% [17] Future Outlook - The upcoming quarter-end options event is expected to increase market volumes and could lead to rotation in equity markets [19][20]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market showed positive movement with major indexes rising, particularly the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, following favorable economic reports [2][3][4] Economic Data - The UM Consumer Sentiment survey for August reported a score of 55.1, slightly below the expected 55.4 [1] - Expectations for future inflation decreased, with 1-year expectations at 4.7% (down from 4.8% expected) and 5-10 year expectations at 3.7% (down from 3.9% expected) [2] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while Personal Income increased by 0.4%, also as anticipated [3][4] Market Performance - As of the market opening, the Dow led with a gain of 0.69%, followed by the S&P 500 (+0.46%), Russell 2000 (+0.21%), and Nasdaq (+0.17%) [3] - A significant portion of equities, 55.1% (3,054), were trading in the green, while 37.2% (2,062) were declining [3]

Core Insights - The sentiment index from the monthly survey decreased to 55.1 in September, down from 58.2 in August, indicating growing concerns regarding high prices and the labor market [1] Group 1 - The decline in the sentiment index suggests a shift in consumer confidence, potentially impacting spending behavior [1] - The concerns about high prices may reflect inflationary pressures affecting the overall economy [1] - Labor market worries could indicate potential challenges in employment stability, which may further influence consumer sentiment [1]