Group 1 - New home sales in the U.S. for July exceeded market expectations, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 652,000 units, surpassing the economist forecast of 630,000 units [1] - The report indicates that demand is strongest in the western region, while the southern and midwestern regions experienced declines [1] - The reliance on price reductions and incentives is increasing, with 66% of home builders offering promotional measures, the highest level since the pandemic began [4] Group 2 - The inventory of completed new homes has reached its highest level since 2009, leading to pressure on home builders to manage stock [4] - The median sales price of new homes in July fell nearly 6% year-over-year to $403,800, marking the lowest July level since 2021 [4] - New home sales prices have been below the median price of existing homes for four consecutive months [4] Group 3 - In terms of regional performance, new home sales in the western region increased by 11.7%, while the southern and midwestern regions recorded declines [5] - The report shows that the inventory of new homes for sale, including those not started and under construction, slightly decreased to 499,000 units, but remains close to the highest level since 2007 [8]

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton reported better-than-expected Q3 fiscal 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding estimates but showing a year-over-year decline [2][6][7]. Earnings, Revenue & Margin Discussion - Adjusted earnings were $3.36 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.90 by 15.9%, but down 18% from $4.10 a year ago [6]. - Total revenues reached $9.23 billion, a 7% decrease year-over-year, yet exceeding analysts' expectations of $8.78 billion by 5.1% [7]. - The consolidated pre-tax profit margin was 14.7%, down from 18.1% a year ago [7]. Segment Details - Homebuilding revenues were $8.58 billion, down 7% year-over-year, with home sales totaling $8.56 billion, reflecting a 7.3% decline [8]. - Home closings decreased by 4% year-over-year to 23,160 homes [8]. - Financial Services revenues fell 6% to $227.8 million, while Forestar contributed $390.5 million, up from $318.4 million a year ago [10]. Balance Sheet Details - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaled $2.66 billion as of June 30, 2025, down from $4.54 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 [12]. - Total liquidity stood at $5.5 billion, with $2.9 billion available on the revolving credit facility [12]. - Debt totaled $7.2 billion, with a debt-to-total capital ratio of 23.2% [14]. Fiscal 2025 Guidance Updated - The company expects consolidated revenues between $33.7 billion and $34.2 billion, down from the previous range of $33.3 billion to $34.8 billion, compared to $36.8 billion in fiscal 2024 [15]. - Homes closed are anticipated to be between 85,000 and 85,500, slightly reduced from the previous estimate of 85,000 to 87,000 [15]. Outlook - Estimates for the stock have trended downward, indicating a potential in-line return in the coming months [19].

特朗普关心的只有鲍威尔对9月降息的立场，但市场更关注的还有，鲍威尔可能如何阐述美联储现行货 币政策框架修订计划。 近期美国就业数据疲软，使得市场降息预期陡升，美债投资者押注美联储9月至少降息25个基点，且年 内还将有一次降息。过往的年会中，鲍威尔曾发表过撼动市场的讲话内容，但此次，市场普遍预计，他 将更为"鸽派"，顺从降息预期。为此，美债收益率已全线下跌，对利率最为敏感的两年期美债收益率降 幅最大。即便如此，美国总统特朗普还是不放心，在年会召开在即时，再度"敲打"鲍威尔。 年会前再度敲打鲍威尔 当地时间周二（19日），特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth Social上写道："谁能告诉'太晚先生'鲍威尔， 他正在严重伤害房地产行业。因为他，人们无法获得抵押贷款。通货膨胀没有出现，所有迹象都表明利 率应该大幅下降。'太晚先生'简直是一场灾难！"今年以来，特朗普还曾用"愚蠢""白痴"和"傻瓜"等词形 容过鲍威尔，但在市场此前预言了"辞退鲍威尔"交易后，特朗普近期鲜少提及提前辞退鲍威尔的说法 了，而是加速任命"影子主席"的进程。 当地时间本周四晚间，杰克逊霍尔央行年会就将在美国怀俄明州小镇杰克逊霍尔拉开帷幕，其中最受瞩 ...

2025.08.20 本文字数：1653，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 后歆桐 随着市场押注美联储降息以及本周稍晚的杰克逊霍尔会议将顺应市场预期，美股投资者最近一周开始转 向此前受到冷落的、估值低廉、且会受益于利率下降的板块，包括住宅建筑类股和小盘股等，使得这些 股票强劲反弹。 据LPL Financials数据，道琼斯美国住宅建筑商精选指数(DJSHMB)已攀升至其200日和50日移动均线上 方，这是一个技术性上涨势头的信号。根据FactSet的数据，iShares美国住宅建筑业ETF (ITB)过去一周 上涨了5.6%，住宅建筑商D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI)和Lennar Corp. (LEN)等个股分别上涨了5.8%和9.2%。 小盘股罗素2000指数(RUT)过去一周同样上涨了3.1%。而同期，标普500指数上涨0.9%，纳斯达克综合 指数(COMP)上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数(DJIA)当周上涨1.7%。 虽然近期反弹强劲，但住宅建筑商股的反弹幅度仍落后于标普500指数，后者已较4月特朗普宣布关税政 策后的低点反弹了约20%。美国与几个贸易伙伴近期陆续达成贸易协议，但关税目前仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in U.S. housing stocks and small-cap stocks, driven by market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, particularly in light of the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical upward trend [3]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual stocks like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) rising by 5.8% and 9.2%, respectively [3]. - The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks also saw a 3.1% increase, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones indices rose by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.7% respectively during the same period [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, noted that housing stocks had previously suffered, dropping nearly 36% from their peak last October, making the current recovery understandable [4]. - Michael Arone, Chief Investment Strategist at State Street Investment Management, stated that traditional sectors benefiting from rate cuts have been rising as the market anticipates a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed [4][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to adopt a dovish stance in his upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, aligning with market expectations for rate cuts [5]. - There is speculation about the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September, although a more gradual approach of 25 basis points is considered more likely by most market participants [5]. Group 4: Investment Moves - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, indicating confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 5: Industry Challenges - Despite the recent strong rebound, housing stocks are still lagging behind the S&P 500 index, which has rebounded about 20% since April [8]. - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant due to record-high home prices, supply imbalances, and elevated mortgage rates, which hinder home buying activity [8][9]. - The current market conditions have led builders to offer temporary rate buy-downs to stimulate sales, with starting rates sometimes as low as 3.99% [9].

标普综合房屋建筑商指数上涨1.5%，创2024年12月11日以来的收盘最高点，此前数据显示，美国7月份 房屋开工量升至五个月高点，此前预计7月份房屋开工量将下降；之前的数据也被上调。个股中，家得 宝收涨3.17%，Lennar涨2.15%，LGI Homes涨1.88%，霍顿房屋涨1.79%，KB Home涨1.72%， PulteGroup涨1.68%，世纪社区涨1.44%，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦B类股涨1.42%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent market trends indicate a shift towards undervalued sectors, particularly residential construction stocks and small-cap stocks, as investors anticipate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index (DJSHMB) has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling a technical uptrend [1] - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual stocks like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) rising by 5.8% and 9.2%, respectively [1] - The Russell 2000 index rose by 3.1% in the same period, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones indices increased by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.7%, respectively [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - Adam Turnquist from LPL Financial noted that residential builders had previously dropped nearly 36% from their peak last October, making the current recovery understandable [2] - Michael Arone from State Street Investment Management stated that sectors traditionally benefiting from rate cuts have been rising due to market expectations of a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed [2] - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has recently invested approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the recent rebound, residential construction stocks are still lagging behind the S&P 500, which has rebounded about 20% since the low point following the announcement of tariffs in April [4] - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant due to record-high home prices, supply imbalances, and elevated mortgage rates, which hinder home buying and selling [4] - Turnquist emphasized that the current state of the real estate market is characterized by stagnation, with homeowners only selling under dire circumstances [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Grant from BNY Wealth anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, one in September and another in December, with inflation expected to remain moderate [3][6] - Upcoming economic data releases, including new housing starts and existing home sales, will be crucial in determining the continued performance of interest-sensitive sectors [6]

2025.08.19 本文字数：1827，阅读时长大约3分钟 据FactSet数据，过去一周，iShares美国住宅建筑ETF上涨 5.6%，几乎是大盘涨幅的4倍。值得一提的 是，"股神"巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司上周提交的13F监管文件显示，在继续减持美银的同时， 公司新购入了约2亿美元的建筑商D.R. Horton股票，并增持了另一家建筑企业Lennar的股份，这也被外 界视为巴菲特开始押注美联储降息的信号。 自特朗普挑起关税战导致4月股市低谷、标普500指数暴跌近20%以来，房屋建筑商的整体表现落后于大 盘。目前美国关税处于几十年来的最高水平，但已与多个贸易伙伴达成了贸易协定。不过，对于通胀在 物价中长期扎根的担忧依然存在。这也让美国整体房地产市场基本停滞不前，创纪录的房价、供应失衡 以及数年来的高抵押贷款利率，抑制了家庭买卖房屋的能力。 周一公布的数据显示，衡量美国房屋建筑商信心的一项指标——全美住宅建筑商协会（NAHB）住房市 场指数本月意外下降至32，回落至2022年12月以来的最低水平。超过三分之一的住宅建筑商降价销售， 约三分之二的建筑商提供某种形式的优惠，以吸引因抵押贷款利率仍高企和经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett is signaling a clear investment strategy by directing funds towards the interest-rate-sensitive U.S. residential construction industry, indicating a potential bullish outlook on the housing market as interest rates are expected to decline [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Berkshire Hathaway has newly established a position in D.R. Horton, one of the largest residential builders in the U.S., and increased its stake in Lennar, reflecting confidence in the housing sector [3][5]. - D.R. Horton’s stock has risen 19% year-to-date, outperforming its peer Toll Brothers, which increased by 4%, and Lennar, which has seen a 3% decline [5]. Group 2: Market Trends - The housing sector is showing signs of strength, with various companies in the industry experiencing upward momentum, suggesting a reassessment of this long-suppressed sector by investors [3][5]. - Taylor Morrison Home is highlighted as a strong performer, with its stock only 10% off its 52-week high and showing consistent buying interest over the past 10 weeks [8]. Group 3: Potential Stocks in the Supply Chain - Masco, a supplier of building products and equipment, is identified as a potential stock to watch, having increased by 13% in the past month despite a modest 1% rise year-to-date [11]. - Sherwin-Williams, a major player in the paint industry, has seen its stock rise 7% year-to-date and has recently broken through a significant technical level, indicating potential for further gains [14].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett is signaling a clear investment strategy by directing funds into the U.S. residential construction sector, which is highly sensitive to interest rates, indicating a potential bullish outlook for the housing market [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Berkshire Hathaway has newly established a position in D.R. Horton, one of the largest residential builders in the U.S., and increased its stake in Lennar, reflecting confidence in the housing sector [2]. - The latest 13F filing from Berkshire serves as direct evidence of its positive outlook on the housing market [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - D.R. Horton’s stock has risen 19% year-to-date, outperforming peers like Toll Brothers (4% increase) and Lennar (3% decrease) [3]. - Technical analysis indicates that D.R. Horton has broken through a key resistance level at $150, suggesting potential to reach $200 by year-end [3]. Group 3: Other Builders - Taylor Morrison Home has shown strong performance, being the only major builder whose stock is less than 10% off its 52-week high, with a recent breakout at $68.33 indicating a bullish trend [5]. - Analysts predict Taylor Morrison Home could reach $75 by the end of Q4 and potentially $100 by early 2026 [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain Opportunities - Masco, a supplier of building products and equipment, is identified as a potential stock to watch, with a recent 13% increase in the past month despite a year-to-date gain of only 1% [9]. - Technical indicators suggest Masco could target $85 in the early fourth quarter following a breakout above $70 [9]. Group 5: Related Companies - Sherwin-Williams, a major player in the paint industry, has seen its stock rise 7% year-to-date, with a significant technical breakout occurring at around $350 [10][11]. - Analysts expect Sherwin-Williams to reach the $400 mark by year-end, supported by a long-term bullish technical pattern [13].