Group 1 - The recent sell-off in metals, particularly gold, has raised questions about the sustainability of the previous rally, with significant drops observed, including a more than 5% decline in gold prices [1][2] - There is a focus on potential buying opportunities as investors, especially in China, are expected to start buying the dip in metals like gold, silver, and copper [2][3] - Trading activity in copper has reached unprecedented levels, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange experiencing its busiest month on record, indicating strong market engagement despite recent sell-offs [4] Group 2 - Long-term investment sentiment remains bullish for copper, driven by its critical role in the energy transition and electrification, despite short-term demand headwinds [5]

Core Thesis - Ivanhoe Electric Inc. (IE) is positioned as a strategic supplier in the U.S. copper supply chain, driven by increasing demand from electrification, AI data centers, and renewable energy [2] Company Overview - Ivanhoe Electric Inc. is a U.S.-based mineral exploration and development company focused on high-margin critical metals, primarily copper, with additional exposure to gold and silver [2] - The company was founded by mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland and utilizes a technology-driven approach, particularly its proprietary Typhoon™ geophysical surveying system [2] Project Highlights - The flagship Santa Cruz Copper Project in Arizona is expected to produce approximately 72,000 tons per year at low net cash costs, generating a net present value (NPV) of $1.4 billion at $4.25 copper and up to $2.4 billion at current prices, with a 34% internal rate of return (IRR) [3] - The company is advancing toward construction, benefiting from private land ownership that reduces permitting friction [3] - Additional exploration potential exists at Tintic in Utah, Hog Heaven in Montana, and through a joint venture with Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia [3] Financial Position - Ivanhoe Electric is well-capitalized with a $150 million equity raise, a $200 million credit facility, and potential access to up to $825 million of EXIM Bank support, which limits near-term dilution risk [4] - Current valuation primarily reflects the Santa Cruz project, while the Typhoon technology offers a potential second pillar of value, validated through partnerships with Ma'aden and BHP [4] Market Context - The company operates in a market characterized by tightening copper supply, with strong institutional backing and government support, presenting asymmetric upside potential [5] - The focus on technology-driven discovery and U.S.-based copper supply aligns with broader industry trends [6]

Group 1 - Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (NASDAQ:STRL) is recognized as a high-potential stock, with Cantor Fitzgerald initiating coverage with an "Overweight" rating and a price target of $413, driven by a multi-year investment cycle in the Engineering & Construction sector [1][2] - The sector is experiencing increased utility capital expenditures, leading to record backlogs, which provide strong near-term revenue visibility and a sustainable long-term project pipeline [2] - Sterling Infrastructure has transformed its portfolio towards higher-margin, mission-critical markets, including semiconductors, data centers, and advanced manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The acquisition of CEC by Sterling Infrastructure enhances its integrated site development and electrical capabilities, broadening project scope, improving sequencing, and aiding in margin synergies [3] - The company is involved in providing e-infrastructure, transportation, and building solutions, positioning itself strategically within the industry [3]

Core Insights - Harrison Street Asset Management (HSAM) has launched its first ETF, the Harrison Street Infrastructure Active ETF (Ticker: NFRX), aimed at providing investors with exposure to global listed infrastructure companies [1][2][3] Company Overview - HSAM is a leading global alternative investment management firm with over $108 billion in assets under management, specializing in real asset strategies [1][8] - The firm has a long-term track record in infrastructure investing, managing approximately $30 billion in assets across various infrastructure strategies [7] ETF Details - The NFRX ETF focuses on global listed infrastructure companies that provide essential services, particularly in the utilities, midstream energy, digital, and transportation sectors [2][6] - The ETF is designed to cater to wealth managers and private wealth investors seeking portfolio diversification and exposure to growth potential, income generation, and low volatility [5][6] Management Team - The ETF will be managed by HSAM's private wealth division, with a team that includes Robert Becker, Hasan Goncu, and Casey Frazier, all of whom have extensive experience in infrastructure investment [4][5] Market Outlook - The firm believes that infrastructure fundamentals are currently very attractive due to a global need for infrastructure development and long-term growth trends such as AI, digitization, and electrification [6]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant price increases, reaching an all-time high of $14,268 per metric ton, amidst a broader market selloff, which may complicate a potential $200 billion merger between Rio Tinto Plc and Glencore Plc [1] Group 1: Copper Price Drivers - A weaker U.S. dollar, speculative momentum, and the increasing demand for copper in technology transitions are driving the price surge [2] - The dollar's decline has amplified gains across metals, while sectors like electrification, AI, defense spending, and data center expansion are heavily reliant on copper [2] Group 2: Structural Issues in Copper Supply - The surge in copper prices is now more about future scarcity rather than immediate demand, due to prolonged underinvestment, declining ore grades, and regulatory constraints affecting new mine supply [3] - Glencore reported an 11% decrease in copper output in 2025, totaling 851,600 tons, attributed to weaker ore grades and operational constraints [4] - For 2026, Glencore anticipates copper output between 810,000 to 870,000 tons, significantly lower than previous forecasts, due to issues at the Collahuasi mine in Chile [5] Group 3: Implications for the Merger - The rising copper prices do not guarantee immediate production growth, complicating the rationale for the potential merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore, as copper is a valuable asset but not easily expandable [6] Group 4: Market Volatility - Extreme copper prices are leading to heightened market volatility, with physical demand, especially in China, showing signs of strain [7] - The volatility is creating a narrower market participation, which could self-reinforce as smaller volume increases the potential for further volatility [8] - The Global X Copper Miners ETF has increased by 31.26% year-to-date, while Rio Tinto shares have seen a slight decline of 2.61% in premarket trading [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported revenue of $10.4 billion, adjusted operating income of just over $1 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $10.79 [8][20] - In Q4 2025, consolidated sales were nearly $2.7 billion, an increase of $91 million, or 3.5% from the same quarter last year, with an adjusted operating income margin of 8.4% [19][24] - Adjusted EPS for Q4 was $2.26, contributing to a full-year adjusted EPS of $10.79, slightly above the midpoint of guidance [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The access segment achieved Q4 sales of $1.2 billion, roughly equal to last year, with an adjusted operating income margin of 8.8% [22][11] - The vocational segment reported Q4 sales of $922 million, with an adjusted operating income margin of 16.2%, reflecting improved pricing [23][14] - The transport segment saw sales increase to $567 million in Q4, with delivery vehicle revenue growing by 13% sequentially [23][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in the access segment driven by non-residential construction, although some sectors remain soft [12][11] - The vocational segment's backlog of over $6.6 billion provides visibility for future revenue, with expectations for continued growth in fire apparatus and airport products [16][14] - The transport segment is expected to grow with increased NGDV shipments and new defense contracts, although defense vehicle revenue is anticipated to be lower in 2026 [17][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovation, showcasing technologies at CES that include robotics, AI, and electrification to enhance safety and productivity [4][6] - Strategic investments are being made to improve production throughput and reduce lead times, with a capital investment of about $150 million planned [14][9] - The company aims to achieve an adjusted EPS range of $18-$22 per share by 2028, supported by strong long-term growth opportunities [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a continuation of recent economic conditions, with expected lower capital investments from industrial customers in 2026 [10][25] - The company expects Q1 2026 to be the lowest quarter of the year due to seasonal factors and the impact of pricing actions in the access segment [25][26] - Management remains optimistic about the second half of 2026, expecting improved performance across segments as economic conditions stabilize [26][29] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $200 million in capital expenditures and expects free cash flow of approximately $550-$650 million [27] - A quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share was announced, reflecting confidence in long-term cash flow generation [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Access guidance and disconnect with competitors - Management acknowledged a balanced approach to 2026, noting strong demand from mega projects but pressure in private non-residential construction [33][36] Question: Transport margins and pricing dynamics - Management indicated that transport margins are expected to improve in the second half of 2026, with pricing for new contracts anticipated to enhance margins [40][41] Question: Telematics data and market health - Management reported healthy utilization rates in both U.S. and European markets, with a strong used equipment market [46][48] Question: First Quarter versus Fourth Quarter earnings acceleration - Management expects Q1 2026 earnings to be about half of last year due to lower sales in the access segment and adverse price costs [50][51] Question: Access segment ordering dynamics - Management noted that strong sales in Q4 were influenced by pricing pull forward, and they expect normalization in 2026 [70][71] Question: NGDV revenue expectations - Management confirmed that they are on track to meet production milestones for NGDV, with expectations for increased revenue in the second half of 2026 [62][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported revenue of $10.4 billion, adjusted operating income of just over $1 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $10.79 [8][9] - In Q4 2025, consolidated sales were nearly $2.7 billion, an increase of $91 million, or 3.5% from the same quarter last year [18] - Adjusted operating income for Q4 was $226 million, down about $20 million from the prior year, leading to an adjusted operating margin of 8.4%, down 100 basis points from last year [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The access segment achieved Q4 revenue of $1.2 billion, roughly equal to last year, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 [11] - The vocational segment delivered full-year revenue of more than $3.7 billion, up nearly 13%, with an adjusted operating income margin of 15.8% [13] - The transport segment saw sales increase to $567 million in Q4, with delivery vehicle revenue growing by 13% sequentially compared to Q3 2025 [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that while there is underlying strength in data centers and infrastructure, many other construction sectors remain soft, leading to expectations of revenue decline in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025 [12] - The backlog for the access segment is $1.3 billion, which is considered reasonable in the current environment [11] - The vocational segment backlog exceeds $6.6 billion, providing excellent visibility for future revenue [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company showcased its vision for the future at CES, focusing on robotics, autonomy, AI, connectivity, and electrification [4][5] - The strategy includes shifting from providing equipment that enables jobs at height to offering equipment that executes jobs autonomously [5] - The company plans to continue investing in innovation and expanding U.S. manufacturing while maintaining a strong focus on long-term profitable growth [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a continuation of recent economic conditions, with expected lower capital investments from industrial customers, particularly in access equipment and refuse businesses [10] - The outlook for 2026 includes an estimated adjusted EPS in the range of $11.50, reflecting strong performance in the vocational segment but weaker market conditions in the access segment [10][24] - Management expressed confidence in long-term growth opportunities driven by innovative products and strong business fundamentals [27] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share, reflecting confidence in long-term cash flow generation [26] - Share repurchases in 2025 totaled $278 million, more than double the prior year, benefiting adjusted EPS in Q4 by $0.06 compared to Q4 2024 [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Access guidance and disconnect with competitors - Management acknowledged a balanced approach to 2026, noting strong demand from mega projects but pressure in private non-residential construction [31][32] Question: Transport margins and pricing - Management indicated that transport margins are expected to improve as new pricing contracts are implemented and production increases [33] Question: Telematics data and equipment health - Management reported healthy utilization rates for equipment in both the U.S. and European markets, with a strong used market [34] Question: First Quarter versus Fourth Quarter earnings - Management expects Q1 adjusted EPS to be about half of last year, primarily due to lower sales in the access segment [36] Question: Pricing and cost dynamics - Management discussed ongoing cost reduction initiatives and the impact of tariffs on pricing strategies for 2026 [48][49] Question: Vocational segment backlog and revenue expectations - Management confirmed a healthy backlog in the vocational segment, particularly in fire and airport products, despite some pressure in refuse and recycling [50][51]

Core Insights - Copper prices have surged to record highs, with futures up 10% recently, exceeding $13,000 per ton, driven by supply chain disruptions, trade policy, and increasing demand [1] - Global copper demand is projected to rise from 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040, leading to a potential 10 million-ton shortfall without significant supply expansions [2] - Speculation and preemptive trading may have inflated copper prices, with analysts suggesting that current levels may not reflect market realities [3] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The copper market has faced significant supply shocks, including earthquakes and flooding affecting major mines, which have contributed to supply constraints [6][7] - U.S. tariff risks have influenced trading behavior, with traders moving copper into American channels to avoid duties, impacting supply availability in Europe and Asia [5] - The initial announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government led to a temporary price increase, although the tariffs were later clarified to apply only to semi-finished products [4][5]

3QFY26 Investor Presentation Forward-looking statements This presentation and the accompanying oral remarks contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward- looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements other than statements of ...

Core Insights - The copper industry is experiencing a significant shift away from traditional cyclical patterns, with exploration and discovery of new deposits declining over decades [1][2] - Major copper discoveries are becoming rarer and smaller, with the industry relying on existing deposits rather than finding new significant sources [2][4] - The structural issues in the copper supply chain are compounded by various disruptions, leading to fragile supply conditions [5][7] Industry Trends - Exploration budgets have increased post-2020, but the results have not improved, indicating a stagnation in finding new, impactful copper deposits [2][4] - Companies are focusing on expanding existing operations rather than exploring new sites, which leads to increased costs and declining ore grades [3][4] - Codelco, the largest copper producer, exemplifies the trend of needing substantial capital expenditures just to maintain current production levels [4] Supply Chain Challenges - In 2025, approximately 550,000 tons of copper production are expected to be lost due to various disruptions, including labor disputes and geotechnical issues [5] - The copper supply chain is fragile, with little margin for error, as disruptions are not driven by demand but by operational challenges [5][7] - Regulatory hurdles are significant, with many promising deposits still not in production due to lengthy approval processes [7] Price Dynamics - The relationship between copper and silver supply is critical, as delays in copper projects can adversely affect silver production, which often comes as a byproduct [7][8] - The spot price of silver has increased by over 270% in the last year, reflecting the interconnected challenges within the metals market [8] - The Global X Copper Miners ETF has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.75%, indicating market interest despite underlying supply issues [9]