Core Viewpoint - The potential for a small-cap rally is supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and a positive earnings cycle, which could benefit the Calamos Timpani Small Cap Growth fund [1] Group 1 - Fed rate cuts are expected to create a favorable environment for small-cap stocks [1] - A positive earnings cycle is emerging, which may further enhance the performance of small-cap companies [1] - The Calamos Timpani Small Cap Growth fund is positioned to take advantage of these market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The market is currently optimistic about the impact of potential rate cuts by the Fed, with a nearly 100% chance priced in for a 25 basis-point cut at the end of the month, driven by a weak August jobs report [2][5] - Some experts warn that rate cuts could inflate a stock bubble and create new economic challenges, suggesting that the timing of such cuts may not be appropriate given current market conditions [5][6][7] - Concerns are raised that a rate cut could signal underlying issues in the economy, potentially leading to fears of a recession and a subsequent stock market correction [8] Group 2 - Ruchir Sharma, chairman of Rockefeller International, has highlighted the risks of a historic bubble in the stock market, exacerbated by the current "AI mania" and the anticipated easing of monetary policy [6][7] - Sharma argues that recent signs of weakness in the job market are minor and that higher inflation expectations appear to be entrenched, questioning the necessity of rate cuts at this time [7] - The potential for rate cuts to act as "rocket fuel" for already high stock valuations raises concerns about market sustainability and the possibility of a correction [6][8]

Morning Brief host Allie Canal breaks down the latest market news for September 5, 2025. The August jobs report was weaker than Wall Street had been expecting. The US added 22,000 jobs in the month compared to the 75,000 estimate. We look at what this report is signaling about the labor market, Fed rate cuts, and markets. Elon Musk's new performance-based pay package could potentially be worth $1 trillion. Allie breaks down the details. For more videos of Morning Brief, please visit: https://finance.yahoo.c ...

Welcome to CNBC. com. I'm Frank Holland, anchor of Worldwide Exchange.We're looking at the ETF market today. Net inflows for the year according to Vetify, have reached $795 billion. Joining me to discuss investor sentiment for ETFs and also uh to share a few top picks.I'm joined by Tyler Rosen, Coen and Steer, senior vice president, portfolio manager. Tyler, thank you for joining us. >> Thanks so much for having me this morning.I want to start off just talking about the fact that the ETF market net inflows ...

Market Drivers for Gold - Gold's price surge is attributed to anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global bond market trends, and central bank activity [1][2] - Three simultaneous factors influence gold: questions surrounding Fed independence and the dollar's future amid rising crypto interest; uncertainty about interest rate paths with potential cuts; and fiscal concerns [3] - A significant battle looms in the Supreme Court regarding the validity of President Trump's tariffs, impacting the budget deficit [4] Investment Strategies - A range of instruments can be used to access gold, including ETFs, gold equities, and alternatives like silver [5] - Platinum and palladium markets have rallied in tandem with gold, presenting potential investment opportunities [6] Metals Market Outlook - Potential inflation across the entire metals complex is anticipated [6] - The industrial metals complex is expected to perform strongly into 2026 and beyond [6]

Markets may be reacting to the data but maybe to the idea of a new Fed board on the way with an 88% that is 89% higher than it was before. Probability of a first cut in September 48% for a second cut in October. So kind of toying with maybe it happens in October more sure of the with the 85% it happens in December.The result of the data was to boost the CNBC Moody's rapid update tracking forecast for the third quarter of 3.3%. pretty healthy, showing the economy and inflation accelerating amid curiously cal ...

Labor Market & Inflation - The labor market is slowing down, potentially due to headwinds from tariffs and trade wars [2][7] - PCE inflation is at 29%, the highest level since February, while the Fed's target is 2% [3] - Inflation expectations one year out are predicting 34%, significantly higher than the 2% target [9] - A quarter of a million less jobs than previously expected in May and June [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to focus on the weaker labor market (suggesting rate cuts) or rising inflation (suggesting rate hikes) [4] - Chris Waller suggests focusing on the labor market [4] - The market is pricing in more rate cuts than the Fed may be able to deliver due to persistent inflation [8][10] - GDP on the second read came in at 33% [5] Market Dynamics - The stock market's performance is largely driven by the AI story and the "Magnificent 7," which constitute 40% of the index [11][12] - Nvidia alone accounts for 8% of the S&P 500, an unprecedented concentration for a single stock in the last 50 years [12][13] - The bond market narrative is focused on inflation and the labor market, presenting an inconsistent picture compared to the stock market [13] - The yield curve is steepening, partly due to inflation and fiscal challenges, raising concerns that the Fed might accept permanently higher inflation [9][13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the US rates market and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, particularly in light of fiscal and trade uncertainties being reduced and labor market risks increasing [2][3]. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: - A total of 75 basis points (bp) of Fed cuts are expected through early 2026, bringing the fed funds rate to a nominal neutral level of 3.5-3.75% [2]. - Current pricing for a September cut is approximately 22bp, which is considered fair based on recent remarks from Chair Powell and upcoming employment and inflation data [2]. 2. **Inflation and Economic Growth**: - Higher tariffs and lower immigration are seen as negative supply shocks, leading to higher inflation and slower growth, but not a recession [3]. - Spot inflation is projected to rise to 3.5%, influenced by tariffs, a weakening dollar, and a potentially dovish Fed [9]. 3. **Yield Curve Dynamics**: - A hawkish Fed outlook is expected to flatten the yield curve, but higher term premia may steepen forward curves [4]. - Political pressure for easier Fed policy could lead to a twist-steepening in spot curves, with long-end yields absorbing inflation and fiscal risks [4]. 4. **Treasury Issuance**: - Anticipated increases in nominal coupon sizes starting in May 2026, with net coupon issuance expected to reach $1.6-1.8 trillion per year over the next several years [11]. 5. **Quantitative Tightening (QT)**: - QT is expected to conclude by the end of Q1 2026, with MBS principal payments likely reinvested into short-dated Treasuries at a pace of $15-20 billion per month [12]. 6. **Swap Spreads**: - Modest widening in medium and long-end SOFR swap spreads is expected, with a steeper spread curve anticipated [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Funding Markets**: - Fed ONRRP balances are expected to fall to $0-30 billion by the end of Q3, with SOFR potentially moving above IORB due to higher opportunity costs for banks [10]. - **Regulatory Reforms**: - Regulatory reforms are seen as a potential tailwind for Treasury demand, with shifts in Treasury issuance likely to ease pressure on longer-term yields [8]. - **Market Risks**: - Key risks to the investment thesis include labor market slowdowns, debt-management policies, and regulatory measures to bolster domestic demand for USTs [3]. - **Analyst Certification**: - The views expressed in the report reflect the personal views of the lead analysts, with no compensation received for specific recommendations [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the US rates market and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks.

🇺🇸 NEW: Morgan Stanley has revised its outlook, predicting 25 bps Fed rate cuts in both September and December 2025. https://t.co/y2hwd4bfm3 ...

JUST IN: Traders now fully pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2025. ...