Joining me now, Malleha Bengali, founder MB Commodities Capital. Malleha, thanks so much for joining me at the desk. >> Thank you for having me here.It's a pleasure. >> So, we're talking commodities. I think a good place to start would be oil because we are seeing an uptick in oil prices trading above $61 right now.It seems like the US sanctions on Russian oil could be contributing to that. Uh how significant are those sanctions and where can oil go from here. >> That's a great question.So we think the oil ...

[Music] A 49% rally in gold over the past 12 months highlights a growing disparity with bullish equity sentiment potentially signaling market trouble ahead. This surge reflects market expectations of lower interest rates in the future as easing monetary policy often boosts gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Simultaneously, the persistent problem of stubborn inflation keeps investors wary as elevated inflation erodess bond yields and purchasing power against a backdrop of a declining deficit to GDP ratio ...

Meanwhile, some newly released minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting showing officials strongly inclined to lower interest rates with the only dispute seeming to be over how many cuts were coming this year. That's two or potentially as many as three. The Fed deciding on September 17th to lower interest rates by 25 basis points.Joining us right now to talk treasuries and rates is Kamal Shri Kumar. He's the president of Shri Kumar Global Strategies. Would you be lowering rates twice, three times l ...

Economic Conditions - The economy is currently in a state of stagnation, with consumer confidence and CEO confidence both low, indicating a lack of movement in hiring and investment decisions [1][2][7] - Unemployment rates are not expected to rise significantly due to a combination of retiring baby boomers and returning immigrants, but the overall employment situation remains stagnant [4] Employment Trends - The job market is experiencing a downward trend, with private job reports indicating a decline, and the anticipated government jobs report being unavailable due to the government shutdown [3][4] - There is a notable lack of mass layoffs, but hiring is also not occurring, leading to a frozen employment situation [2][4] Inflation and GDP - Inflation is on the rise while GDP is declining, creating a scenario referred to as stagflation, which is concerning for the overall economic outlook [5] - The need for trade deals to be finalized is emphasized as a critical factor for economic recovery and moving out of the current stagnation [5] Market Sentiment - Despite negative economic indicators, the market remains optimistic, suggesting that executives believe in a potential resolution to current issues, particularly regarding tariffs [6][8] - There is a disconnect between market valuations, which are perceived as overvalued, and the actual economic conditions, leading to uncertainty among executives [7][8] Corporate Behavior - Companies are currently holding back on investments, spending, and hiring due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and supply chain costs, which could negatively impact the economy [7][8]

Pressure is the key word there. Just how much pressure is being sustained by not just the employees who are not getting paid, but also the companies out there who could see some real impact on their business. >> Well, good morning, Dom.Yeah, you have this situation, but you also have an economy that is stuck in neutral right now. You've got the consumer confidence index which is drifting down. It took another ratchet point down on the present situation.So, people are worried about their jobs. You've got CEO ...

Bierman: The market is poised to enter a prolonged adjustment period. Between October and December, I expect there will be efforts to keep it propped up, but the setup for October points to a standard 5% pullback. That said, investors shouldn’t mistake a 5% dip for a generational buying opportunity. If the S&P 500 SPX breaks below 6,530, it could trigger automatic-sell programs, leading to a brief bounce but not a real recovery. If we fall through 6,350, that would signal the end of the current uptrend that ...

It is time now for money power politics and the reason I'm in DC today. Today the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate cut of the year. The central bank only lowered rates by a quarter point this time, but officials also signaled two more cuts are coming this year. That might sound like good news, but all of this hints at something that until now still seemed avoidable. An economic slowdown. And it comes as Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Besson calls for an independent review of the entire Fe ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed faces a stagflation-type scenario with high inflation due to supply shocks (tariffs) that may weaken the economy [2] - The Fed is considering a presumptive 25 basis point rate cut amidst concerns about inflation expectations [2] - The central bank should normally look through temporary supply shocks to inflation, but the Fed is worried about inflation expectations [3][4] - If inflation expectations rise and become anchored, it could lead to incrementally higher inflation over time [6] - Compromised central bank independence could lead to expectations of easier monetary policy, causing inflation and higher interest rates [7][8] - The Fed's concern about inflation expectations may make them reluctant to ease as fast as they normally would [5][10] Central Bank Independence - Attacks on the Fed, such as the Lisa Cook situation, and potential political influence are concerning [4][9] - The appointment of someone still working in the White House to the Fed is unprecedented [4] - Examples like Turkey and Argentina show that compromised central bank independence can lead to high interest rates and distrust in statistics [9][10]

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its implications for interest rates and market performance, particularly in the context of AI-related stocks and overall economic sentiment [3][4][6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's September meeting is critical, as it will provide insights into future interest rate cuts, with expectations of at least one cut unless retail sales data is significantly weak [3][4]. - There is speculation about potential dissent within the Fed regarding the decision to cut rates, indicating differing views on the economic outlook [4][6]. - The market is currently pricing in expectations for rate cuts, with discussions around whether a 50 basis point cut would be perceived positively or negatively [6][8]. Market Performance and Trends - Year-to-date winners like Micron, Oracle, and Tesla are highlighted, with a suggestion that instead of tax loss selling, there may be a chase for performance as year-end approaches [9][10]. - AI and AI-related stocks are expected to remain strong, driven by market sentiment and performance concerns as the year closes [10][11]. - Small-cap stocks, which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, are also anticipated to perform well if the Fed continues to signal cuts [11]. Economic Sentiment - Concerns about stagflation are mentioned, with a focus on the balance between inflation and economic growth [11][12]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is debated, with some arguing that the effects are overstated and should not lead to tighter monetary policy [13][14]. - Recent consumer sentiment data is not seen as a major concern for the market, suggesting a divergence between consumer expectations and broader economic indicators [12][14].

Market Trends - The U S appears to be facing early signs of stagflation, characterized by sluggish growth and rising prices [1] - Crypto market makers, funds, and advisors maintain a bullish outlook on $BTC [1] - Expectations are for larger gains in some altcoins [1]