All right, Torson, same question for you as we had for an earlier guest. Uh, Jay Pal said he believes it's going to come in at 2.9%. So, is this is this report actually meaningful if it comes in in line or even cooler.Is the jobs report really the big show when it comes to fed rate cuts. No, this is very, very important because as you said, the setup at the moment is that we have a slowing labor market which Chris Waller talked about yesterday in Miami. Chris Waller even had a footnote in his speech where h ...

Investors are watching developments at the Fed closely, but they're also waiting for the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE report due on Friday. Here to talk about rates and the Fed is Kamal Sri Kumar, president of Sri Kumar Global Strategies. Sri, thank you very much for being here.Good >> to be here, Leslie. >> Um, so we were just talking earlier in the hour about kind of the muted, relatively muted response in the markets relative to just uh the historical notion of of what we're seeing play ...

I remain very much agnostic on the relative likelihood and relative danger of inflation and unemployment. We're seeing probably more pressure on politicization of the Fed than any time in generations. I think it's a moment actually to tilt towards concern about maintaining uh confidence in the long-term commitment to price stability.So I would be hoping that the Fed will continue to be very much data dependent and watching very carefully what happens both on the inflation statistics and on the unemployment ...

As the specter of stagflation ripples through equity markets, investors are zeroing in on the upcoming consumer inflation report to see how close the dire economic scenario is to becoming a reality https://t.co/ZxxrkkH9g8 ...

guy, you know, look, the market showed a little sensitivity to this, right. You got a little bit of a whoosh down after the numbers. Banks actually took it on the chin.Mostly came back though. So, h how do you put it in context. The stagflation part I think is really important.I think it was about 13 or so months ago, maybe 14, almost to the day when Jerome Pal when asked about stagflation, he said, trying to be clever, I see neither the stag nor the inflation. And quite frankly, we have both now. And the f ...

Diane, h how much does this change the picture? Uh especially these revisions as Bostik was mentioning there. Um you think the Fed would have made a different decision if if these numbers had been out days ago. >> I'm not sure they would have made a different decision on the month of July, but I think this does nudge them obviously closer to September. It's still not a slam dunk. This is the hard part for the Fed. The important part for Bostic is he didn't say, "Hey, this is it. we're gonna cut now because ...

I want to bring in CNBC senior analyst and commentator Ron Insana. Peter Baker is New York Times chief White House correspondent and an MSNBC political analyst. Jason Ferman is former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Adviserss and a Harvard Kennedy School professor.It's good to have all of you here. So obviously Jason, that's the guy who had your old job who said basically nothing to worry about. This is quirks and seasonal stuff.Is that what we're saying. In one sense, I sort of agree with h ...

I just read a piece uh from uh from the op-ed that you wrote uh with Ben Bernanki. Yes. And then I followed up by saying that we had talked to Scott Besson and we had asked a similar question of of actually Elizabeth Warren recently which is if in fact Jay Powell were to be fired, ousted or otherwise pushed out, what would the market's reaction actually be.Well, I think we got a taste of that um when President Trump announced that he had shown a letter to Republicans uh that would call for Chair Powell's ou ...

Economic Outlook - The US is potentially undergoing a systemic shift, drawing comparisons to both the "Reagan moment" (positive change) and the "Jimmy Carter moment" (stagflation/recession) [1] - Market sentiment regarding the US economic trajectory has been volatile, fluctuating between an 80% probability of a "Reagan moment" at the beginning of the year, dropping below 50% by April, and currently residing around 70% [2] - There is an approximate 50/50 chance of either a positive transformation or stagflation/recession in the US [2] Market Dynamics - The US market's significant fluctuations are unusual given its mature institutions and diversified economy [2]

Economic Resilience and Uncertainty - The American economy demonstrates resilience despite uncertainty [3] - Uncertainty has settled, influencing market reactions, but the economy is still holding [3] - A Ben Franklin close (pros and cons analysis) is relevant for decision-making [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Business Impact - Companies have certainty regarding tax rates and 100% expensing of equipment [4] - Deregulation and AI are also factors influencing the economy [4] - The budget is settled, providing certainty, despite positives and negatives [6] Tariffs and Inflation - Tariff uncertainty is a key consideration [6] - There is more certainty on the tariff side compared to April [7] - Several months of tariff revenue have amounted to $25 billion to $30 billion [7] - The pricing effect of tariffs is working its way through, but the impact on consumer behavior is not yet significant [8] - Inflationary effects remain a concern [8] - Different entities along the value chain absorb different pieces of the tariff impact [9] - Lower gas prices (under $3) are a significant positive [9] Federal Reserve (The Fed) Policy - The Fed is expected to wait on interest rate adjustments due to inflation concerns [10] - The Fed aims to avoid stagflation [10] - The Fed needs to ensure that any rate adjustments do not lead to renewed inflation [10][11] - Current data does not indicate significant inflation [11]