Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of renewed S&P 500 volatility due to tariff talks and a government shutdown, leading investors to rely on secondary economic indicators for insights into the U.S. economy [1] NFIB Small Business Survey - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.0 points to 98.8 in September, marking the first decline in three months and coming in below the forecast of 100.6 [2] - Uncertainty among small business owners surged, reaching the fourth-highest level in over 51 years, despite the index remaining above its historical average for five consecutive months [2][3] - Labor quality and taxes are the top concerns for small business owners, with significant issues arising from supply chain disruptions and inflation [3] - The net percentage of owners reporting higher profits increased to its highest level in nearly four years, highlighting the sector's influence on the overall economy [3] Regional Manufacturing: Philadelphia & New York - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 36 points to -12.8, the lowest since April and below the forecast of 8.6, indicating a sharp slowdown in regional activity [4] - Conversely, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for New York increased by 19.4 points to 10.7, exceeding the forecast of -1.8, suggesting a rebound in manufacturing activity [4] - Both regions reported elevated price pressures and stronger future optimism, with firms expressing greater confidence in the next six months [4][5] NAHB Housing Market Index - Builder confidence improved, with the NAHB Housing Market Index rising five points to 37, the highest since April and above the expected reading of 33 [6] - All three components of the index—current sales, expected sales, and prospective buyer traffic—experienced their largest monthly increases since early 2024 [7] Zillow Home Value Index - U.S. home values rose for the first time in seven months in September, with the Zillow Home Value Index increasing to $363,932, a nominal rise of 0.1% from August [8] - However, inflation-adjusted home values fell for the seventeenth consecutive month, declining 0.3% from August and down 3.8% year-over-year, indicating a challenging housing market [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 posted a 1.7% increase last week, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) also rising by 1.7% [10] - The 10-year note yield fell below 4.00% for the first time in over a year, while the 2-year note reached its lowest level since September 2022 [11] Economic Data in the Week Ahead - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a sparse economic calendar, making the available reports more significant [12] - Upcoming releases include Existing Home Sales figures, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which will provide insights into consumer sentiment and economic growth [12]

Core Insights - American Express (Amex) reported significant increases in spending across key sectors, with a 14% year-over-year rise in front cabin airline ticket purchases and a 9% increase in restaurant spending in the third quarter [3] - Despite economic uncertainties, Amex's affluent customer base appears resilient, insulating the company from broader economic challenges [4][7] - Amex exceeded Wall Street expectations in various categories, reporting $421 million in card member spending, a 9% increase compared to the same quarter in 2024 [5] Financial Performance - Amex achieved a net income of $2.9 billion for the quarter, marking a 16% increase over the same quarter in 2024 [6] - Total revenue for the quarter reached $18.43 billion, reflecting an 11% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is encouraging corporate clients to utilize their business cards more frequently for expenses, as a proactive measure against potential economic downturns [6] - Analysts from Jefferies noted that the momentum in Amex's performance was supported by better-than-expected spending volume [5]

From @WSJopinion: Shutdowns let Congress run an experiment it would ordinarily never attempt: Close the whole thing down and see what breaks, writes Daniel Huff https://t.co/sTFs1EYvKH ...

Economic Sentiment - Americans' views on the economy have turned more negative in the third quarter, with deepening concerns about jobs and inflation impacting overall sentiment [5][6] - The percentage of Americans optimistic about the economy has risen to 24% from 17%, while those pessimistic about the economy increased to 57% from 40% [9] Presidential Approval Ratings - President Trump's overall approval rating dropped to 44% from 46%, with economic approval falling more significantly by three points to 42% [6][7] - The president's economic approval has averaged a net minus 11 in the three surveys conducted during his second term, contrasting with a plus five in his first term [7] Public Blame for Economic Issues - A majority of 53% of the public blames congressional Republicans for the potential economic fallout from the shutdown, compared to 37% blaming congressional Democrats [10] - The survey indicates that independents are leaning negatively towards the president, with approval ratings showing a minus 20 to minus 30 range [11] Economic Data and Perception - Despite overall economic data showing all-time highs, average Americans express dissatisfaction regarding jobs, inflation, and tariffs [12][15] - The sentiment regarding the labor market is perceived to be weaker than anticipated, with discussions around unemployment rates suggesting a potential rise to 5% if immigration levels remain low [13][14] Tariffs and Economic Transition - The president's handling of tariffs has turned substantially negative, with a noted increase in costs attributed to tariffs impacting public sentiment [8][16] - The government surplus numbers have shown fluctuations, with tariff revenues contributing to some of the changes observed [16]

ETF Market Trends & Inflows - ETF net inflows have topped $1 trillion for the second consecutive year and are on pace for a new record year [1][2] - The growth is attributed to transparency, liquidity, tax efficiency, and innovation within the ETF wrapper, including options-based strategies [3][6] - Demand for growth-type exposure, particularly in AI and innovation, is driving inflows [5] - Actively managed ETFs are attracting more investors, accounting for approximately 37% of inflows compared to 26% in 2024, due to the accessibility of sophisticated strategies [13] Top ETF Inflows & Market Sentiment - Top inflows this week were into BBEU (a large-cap European stock ETF), GLD (gold ETF), and BNDX (Vanguard Total Bond ETF) [7] - The shift towards European equities and bonds may be due to tariff concerns and government shutdown fears, prompting investors to seek safer, more stable markets and fixed income exposure [8][9] ETF Innovation & Investment Strategies - Sophisticated options-based approaches within ETFs are giving investors access to solutions they haven't had historically [4][6] - Horizon's "Why Not" digital frontier ETF offers a one-stop-shop solution for exposure to growth, AI, crypto, and quantum, with dynamic weightings [10][11] - Actively managed ETFs allow for layering crypto exposure on top of stock baskets using options and other approaches [15]

Five things to know ahead of the opening bell today. If you're just waking up, the markets are set to open lower. Stock futures are down pretty sharply after credit concerns for regional banks sparked selling in the United States and in Europe.The government the government shutdown here is set to continue over the weekend and another funding vote failed to pass the Senate yesterday. That chamber is adjourned until Monday at this point. President Trump holding a call with Russia's Vladimir Putin yesterday, s ...

From @WSJopinion: Shutdowns let Congress run an experiment it would ordinarily never attempt: Close the whole thing down and see what breaks, writes Daniel Huff https://t.co/ZTFvAAPzaf ...

Trump is speaking at 3pm ESTGrab your drink of choice...Wendy O (@CryptoWendyO):Trump says we are in a trade war with China.This is bearish for the market.The US government is currently shutdown.Historically since the 1980s during a government shutdown stocks do well….2025 is not real.https://t.co/KVwz3r1jM3 ...

As US shutdown starts to bite, how much could it hit economy? https://t.co/3yjBugYLas ...

Welcome to Trader Talk, where we dish out the latest Wall Street buzz to keep your portfolio sizzling. I'm Kenny Pulcari, and I'm coming to you live from the Yahoo Finance headquarters in the heart of New York City, a global hub where deals are made, fortunes are built, and the next market move is always just around the corner. Coming up, I'm going to share my thoughts on the government shutdown. And I'm going to chat with my very good friend Mark Newton. and then I'm going to share my Vutata de Verdur reci ...