Core Viewpoint - Argentina's international dollar bonds experienced volatility following mixed signals from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding financial support for President Javier Milei's government, leading to uncertainty in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Initial bond rally of approximately two cents was reversed after Bessent stated that the U.S. is "not putting money into Argentina" [2]. - The 2030 maturity bonds were trading flat after an earlier increase, reflecting market uncertainty over U.S. backing and Milei's reform agenda [3]. - Argentina's financial markets, which had previously rallied, have seen declines amid concerns over U.S. support and upcoming mid-term elections [3]. Group 2: U.S. Support and Negotiations - The U.S. is negotiating a $20 billion swap line with Argentina's central bank, indicating potential support for the country [2]. - Bessent's comments about negotiations included discussions on bond purchases in the secondary market and "profit-sharing" [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has added to the uncertainty regarding the U.S.'s plans for Argentina [4]. Group 3: Political and Economic Context - Argentina's government temporarily suspended export taxes on grains, resulting in $7 billion in sales, which provided temporary market relief but drew criticism from some U.S. Republicans [5]. - Concerns have been raised about the political implications of U.S. financial support for Argentina, particularly regarding the perception of using taxpayer money to assist foreign debt holders [5].

Bitcoin Soars Above $120K as US Government Shutdown Continues► https://t.co/lU2fw6mH1F https://t.co/lU2fw6mH1F ...

Crypto in D.C.: What's Next After Gov Shutdown https://t.co/O2JLp8sZmn ...

A good rule of thumb in shutdowns applies: if the government writes checks, it’s closed; if the government cashes checks, it’s open. https://t.co/WycDX8TG2N https://t.co/KPwoS7yhvG ...

There could be a a discussion, but this isn't the way to have a discussion. Shutting down the government and lowering the GDP. They they we have a 3.8% 8% GDP and the Democrats shut down the government that you we could we could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working Americans. ...

Infrastructure Funding & Political Retaliation - The Trump administration is pausing $18 billion in funding for infrastructure projects in New York City, including the Hudson Tunnel project and the Second Avenue subway, citing concerns about unconstitutional DEI principles [1][2] - The Energy Department will cancel another $8 billion in funding related to projects in 16 states, all of which Kla Harris carried in the 2024 election, with 14 of those states having Democratic governors [4] - Critics, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and New York Governor Kathy Hokll, accuse the Trump administration of using these funding cuts as political payback against Democratic states and New York residents [5][6] Government Shutdown & Democratic Strategy - The government shutdown is being used by the White House to target Democratic states and lay off federal workers [10] - Democrats are sticking to their strategy on the shutdown, willing to endure pain to achieve a win on healthcare, specifically Affordable Care Act subsidies [11][12] - There are concerns about how long Democrats can stay united as the shutdown continues and the pain is felt [12] Corruption Allegations & Hatch Act Violations - Congressman Aenclaus raised concerns about corruption, citing the federal government's unusual communication tactics, such as blaming radical left Democrats for the shutdown on the housing and urban development website [13] - The House oversight committee is seeking to enforce the Hatch Act, alleging violations in the government's communication about the shutdown [14]

Listen and subscribe to Stocks In Translation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcast. The US government is shut down. So what does this all mean for Wall Street? In this episode of Stocks in Translation, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins host Jared Blikre and Senior Reporter Allie Canal to discuss the current economic outlook and how it could be impacted by the government shutdown. Brusuelas also offers top insight on Federal Reserve policy, the bond market, and the rol ...

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience a modest reacceleration, supported by a strong equity market and significant investments in AI and data call centers [4][5]. - The economic data, excluding hiring metrics, has shown improvement recently, indicating a positive trend [4]. Government Shutdown Impact - A government shutdown could lead to the suspension of essential services and key economic data releases, which would create uncertainty in the markets [6][10]. - The potential impact on GDP is estimated to be a drag of one-tenth of one percent per week, manageable in the short term, but could increase significantly if the shutdown extends beyond 20 to 30 days [8][9]. - The timing of the shutdown is critical, particularly around October 12th to 18th, as it may affect the collection of important labor market data [11][12]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining market stability and preventing excessive volatility, especially in fixed income markets [33][34]. - Current discussions suggest that the Fed may be pressured to lower rates, which could pose risks for inflation in the near to medium term [35][36]. - There is a growing belief that the de facto inflation target may be moving towards 3%, reflecting current economic conditions [51][55]. Bond Market Insights - The term premium, which compensates investors for the uncertainty of future interest rates, is rising, indicating increased risk perception in the bond market [24][26]. - The bond market's response to inflation expectations suggests a disconnect between market pricing and public sentiment regarding long-term inflation risks [41][42]. AI and Investment Trends - There is a bullish outlook on AI, with expectations that it will enhance productivity and living standards over time, despite potential short-term market volatility [30][31]. - Major financial institutions are integrating AI into their investment strategies, indicating a significant shift in how investment decisions are made [30].

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Markets aren't missing the government, says @johnauthers. The shutdown's political theater is opening to shrug. (via @opinion) https://t.co/L1DQa0yfnq ...