Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but there is significant division among Fed officials regarding the necessity of this cut [2][3][9]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The more dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are likely to prevail in the upcoming decision [2]. - Analysts anticipate that the rate cut will not be unanimous, with some hawkish members likely to dissent [2][10]. - The meeting is expected to be contentious, with potential for multiple dissents, possibly the highest since September 2019 [6][10]. Group 2: Economic Implications - A divided Fed raises uncertainty for borrowers and investors, influencing the pace and direction of future rate cuts [3]. - The job market is showing signs of softening, which may justify the rate cut as a means to stimulate the economy [2][5]. - Some officials argue that lowering rates could lead to increased inflation, while others see it as necessary to prevent rising unemployment [5]. Group 3: Communication Strategy - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to balance the anticipated rate cut with a hawkish stance during the press conference [4]. - The FOMC's statement may signal a slower pace of rate cuts in 2026, potentially appeasing those reluctant to cut rates further [12][14]. - Individual projections for 2026 will be released, indicating whether officials lean towards further rate cuts and the potential frequency of such cuts [5][15].

The Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year began on Tuesday morning, Dec. 9, with the central bank scheduled to announce its final monetary policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday afternoon. Investors expect the Fed will cut rates by 0.25%, its third cut of the year, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting, with data from the CME Group showing a 90% chance the central bank will cut rates this week. Along with its final policy decision of the year, the Fed will also publish its final Summary of ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a contentious meeting that will test Chair Jerome Powell's ability to secure support for a third consecutive interest rate cut amid a divided committee and mixed economic signals [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The Fed's 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided on whether to lower borrowing costs, with inflation remaining elevated while hiring is weak and the unemployment rate has risen [2][3]. - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level in four years, and companies reportedly shed 32,000 jobs in November according to ADP [13]. Committee Dynamics - Some economists predict that three Fed officials may vote against the proposed quarter-point cut, potentially leading to the most dissenting votes in six years [3]. - The potential for greater disagreement within the committee is seen as a sign of healthy debate, although sharp splits could undermine financial market confidence [6][12]. Future Outlook - Most economists expect a "hawkish cut," where the Fed will reduce rates while signaling a pause to assess the economy's health [8][15]. - Fed officials will have up to three months of backlogged jobs and inflation data to consider before their late January meeting, which could influence future rate decisions [14].

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index rose by +0.11% amid short covering ahead of the FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 bp cut in the federal funds target range [1][3] - The unexpected rise in October JOLTS job openings to 7.670 million, a 5-month high, indicates a stronger labor market, which is a hawkish factor for Fed policy [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - President Trump plans to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as the likely candidate [2] - Hassett's nomination is viewed as bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance and support for President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and German Trade Data - The euro fell by -0.05% against the dollar, influenced by the dollar's strength and weaker-than-expected German trade news [4] - German October exports rose by +0.1% m/m, below expectations of +0.2% m/m, while imports fell by -1.2% m/m, weaker than the anticipated -0.5% m/m [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen Performance - The yen declined by +0.60% against the dollar, reaching a 2-week low due to comments from BOJ Governor Ueda regarding bond yields [6] - The stronger-than-expected US October JOLTS job openings report contributed to higher T-note yields, further pressuring the yen [6]

We recently published 10 Stocks Standing Tall Amid Market Fall; 6 Hit Record Highs. Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) is one of the best performers on Monday. Carvana soared to a new all-time high on Monday after 10 consecutive days of rally, as investors took heart from its official inclusion in the S&P 500 index. At intra-day trading, Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) jumped to its highest price of $456.97 before paring gains to end the day just up by 12.06 percent at $447.98 apiece. This followed the S&P Dow Jones Indic ...

Key Takeaways The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps.The options market implies a ~1% SPX move post-announcement.Powell's tone and 2026 rate cut expectations are the real market drivers. If there’s one economic event investors should follow, it’s the action of central banks. Legendary billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has never suffered a down year in more than 30 years on Wall Street, said it best when he said:“Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Boar ...

Core Insights - Major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, are experiencing significant price surges ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut, leading to a liquidation of short positions [1][5][6] Price Movements - Bitcoin is trading above $94,400, marking its highest price since mid-November, with a 5% increase in the last 24 hours and a 4% rise over the week [2] - Ethereum has seen an 8% daily increase, reaching $3,359, resulting in a weekly gain of over 16%, the largest among the top 10 cryptocurrencies [3] - Other altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin have also recorded daily increases of approximately 5%, 6%, and 6% respectively [3] Liquidation Events - Over $376 million in positions have been liquidated in the last day, with shorts accounting for $297 million of this total [5] - Bitcoin positions impacted by liquidations amount to about $153 million, while Ethereum accounts for $110 million [5] - The current liquidation trend is unusual as it primarily affects short positions, contrasting with previous months where long positions were more frequently liquidated [4] Market Sentiment - Traders are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before falling to $69,000, with an 80% probability assigned to this outcome [7] - The upcoming Federal Open Markets Committee meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis points rate cut, which typically benefits risk assets like cryptocurrencies [5][6]

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up by +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.22%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.03%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.19%. Stock indexes are modestly lower ahead of the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting today.  The market remains cautious about the pace of Fed easing beyond Wednesday’s decision, when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut during its final meeting of the year, with a 90% probability indicated by CME Group data [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Expectations - The Fed's final monetary policy decision will be announced on December 10, 2025, with expectations of a third rate cut this year [1]. - The Fed will also release its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2025, which includes forecasts on economic growth, inflation, and interest rates [2]. - Investors are particularly interested in any changes to the Fed's outlook for 2026, which previously indicated only one rate cut in that year following three in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Stock market reactions were muted at the market open, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.3%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.2% [4]. - Treasury yields remained steady as investors awaited the Fed's policy decision, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.14% and the 30-year yield declining to 4.78% [5]. Group 3: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is growing concern about potential dissent among Fed officials, as two members voted against the previous rate cut in October [3][11]. - At least three regional Fed presidents have expressed skepticism about the necessity of a rate cut this week, indicating possible dissent in the upcoming decision [10][12].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% this week, but Bitcoin's price is anticipated to remain around $90,000 due to traders already pricing in the cut [1][5] - Analysts predict Bitcoin will hover around the $91,000 resistance level without a decisive break following the FOMC meeting, with significant price action expected in early 2026 [2][5] - The nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair by President Trump is anticipated to influence monetary policy and market sentiment, with Hassett advocating for faster and larger interest rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 87% probability for a 0.25% rate cut, while Polymarket bettors push that probability to 95% [5] - Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced $89 million in outflows on Monday, contributing to a total loss of $177 million for December [6] - The Fed is currently facing challenges with outdated labor data due to a prolonged government shutdown, leading to a likely wait-and-see approach [7]