Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the December 9-10 policy meeting, with over 100 economists predicting this cut and futures markets indicating an 85% chance [2][3][8] - The anticipated rate cut is influenced by a cooling labor market, evidenced by weak job growth and job losses in June, alongside inflation that remains above the Fed's 2% target but shows signs of easing [3][8] - Median projections suggest two additional rate cuts by the end of 2026, targeting a federal funds rate between 3.00% and 3.25%, with future adjustments assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis [3] Group 2: Ben & Jerry's Independence from Unilever - Co-founders of Ben & Jerry's, Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield, are advocating for the brand's independence from Unilever as the latter prepares to spin off its ice cream business into a new entity, The Magnum Ice Cream Company [4][5] - The co-founders express concerns that Ben & Jerry's core values, particularly its social justice mission, are being compromised under Unilever's management [5] - Unilever aims to streamline its portfolio and boost margins through the spin-off, retaining less than 20% ownership in the new $88 billion global ice cream market entity [5] Group 3: Middle East Diplomacy - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking U.S. intervention regarding an alleged military buildup by Egypt in the Sinai Peninsula, presenting a list of violations of the 1979 Camp David Accords [6][8] - Egyptian officials have denied these claims, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has shown apathy towards a meeting with Netanyahu, with diplomatic contacts effectively frozen since late 2022 [7][8] - U.S. official Jared Kushner has advised Netanyahu on leveraging economic diplomacy and the private sector in the regional peace process, as the U.S. and Israel approach an agreement on a Gaza peace plan [9]

Bitcoin’s price trembles at $89,000 after the White House published its National Security Strategy on Friday. US President Donald Trump’s latest release ramps up the pressure on US allies to spend more on defence, echoing the American leader’s speech to the United Nations at the end of last year. “The days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over,” the National Security Strategy reads. “We count among our many allies and partners dozens of wealthy, sophisticated nations ...

Group 1: Retail Sector - Ulta Beauty (ULTA) shares surged nearly 13% after reporting better-than-expected earnings and raising its full-year forecasts, driven by resilient demand in the beauty category, increased transactions, and the acquisition of British luxury cosmetics firm Space NK [4][9] - Dollar-store operators Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) saw their shares rise about 6% following strong earnings reports, indicating traction among customers from various income levels seeking deals [7][9] Group 2: Healthcare Sector - Moderna (MRNA) stock jumped close to 9% after a long-term study in France indicated that its COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective, showing a 75% lower risk of dying from COVID-19 for vaccinated individuals compared to the unvaccinated [5][9] - Cooper Companies (COO) exceeded quarterly earnings forecasts and provided an optimistic outlook, with shares climbing around 6% following the announcement of a strategic review aimed at simplifying its business [6][9] Group 3: Media and Entertainment Sector - Netflix (NFLX) agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming business in an $83 billion deal, impacting shares of Paramount Skydance (PSKY) which fell nearly 10% as a result of the competitive bidding landscape [8][9] - Warner Bros. Discovery's stock climbed more than 6% following the acquisition announcement, while Netflix shares slipped about 3% [8][9] Group 4: Market Overview - Major U.S. equities indexes moved higher after a key inflation report came in lower than anticipated, with the S&P 500 and Dow edging 0.2% higher and the Nasdaq rising 0.3% [3][9]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.02% on Friday, recovering from early losses due to reduced liquidity demand from a rally in stocks and higher T-note yields [1] - US personal spending in September increased by +0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while personal income rose by +0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected +0.3% [3] - The University of Michigan's US December consumer sentiment index increased by +2.3 points to 53.3, exceeding expectations of 52.0 [3] Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Federal Reserve - The University of Michigan's December 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.1%, better than the expected no change at 4.5%, marking the smallest pace of increase in 11 months [4] - The markets are pricing in a 95% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [4] Group 3: Euro and Economic News - The EUR/USD fell by -0.03% on Friday, as the euro lost modest gains after the dollar's recovery, despite initial strength from positive Eurozone economic news [5] - Eurozone Q3 GDP was upwardly revised, and German October factory orders reported stronger-than-expected results, contributing to the euro's initial strength [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is poised for a weekly gain as investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut increase, influencing commodity prices and investor behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold futures are around $4,240, indicating a less than 1% increase this week, and are over $100 below the October record high [2]. - Year-to-date, gold has surged more than 60%, achieving over fifty all-time highs this year, making it a leading asset for 2025 [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs analysts maintain a bullish outlook for gold, projecting a price target of $4,900 by the end of next year [7]. Group 2: Market Influences - The expectation of a 25 basis point cut in the Federal Reserve's fund rate is pressuring the US dollar index, which in turn lifts commodity prices [2]. - As interest rates decline, gold typically rises as investors shift away from interest-yielding assets like bonds [2]. - Central banks continue to buy gold at above-average levels, contributing to sustained demand [4][6]. Group 3: Future Projections - The World Gold Council forecasts that gold prices could rise by 5% to 15% in 2026, potentially reaching up to $4,900 per troy ounce [5]. - Continued strategic buying by central banks and new investment entrants, such as insurance companies in China and pension funds in India, may further bolster gold's positive trend [6].

The Federal Reserve's decision will take center stage in the coming week, with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates after recent weak U.S. jobs data. ...

What This Means For The Economy Inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve's target, but the downtick in annual inflation in September takes some pressure off the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Friday's inflation report could pave the way for a Fed rate cut next week, which was already widely expected. The report is especially significant because the Federal Reserve uses PCE core inflation as its benchmark for whether inflation is running at its target of a 2% annual rate—it hasn't be ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates on December 18th or 19th, contingent on no significant events occurring beforehand [1][2] - There is a likelihood of an increase in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields due to the anticipated rate hike, making JGBs less attractive compared to other developed market bonds [3][4] - Concerns exist regarding the fiscal capacity in Japan deteriorating faster than in other regions, which could limit the ceiling on policy rates and contribute to unattractive yields [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is viewed as having a more significant impact on global markets compared to the BOJ, with current pricing indicating a dovish stance [7][10] - The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate increase, with a terminal rate projected at 3%, making it challenging to lower rates without substantial economic decline [8][9] - Upcoming Fed meetings are anticipated to provide new projections and insights, especially with a new Fed chair expected next year, indicating a potential shift in consensus [8][10]

Economic Indicators - Japan's household spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest rate in nearly two years in October, indicating the impact of inflation on consumer spending power [2] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 1.94%, the highest since mid-2007, with a projected rise of 13.5 basis points for the week, marking the steepest increase since March [2] Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.5%, erasing gains made earlier in the week, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell by 0.1% but was still set for a weekly gain of 0.5% [1] - A quarter-point rate hike from the Bank of Japan is now priced at 75%, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda about considering the implications of raising interest rates [4] Currency and Capital Flows - The Japanese yen remained stable at 155 per dollar, above its 10-month low of 157.9, reflecting shifting capital flows and changing market expectations [3] - Analysts noted that long-standing expectations regarding a permanently cheap yen are being challenged, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [3] Global Market Overview - In other markets, Australia's resource-heavy shares remained mostly unchanged, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index decreased by 0.5% and South Korea's shares increased by 0.7% [5] - The US dollar steadied after a nine-session decline, trading down 0.1% to 99 against major peers, and down 0.5% for the week [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for September is expected to show a 0.2% rise in the core measure, maintaining an annual rate of 2.9% [6] - The US non-farm payrolls report was not released, but jobless claims showed a significant drop, alleviating concerns about the labor market [7]

Market Performance - Market indexes were mostly flat, with the Dow down by 0.07%, S&P 500 up by 0.11%, and Nasdaq up by 0.22% [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed, gaining 0.76% after bouncing off late Tuesday lows [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Anticipation of an interest rate cut next week, expected to lower rates to between 3.50-3.75%, the first time since September 2022 [2] - Weekly Jobless Claims data was better than expected, but did not deter investor sentiment regarding the Fed's upcoming decision [2] Earnings Reports - **Ulta Beauty (ULTA)**: Reported earnings of $5.14 per share, exceeding the $4.56 consensus, with revenues of $2.9 billion surpassing the $2.72 billion expectation, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12.9% [3] - **DocuSign (DOCU)**: Earnings of $1.01 per share exceeded the expected $0.92, with revenues of $818.4 million above the $806.1 million consensus; however, stock declined due to competition from OpenAI's DocuGPT [4] - **Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE)**: Reported earnings of 62 cents per share, beating estimates by 3 cents, but revenues of $9.7 billion fell short of the $9.96 billion expectation, leading to a 7.6% drop in shares [5] Economic Indicators - The delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for September is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, up from 2.74% the previous month, with core PCE anticipated at 2.9% [6] - A significant upside surprise in PCE data could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [7]