Labor Market Analysis - The private sector's employment growth is weaker than perceived, with a significant portion of recent job growth occurring in the public sector [1] - Underlying private sector data indicates a stagnant labor market, making it susceptible to economic shifts [4] - Firms are hesitant to hire, even with strong earnings, impacting the labor market [11] - Immigration is not identified as a primary cause of labor market issues, as unemployment rates for new college graduates remain high [11] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - A potential July rate cut is under consideration, with the understanding that delaying until September may not be significantly different [13][22] - Dissent within the FOMC is viewed as healthy for policy debate and decision-making [16][17] - The Federal Reserve aims to act proactively, considering long and variable lags in monetary policy [24] Tariffs and Inflation - Economic theory suggests that one-time tariffs result in a one-time price effect, not persistent inflation, unless amplified by other mechanisms [26] - A rule of thumb suggests that a 10% tariff is typically absorbed in thirds by suppliers, firms, and consumers, resulting in a 0.3% impact on the inflation rate for a few months [29] - Continuous waves of increasing tariffs pose a greater risk to inflation than a single, uniform tariff [35] - Market-based inflation expectations are closely monitored, with less emphasis on consumer surveys, to gauge the impact of tariffs and other factors [43]

Rate Cuts ahead? Fed voices weigh in as stocks hit a record high.Get the latest on this and the rest of the news you need to start your morning with the Daybreak Europe Podcasthttps://t.co/9hk769AJ52 ...

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures pointing to a mixed open on Wall Street. Investors on edge around the future of the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. Markets recovering from the whipsaw action after President Trump denied reports that he would be firing Fed Chair Jerome Pal soon.This coming as the future path of rate cuts is at top of mind despite President Trump's calls to lower ...

$200 BILLION IN CAPITAL WILL ENTER THE MARKET IN Q4 2025 🚨If you think the current rally is great, you don’t know what’s about to come.US banking regulators have proposed changes to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio.These changes will relax capital buffer requirements for US banks.As per some estimates, this would unlock $200B+ in liquidity.It’s expected to happen by Q3 end, which is the exact timeframe for rate cuts.Imagine COVID-type liquidity injection + rate cuts happening together.The markets w ...

There was a time where a 0.2% percentage point surprise on CPI would send the markets into a tail spin because this is way above the target, isn't it. We're still above three and a half%. And I think that that's what the news is today is that we are close to this threshold of 4% which the Bank of England has cited as a level that households and businesses get a bit more sensitive to inflation.So I think what this does is it tells you that if you're going to get rate cuts, they're still going to be quite slo ...

Market & Tariff Impact - Market may be underestimating the impact of ongoing tariff disputes [1] - Average tariff for imported goods has likely increased to the mid-teens percentage range, but negotiations are ongoing [2] - Base case scenario anticipates tariffs settling around 12-13%, close to levels seen around April 9th [3] - Select international opportunities exist in EM (particularly India) due to less tariff exposure and growth, and Japan due to financials benefiting from higher rates and inflation [4] - Europe is experiencing earnings downgrades after a strong rally, suggesting a need for selectivity in international investments [5] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank expects four rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) over the next 11 months, with the first cut anticipated in the fourth quarter [6][7] - The US is currently facing dual deficits, with a budget deficit around 7% and a current account deficit around 5-6% [7] - Maintaining Fed independence is crucial to avoid foreign buyers questioning the US dollar and US dollar-denominated assets [8] - The president is expected to nominate a Fed chair in September, which will likely be the dominant narrative for the Fed in the coming months [8]

Fed Chair Nomination Context - Betting markets indicate a 34% chance that no Fed chair successor will be announced before December, while Powell's term ends in May 2026 [5] - Historically, the lead time between announcing a Fed chair successor and their assuming office is about 2 to 4 months [6] - Markets are forward-looking, so traders and investors will begin pricing in the newcomers policy leanings [7] Leading Candidates and Their Potential Impact - Christopher Waller is considered a favorite, with his remarks already impacting the 2-year Treasury yield, dropping 20 basis points after a speech [10][12] - A Waller Fed is expected to lead to lower short-term yields, a flatter yield curve, and a lighter dollar, potentially benefiting stocks and crypto [15][16] - Kevin Walsh is viewed as more hawkish, advocating for avoiding rate cuts until inflation is firmly on a sustained path back to target [21][23] - A Walsh chairmanship could lead to a stronger dollar, growth stocks down, and a scramble out of risk assets, with restrictive policy rates potentially weighing down crypto [26][27] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expects a rate cut by September and is implementing measures to keep long-term interest rates from rising, potentially creating a risk-on environment [30][36] - Kevin Hasset advocates for rate cuts to support GDP growth, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and a market-wide rally for stocks and crypto [40][41] Wild Card Candidates - David Malpass, a former World Bank president, argues the Fed is behind the curve on cutting interest rates [42][43] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has expressed support for a July rate cut if inflation stays subdued [44] Market Volatility - The announcement of the next Fed chair, or even the teasing of the decision, is expected to cause bursts of volatility [48]

And of course, if Fed share steps down, you can better believe that the person that is going to be put into that chair is going to be pretty much pro cut rates and cut rates fast. Uh, as a reminder, of course, the Fed chair is only one person. It is a governorship.Uh, there are other parts of uh of the board. So, it's not because just one person's out, but you can see how like the the chair would kind of dictate the uh the direction. Just take a look at Gary Gendzer.Regardless, this happens, there will be r ...

It looks like Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve is going to resign. Also, Day 2 of our bitcoin and altcoin rally and things are NOT SLOWING DOWN. Tangem Giveaway Post - https://x.com/NewsAsset/status/1942335948273950997 ●▬▬▬▬▬▬CRYPTO CRITICAL VIDEOS▬▬▬▬▬▬▬● 1. THE 5 RULES - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNBiZ5Bo__U 2. AVOID ALL SCAMS. SOURCE IT - https://youtube.com/live/m77Oxmh70Zc 3. DON'T FALL FOR A.I. SCAMS! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m4M0lvP5-o 4. WHY STORAGE DIVERSIFICATION? - https://www ...

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $117,000 on July 11, 2025, driven by bullish momentum in risk assets and its correlation with tech stocks like NVIDIA, which recently achieved a $4 trillion valuation [1] - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has increased by 15% this year, with a 4.3% gain in the past month, benefiting from favorable policy signals and tightening supply [2] - Bitcoin's recent performance is seen as a pressure release rather than a full-scale bull run, maintaining a tight $10,000 range over the past two months before the breakout [3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Institutional Adoption - Bitcoin's breakout coincides with Congress's "Crypto Week," where key regulations, including the GENIUS Act for a federal stablecoin framework, will be debated [4] - Positive outcomes from regulatory discussions may enhance institutional inflows into Bitcoin, with shares of Circle CRCL rising over 500% since their IPO [5] - Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is expanding, with companies like GameStop and Goldman Sachs increasing their Bitcoin ETF holdings, enhancing institutional credibility [8] Group 3: Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against inflation due to its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, which may help it retain value amid increasing fiat issuance and potential global inflation from tariffs [7] - Bitcoin has gained 26.4% this year, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which gained 7%, showcasing its strength amid market uncertainties [6] Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - Potential rate cuts later this year could favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [9][10] Group 5: Bitcoin Miners and AI Infrastructure - Bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI infrastructure, leveraging their data centers for more profitable ventures compared to traditional Bitcoin mining [12] - Companies like Bitfarms are well-positioned to meet the rising energy and space demands of AI computing, given their experience in building large facilities [13] Group 6: Investment Products for Risk-Averse Investors - New Bitcoin buffer ETFs have been launched to make Bitcoin more accessible to risk-averse investors, providing downside protection amid volatility [14][15]