Market Trends & Economic Outlook - US stock futures are treading carefully as bond yields have picked up, leading investors to scale back bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has added nearly 15 basis points in the past week, approaching 45% [5] - Traders reassess expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as price increases accelerated in June [5] - The market is closely watching President Trump's trade plans and potential tariffs on pharmaceutical companies and semiconductors, assessing their impact on inflation [6] - Bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are fading as recent data has shown signs of sticky inflation, with core prices increasing 29% in June compared to the prior year [47] - Traders now see just a 52% chance the Fed cuts rates in September, down from a 70% chance seen just a week ago [48] AI & Technology Sector - Nvidia closed at a record high, above $170 per share, with plans to sell H20 AI chips in China [7] - ASML, a supplier of computer chipmaking equipment, said it may not achieve growth in 2026 due to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical developments; shares fell more than 7% in pre-market trading [8] - The AI trade is considered to be in a 3-5 year bull market, but may be overheated in the short term [10][11] - Apple announced that it would buy rare earth magnets from MP Materials in a $500 million deal [46] Banking & Financial Performance - Bank of America reported adjusted earnings per share of 89 cents, higher than analyst expectations of 85 cents, with revenue at $265 billion [16] - Bank of America's net interest income for the second quarter came in at $1467 billion, above estimates for $146 billion [18] - Bank of America's trading revenue in the second quarter came in at $538 billion, exceeding the street's expectation of $494 billion [19] - Bank of America's investment banking revenue came in at $143 billion, slightly above estimates for $127 billion [21] Precious Metals Market - Silver has risen more than 28% this year, outperforming gold and copper [24] - Croup forecasts silver to continue to soar above $40 an ounce [24] - Central banks have been a huge determining force in their buying of gold, with over 1,000 tons bought in each of the last three years [31] - Trump's tariffs on copper threatening to be 50% on August 1st, we're seeing a lot of front running in this trade [28] Healthcare Sector - Johnson and Johnson reported second quarter adjusted EPS of $277, boosting its full-year sales outlook to a range of $932 billion to $936 billion and full-year adjusted earnings per share to a range of $1080 to $1090 [42][43] - The pharma sector is bracing for potential tariffs from President Trump [44] Impact of Tariffs - Rio Tinto said that US tariffs on its Canada-made aluminum have added $300 million in costs in the first half of this year [39] - Trump hit Canada with a 50% tariff on aluminum and auto parts in June [40]

Mining Portfolio Strategy - The firm launched a new mining-focused portfolio modeled after its concentrated alpha portfolio, holding no more than ten names and allowing up to 50% cash [2][3] - The portfolio is initially leaning heavily into gold, but may include silver or copper miners [5][6] - The firm is allocating to the portfolio gradually over the coming months, acknowledging the recent run-up in mining stocks [7][8] Gold Market Analysis - Gold represents 20% of all central bank reserve assets, surpassing the euro [3] - Gold is now a tier one asset as of July 2025, potentially leading to gold-backed currencies [3][4] - The firm believes a tremendous supercycle for miners is underway due to expanded cash flow margins [4] Stock Selection & Performance - Top holdings include Newmont, Barrick, and Agnico Eagle, with Agnico Eagle being considered the best in breed due to its management and record highs [5][6] - Newmont and Barrick have room to catch up, as they are still below their 2022 and 2021 highs, respectively [7] - Wheaton Precious Metals is highlighted as a well-run company [8] Silver & Copper Opportunities - Silver is considered to have catching up to do with gold, with the gold-silver ratio expanded to 100 [9] - First Majestic Silver is included in the portfolio with the expectation of outperformance if silver rallies [9][10] - The firm monetized a move in copper and is monitoring the potential impact of a 50% tariff on US copper imports [11][12] Copper Tariff Implications - Morgan Stanley estimates that 36% of copper demand in the United States comes from imports, highlighting potential concerns related to the proposed tariff [14] - Freeport-McMoRan is positioned to benefit due to its leading copper mining capacity in the US, particularly at its El Paso, Texas facility [12][13]

Legislation & Legal Tender - Texas Governor Abbott signs legislation [1] - Gold and silver are now legal tender for daily transactions in Texas [1]