CITI'S TAKE Materials demand in 1Q25 was mostly in line with our expectation, with stronger prints on steel and cement, and weaker on coal. As the trade war between the US and China escalates, we assess the impact from trade disruptions and potential RMB depreciation on materials. We believe the impact of tariffs has already kicked in for the battery supply chain (see note) and expect more to be felt through commodities in the coming months. This should call for more decisive policies from Chinese side to b ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Attractive" industry view for North America [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a framework of "visibility to free cash flow (FCF) vs valuation" to analyze potential durable outperformance in the current macroeconomic environment, with META, GOOGL, and UBER identified as top performers [1][10]. - The macroeconomic outlook includes muted GDP growth expectations of 0.6% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, alongside firming inflation and a steady Federal Reserve [2]. - The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of e-commerce and digital advertising, noting that e-commerce drives online advertising and vice versa, with META positioned as the most resilient in the face of tariff impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Factors - The focus is on three macro factors: business confidence, hiring trends, and consumer spending health, which are critical for driving investment and hiring decisions [2]. Tariff Exposure - The report details the estimated exposure of U.S. imports from China across various e-commerce companies, with AMZN and RVLV having around 18% exposure, while PTON and FIGS have less than 2% [3][19]. - It discusses the potential ripple effects of China tariffs on digital advertising, particularly affecting smaller businesses and 1P/3P sellers [4]. Visibility vs Valuation Framework - The report employs a quadrant analysis to assess visibility and valuation support, indicating that companies with higher visibility on earnings and cash flow are likely to receive more investor capital first [10][11]. - META and GOOGL are highlighted for their high margin and reasonable valuations, with META favored due to its audience engagement factors and innovations [13]. Company-Specific Insights - CHWY is noted for its high resilience and FCF visibility due to its autoship model, while UBER is recognized for its smaller standard deviation of FCF in 2026 [14][15]. - Companies like BKNG and DASH are also mentioned for their visibility and execution capabilities, while FIGS and PTON face more risks due to their discretionary nature and tariff impacts [16][17]. Price Target Changes - The report outlines price target adjustments for several companies, including a reduction for GOOGL from $210 to $185 and for META from $660 to $615, reflecting lowered revenue estimates due to macroeconomic pressures [39][40].

Core Insights - Earnings season is crucial for investors, with a focus on guidance due to recent tariff-induced uncertainties [1] - Notable large-cap stocks reporting this week include Progressive (PGR) and UnitedHealth (UNH), both showing strong relative performance in 2025 [1][7] UnitedHealth (UNH) Summary - UnitedHealth Group provides a comprehensive range of health benefits, leveraging data and technology through its Optum segment to enhance care delivery and health outcomes [4] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), with stable earnings estimate revisions and expected 5% EPS growth on 11% higher sales [4] - Current trading at a 19.5X forward 12-month earnings multiple, aligning with the five-year median and below the five-year high of 26.6X; PEG ratio stands at 1.6X, slightly above the five-year median of 1.4X [6] Progressive (PGR) Summary - Progressive is a leading auto and property insurer in the U.S., recognized for its direct-to-consumer model and strong underwriting performance [9] - The stock also holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), with earnings expectations rising significantly, up 27% over the last 60 days [9] - Projected to see a 27% year-over-year increase in EPS on nearly 20% higher sales, with a history of exceeding Zacks Consensus EPS estimates by an average of 18% in the last four releases [10] - Currently trading at a 17.6X forward 12-month earnings multiple, compared to a five-year median of 19.3X and a five-year high of 31.9X [10] Overall Market Context - The Q1 earnings season for 2025 is gaining momentum, with Progressive and UnitedHealth as key players [13] - Both companies are relatively insulated from tariff concerns due to their domestic operations, which is a significant advantage in the current political climate [13]

About this content About Angela Harmantas Angela Harmantas is an Editor at Proactive. She has over 15 years of experience covering the equity markets in North America, with a particular focus on junior resource stocks. Angela has reported from numerous countries around the world, including Canada, the US, Australia, Brazil, Ghana, and South Africa for leading trade publications. Previously, she worked in investor relations and led the foreign direct investment program in Canada for the Swedish government ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q4 2024 were $1,680 million, representing a 6.6% decline compared to the previous year, primarily due to a comparison against a 53-week fiscal year [7][36] - Comparable sales decreased by 3%, with a sequential improvement from Q3 and the first half of the year [8][36] - Gross margin for Q4 was 32.2%, down 110 basis points year-over-year, influenced by higher freight and distribution costs [13][37] - Net income for Q4 was $133.6 million, with diluted earnings per share of $1.89, while adjusted net income was $139 million or $1.96 per share [36][48] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The outdoor category was the best performer, with net sales growth of 2%, driven by hunting, fishing, and camping products [11] - The footwear business saw a 2% decline in net sales, with strong performances from brands like ASICS and New Balance [13] - Private brands accounted for approximately 23% of total net sales, up from 22% in the previous fiscal year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company gained approximately 40 basis points of store traffic share among households earning over $100,000 annually in December, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards value [40][93] - Traffic growth accelerated by 700 basis points in December compared to October, reflecting a positive response to the company's value proposition [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in 2025, having already opened three in Pennsylvania and Maryland [20] - A significant focus will be on enhancing the e-commerce experience, including improvements in site navigation and fulfillment options [23][24] - The introduction of the Jordan brand in 145 stores is expected to be a major growth driver, with plans to expand Nike assortments as well [26][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2025, anticipating challenges in Q1 but expecting Q2 to be the strongest quarter due to new initiatives [49][60] - The company is adapting to macroeconomic pressures and consumer behavior changes, focusing on value offerings to attract a broader customer base [28][60] Other Important Information - The company generated $528 million in cash from operations in 2024 and returned over $396 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [42][43] - An 18% increase in dividends was approved, resulting in a payout of $0.13 per share [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expected drivers of gross margin expansion in 2025? - Management indicated that recapturing supply chain headwinds and a higher penetration of soft lines, supported by Jordan and Nike, are expected to drive margin expansion [54][55] Question: How does the company view the impact of weather versus consumer uncertainty? - Management noted that while weather has impacted sales, they are optimistic about trends improving as the year progresses, particularly with new initiatives [60][62] Question: What is the expected contribution of new stores to comps in 2025? - Management expects new stores to contribute positively to comps, with a significant number of stores from previous vintages entering the comp base [66] Question: Can you provide more details on the Jordan brand launch? - The Jordan brand will be launched in 145 stores and online, marking the first time Academy will sell this brand, with a focus on sport products [78][80] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding tariffs and sourcing? - The company has diversified its sourcing base to mitigate tariff impacts and is focused on maintaining value for customers despite potential cost increases [86][87]