Labor Market Overview - Australian unemployment rate remained stable last month [1] - The economy experienced job losses [1] - Fewer individuals are actively seeking employment [1] - The labor market is characterized as tight [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The Reserve Bank maintains a cautious approach to policy easing [1]

New Zealand’s economy shrank much more than economists forecast in the second quarter as rising unemployment and global uncertainty curbed demand https://t.co/m3A5yInPVX ...

Group 1 - JP Morgan has lowered its prime lending rate to 7.25%, typically a response to a Fed rate cut, indicating a downward trend in rates [1] - The Fed funds rate is currently at 4.08%, with projections suggesting it may end the year around 3.6% after two rate cuts, reflecting a gradual shift in monetary policy [1][18] - The Fed's dot plot reveals mixed opinions among members regarding future rate cuts, with one member advocating for five cuts, while others prefer no further cuts this year [1][18] Group 2 - The Fed is facing a dual mandate of maintaining stable prices (targeting 2% inflation) and achieving full employment, which are currently in conflict [2][14] - Job creation has significantly decreased, with new jobs dropping from 150,000 to 25,000 per month, prompting concerns about the labor market [3][22] - The Fed's recent rate cut is seen as a risk management strategy to stimulate employment amidst a deteriorating job market [4][16] Group 3 - The current economic environment shows a lack of widespread dissent within the Fed, with only one member opposing the recent decision, indicating a level of consensus [7][11] - The Fed's approach to managing inflation and employment is complicated by external factors such as tariffs, which could lead to price increases [26][30] - There is a notable disparity in economic recovery, with the top 20% of Americans driving the economy while the bottom 80% face stagnation, affecting overall inflation dynamics [31][32]

I think you could think of this in a way as a riskmanagement cut because if you look at the SEP actually the projections for growth this year and next actually ticked up just a little bit and inflation and unemployment didn't really move much. So what what's different now. What's different now is that you see a very different picture of the risks to the labor market.You know, we were looking at 150,000 jobs a month at the time of the last meeting. And now we see the revisions and we see the new numbers. And ...

you you mentioned earlier that job creation was running below your guess at its break even rate. I'd be curious to hear a bit more about that and where you think the break even rate is, >> you know, so there there many different ways to to calculate it and um none of them is perfect, but you know, it's it's clearly come way down there. There you you could you could say it's somewhere between zero and 50,000 and you'd be right or wrong.I mean, there just many way different ways to do it. Um so whatever where ...

Summary of Federal Reserve System Update / Briefing September 17, 2025 Key Points Related to the Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions Economic Growth and Employment - The Federal Reserve noted a moderation in economic activity, with GDP growth at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year [1][2] - Job gains have slowed significantly, averaging only 29,000 per month over the last three months, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3% in August [2][3] - The labor market is experiencing a decline in both supply and demand for workers, leading to increased downside risks to employment [3][6] Inflation Trends - Total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rose by 2.7% over the 12 months ending in August, with core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [4] - Inflation expectations have increased due to tariffs, but longer-term expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% inflation goal [4][20] - The median projection for total PCE inflation is 3.0% for this year, decreasing to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 [4] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the policy interest rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25% [5][6] - The FOMC aims to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, adjusting policy in response to evolving economic conditions [5][6] - The median participant in the FOMC projects the federal funds rate to be 3.6% at the end of this year, down from previous projections [8] Risks and Future Outlook - The balance of risks has shifted, with increased downside risks to employment and a more neutral policy stance being adopted [6][16] - The Fed acknowledges the potential for persistent inflation but believes that the current labor market conditions warrant a cautious approach [20][25] - The Fed is committed to monitoring economic data closely and adjusting its policy as necessary to achieve its goals [29][70] Labor Market Dynamics - The Fed highlighted that the slowdown in job creation is largely due to a decline in labor force growth, influenced by lower immigration and participation rates [3][12] - Concerns were raised about the impact of a softening labor market on younger and minority job seekers, who are particularly vulnerable [26][40] Housing Market Considerations - The Fed recognizes that high interest rates have exacerbated housing affordability issues, impacting household formation and wealth accumulation [58][61] - The ongoing housing shortage is identified as a deeper, structural issue that the Fed cannot directly address through monetary policy [61] Conclusion - The Federal Reserve remains focused on its dual mandate while navigating a complex economic landscape characterized by low unemployment, moderated growth, and evolving inflation dynamics [9][70] - The Fed's actions are guided by data and the need to balance risks to both employment and inflation, with a commitment to achieving long-term economic stability [5][70]

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up.Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower ou ...

Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images The federal funds rate influences a number of borrowing costs. Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve's policy committee voted to reduce the central bank's key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25%, the lowest since December 2022. Fed officials have grown more worried that tariffs will spark a wave of unemployment than that they will fuel inflation, at least for the time being. The vote was divided, reflecting the Fed's dilemma: lower inter ...

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT September 17, 2025 Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dua ...

Sweden has the third-highest jobless rate in Europe, behind Spain and neighboring Finland https://t.co/NaKIydUjfy ...