Bond traders are ramping up bets on Fed rate cuts this year as signs of a weakening US economy strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs pushed by Trump https://t.co/PEnrQeCNZ7 ...

All right, welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. As we close in on the 6 a. m.Eastern time hour, a check on a few of the stories we're tracking this morning. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says we're moving closer to the need for rate cuts, saying the central bank may have to do more than two cuts. Daily cites growing evidence that the US jobs market is softening and no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation for that particular call.The Peter Tealbacked crypto exchange, Bullish, is seeking a valua ...

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a potential rate cut, possibly larger than 25 basis points (0.25%) in September, influenced by a weakening labor market [2] - A 50 basis points (0.5%) rate cut is not currently priced into Treasury yields, potentially putting downward pressure on them, possibly around 4% [3] - The market views potential Fed rate cuts as an "insurance rate cut," which could prevent further weakening in the labor market [5][6] - If the Fed cuts rates too slowly, the economy could deteriorate; however, multiple rate cuts could fuel a market rally into year-end [7] - The market slowdown observed in GDP data has now impacted the jobs market, requiring market adjustment [9] - The stock market could reach S&P 500 levels of 6500 to 6700 by year-end, assuming fiscal stimulus arrives next year and the Fed proactively addresses economic issues [10][11] Fed Leadership & Rate Strategy - The new incoming governor nominee to replace Adriana Kugler is important, as they may adopt a more proactive approach to interest rates to stimulate the economy [11][14] - Markets are pricing in a potential funds rate of almost 3% from May to the end of next year, anticipating a more proactive Fed approach [15]

🇺🇸 FED CHAIR POWELL TO DECIDE RATE CUTS SOON.BULLISH FOR #BITCOIN! 🚀 https://t.co/jcO5cQ1W3v ...

So we have a Fed meeting and then we have a jobs report. Let's start with the Fed meeting. The decision itself, not expecting too many fireworks there.But as always, there's a lot to talk about in that press conference, Julia. Absolutely. There's a lot going on.Of course, Chair Powell will put on his best poker face and reassuring voice and tone, which he's very, very good at, and say that, look, that things are there's a lot of disruption going on so far. You know, you've got a little bit of creeping highe ...

Federal Reserve officials are determined to hold interest rates steady a little while longer, though an increasingly contentious debate at this week’s policy meeting may bolster expectations for rate cuts in the fall https://t.co/1hih9aIncY ...

There’s another reason for Powell to ignore Trump and stay cautious on rate cuts, @jonathanjlevin says. It's the bizarre behavior of the dollar (via @opinion) https://t.co/OtAa7D2U1z ...

We're getting some news out of that AI event down in Washington. Aean Jabres joins us once again with that. Aean, Scott, that's right.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant just wrapped up his remarks here with the All-In uh podcast. Folks, a couple of points here that I want to bring to you and apologies from for reading from my notes here, but because I want to get this right. He was talking about US treasuries and he said that the expectation is that the Chinese government will slowly divest over time but he s ...

Market Performance & Trends - The S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and NASDAQ 100 reached fresh records, while the Dow barely closed in the red and small caps fell by approximately 025% [2][3] - The 10-year Treasury note yield decreased by 6 basis points to 437%, and the 30-year yield also decreased by 6 basis points, remaining below 5% [4] - The US dollar index decreased by approximately 067%, a significant amount for a major currency [4] - Communication services showed the strongest performance, increasing by 137%, while energy declined by more than 1% [4] - Investors are becoming more comfortable with the resilience of the US economy, supported by strong retail sales and low jobless claims [7][8] - The market reaction to tariff headlines has diminished, with the S&P 500 and tariff-related stocks showing minimal movement in response to recent tariff news [32] Company Specific News - Trump Media Technology Group revealed approximately $2 billion in Bitcoin holdings, representing about two-thirds of their balance sheet [12][13] - Taiwan Semiconductor's largest client is Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor lifted their full-year guidance by 30% [20][21] - NATO countries have committed to spend up to 5% of their GDP on defense spending over the next decade, and the European Union plans to spend $840 billion over the next four years on defense [22] - Nisource, a multi-utility company and one of the largest distributors of natural gas, has a dividend yield of nearly 3% and is considered a backdoor play into the AI revolution [26][27] - Coca-Cola is expected to report less growth in Q2 due to a slowdown in price increases, and General Motors is expected to report earnings in line with analyst estimates [63][64] Economic Outlook & Federal Reserve - The US economy is showing signs of regaining its strength, with consumer confidence and spending rebounding, and major financial institutions no longer anticipating a recession [43] - The Federal Reserve's summary of economic projections in June indicated a potential slowdown to 14% by the end of the year, with unemployment rising to 45% and core PCE inflation rising to 31% [47] - The market is currently pricing in approximately two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year, potentially in September and October [60]

Meanwhile, our next guest thinks tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell could reach a boiling point by the next interest rate decision scheduled for later this month. Ben Emmens is founder and chief investment officers at Fed Watch Adviserss. Ben, thank you for being with us.I mean, my goodness. Uh, I can't even remember what day it was this week, but it was a long day and a short day allin-one. We had we thought we knew one thing and then an hour and a half later we knew something dif ...