Whatever probability you put on recession a few weeks ago, it should be lower now that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, WSJ’s Greg Ip writes https://t.co/TPIx0xsqQN ...

$BTC traders should keep an eye out for Japan. Analysis by @robin_j_brooks suggests that a potential U.S. recession could offer relief to debt-laden Japan. By @godbole17.https://t.co/xRDZF1JvcO ...

We'll stick with the market and the appetite for IPOs here as the Fed gets set to cut rates tomorrow. Joining us now is TD Cowan President Jeffrey Solomon. Jeff, what are you seeing in the in the pipeline.Well, we're certainly seeing, you know, great performance. I think it's actually been pretty healthy. I think you mentioned as you mentioned Leslie earlier, you know, these IPOs are a little bit more uh I think well placaced.you haven't seen sort of this uh same kind of dynamic that we saw in 2021, which I ...

Jordi Visser (@jvisserlabs) says we will NOT have a recession. https://t.co/qgTnBh0GW2 ...

I think the economy is weakening, you know, whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don't know, and that just confirms what we already thought, kind of. And I know that's a big revision. And speaking of kind of what we were going back to with the state of the economy, the difficulty predicting one of the questions people have is what's going on with the consumer right now.They're still spending money. It's a little bit different depending on what income set they're coming from. They sti ...

Joining me now is Kevin Hasset, director of the National Economic Council. Thank you so much for joining us this afternoon. We really appreciate it. >> Well, it's great to have you. I do want to start off uh with your reaction to the August jobs report. As you know, just 22,000 jobs were created last month and revisions showed the US actually lost jobs in June. That's the first month of job losses since the pandemic. Is this a warning sign about the state of the labor market? Well, right now when we're look ...

I want to bring in Ron Insana, CNBC contributor and publisher of the message of the market on Substack. Peter Baker is New York Times chief White House correspondent and an MSNBC political analyst. Mark McKinnon is a former adviser to President George W.Bush and Senator John McCain as well as creator of the television series The Circus. So Ron, the president says we are the hottest economy in the world. What does this report tell us.Well, I would fly in the face of that analysis and and and I think you know ...

Economic Slowdown & Recession Concerns - The US economy is slowing down, though not yet in recession, with weak payroll prints attributed to both lack of demand and supply due to immigration crackdown [2][3] - Construction spending is down year-on-year, signaling potential recessionary pressures [4] - Rate cuts are unlikely to stimulate growth and may negatively impact retirees' interest income, potentially increasing uncertainty [5][6][7] Uncertainty & Policy Impact - Uncertainty, stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and geopolitical factors, is acting as a significant drag on the economy, hindering business investment and hiring [8][9][10][11] - Businesses are hesitant to make decisions due to policy uncertainty, adopting a "wait and see" approach [11] - While tax cuts are beneficial for corporations, the unpredictable nature of tariffs creates challenges for long-term planning and investment in manufacturing [12][13] Trade & Tariffs - The industry emphasizes the need for clear and consistent trade rules, suggesting a long-term tariff regime established through Congress to provide businesses with certainty [14][15] - Tariffs are viewed as a tax on consumers, and their fluctuating nature makes it difficult for businesses to compete and plan investments [16] Market Outlook - The market's positive reaction is likely due to anticipation of rate cuts, but these cuts may not address the underlying economic issues [5][6] - Despite the challenges, the US economy has the potential for steady growth around 2%, but uncertainty is hindering progress [9]

Market Overview & Potential Pullback - The market experienced a surge, with the S&P 500 up 29% and NASDAQ up 40% since April 8th [3] - A 5% to 10% pullback would be reasonable and healthy, with expectations of buyers stepping in [3] - The NASDAQ is less than 3% from an all-time high, suggesting the current situation isn't a serious pullback for major averages [4] - A significant pullback (e g, 6%) would likely require a trigger, such as disappointing comments from Jay Powell, weak jobs numbers implying a recession, or disappointing Nvidia earnings [6] Key Stocks & Earnings - "Mag Seven" companies' earnings grew 23% as a group, with high profit margins [8] - Deals with the government could provide downside protection for these companies regarding antitrust, anti-competitive behavior, and foreign employee restrictions [8] - Arius Asset Management owns Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Broadcom [9] Consumer Spending & Retail - The consumer has not fallen off a cliff due to continued employment and discretionary income [15] - Home Depot numbers were a relief, though not exceptionally good, with same-store sales up 13% [13] - Target's numbers were weak [13] - TJX's numbers were good, indicating consumers are looking for bargains [14] Portfolio Concentration - The "Mag Seven" stocks represent 29% of the market cap in Arius Asset Management's portfolio [10] - These companies are experiencing earnings growth of 23-24% and have average operating profit margins of 40% [10]

Your next guest is a longtime shareholder and close follower of the company. Joining us, Bill Stone, CIO of the Glen View Trust Company. I think $350 billion, Bill, even for you, is a lot of money.Like, it makes me wonder, what are they waiting for. Or maybe what do they know. Yeah.And I know some people speculate that he's, you know, that Buffett might be taking some sort of a macroeconomic bet. Um, and it could be. He he mostly talks about not thinking about that and just focusing in on owning stocks at a ...