At the end of that speech at Colombia, you nodded to the fact that uh recessions are inevitable. Fed's job is to kind of forstall them as much as as they can. Policy makers jobs are that I'm I'm very curious when you look at the labor market in particular, the rise that we've seen in the unemployment rate.That's kind of rise we've seen customarily before recessions. How do you assess the the risk of there being a recession here in the near term when you look at the labor market for instance. >> So I don't s ...

Monetary Policy - US Federal Reserve risks triggering a recession if it doesn't continue lowering interest rates next year [1]

Market Overview - Markets were mixed, with the Nasdaq rising by +0.23% due to positive news from Tesla, while the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 declined by -0.62%, -0.24%, and -0.45% respectively [1] - The U.S. jobs report showed a net gain of +64K jobs in November, recovering from an October loss of -105K jobs, contributing to concerns about economic stability [2] Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - Retail Sales for October remained unchanged at 0.0%, missing expectations of a +0.1% increase, while ex-auto sales rose by +0.4% [3][4] - The S&P flash Services PMI for December was reported at 52.9, down from 54.1, and Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.8 from 52.2, but both remain above the growth threshold of 50 [5] Oil Market Dynamics - Global crude oil prices are nearing five-year lows, with West Texas crude trading at $55 per barrel, marking ten consecutive days below $60, which may help keep inflation low but negatively impacts companies like Phillips 66, which saw a nearly -7% drop [6] Company Performance: Lennar Home - Lennar Home reported Q4 earnings, missing bottom-line expectations due to a one-time charge of $156 million, with earnings of $1.93 per share and revenues of $9.37 billion, surpassing the consensus of $9.13 billion [7] - New orders for Lennar Home decreased by +18% year-over-year, indicating challenges in the overall market, with expectations for new deliveries falling below analyst estimates [8][9]

We're living truly in a K-shaped economy and and what is happening in that lower part of the K actually focusing and not figuring out solutions around it is probably one place where there should be a lot more focus. >> Do you think a recession in uh a big piece of the economy. uh parts of it are recessionary.You know, when you have nine months of PMI numbers, producer manufacturing numbers negative in the United States, that tells you manufacturing is recessionary today, last 9 months, right. But but I but ...

Macroeconomic Outlook - Treasury Secretary 不预测明年会出现经济衰退，但承认增长存在一些薄弱环节 [1] - 住房市场表现挣扎，对利率敏感的行业已经出现衰退 [2] - 政府停摆对经济不利，但对 2026 年经济前景非常乐观 [2] Aviation Industry - 美国航空公司预测感恩节假期旅行人数将创纪录，预计超过 3100 万人次 [3][4] - 感恩节后周日预计将是最繁忙的一天，预计有 340 万人次出行，占比 10.97% [4] Financial Sector & Cybersecurity - FBI 正在调查最近针对房地产贷款技术供应商 AMC 的银行网络攻击事件，摩根大通、花旗和摩根士丹利是其客户 [4] - 各公司于 11 月 12 日得知了此次漏洞，目前已得到控制 [5] Mergers & Acquisitions - Anglo-American 拒绝了 BHP 的最新收购要约，倾向于竞争对手的收购，这将创建一个价值近 600 亿美元的铜业巨头 [5] Retail Industry - Kohl's 将任命其临时 CEO Michael Bender 为永久 CEO [6] Entertainment Industry - 环球影业的《魔法坏女巫》首周末国内票房收入估计为 1.5 亿美元 [6] - 《魔法坏女巫》成为今年首周末票房第二高的电影，仅次于《我的世界》电影 [7]

So, how do you think the tariffs on the imported pasta are going to change things for your customers here. >> Well, obviously will come with an increase on pricing. Uh, especially for people like us that we don't like to compromise on the quality of the products.>> Are you concerned at all for your business. >> Of course. Of course.You know, time for restaurants is very difficult these days with all the cost increases from energy to rent to labor. Especially here in New York there is a lot of prediction for ...

Core Viewpoint - The recommendation is to maintain a long position in risk assets while shorting hyperscaler bonds and going long on zero-coupon bonds as a hedge against potential recession [1] Group 1 - The advice emphasizes staying long on risk assets for the time being [1] - There is a specific recommendation to short hyperscaler bonds, indicating a bearish outlook on this segment [1] - The strategy includes going long on zero-coupon bonds, which are seen as a protective measure against economic downturns [1]

Market Overview & Predictions - The author emphasizes the importance of balancing predictions with adaptability in the crypto market, suggesting neither extreme works [1] - The author anticipates a major global reset, potentially a depression comparable to 1929, unfolding between late 2025 and early 2026, driven by the unwinding of quantitative easing and tightening policies [3] - Tariffs are considered less significant compared to larger economic forces that will cause sharper market corrections [4] Short-Term & Medium-Term Outlook - A rebound is expected in the very short term, with Bitcoin potentially moving towards the $92,000 - $98,000 zone, and altcoins potentially bouncing 50%-100% [4] - A decent chance of another capitulation is expected in the short term (next few weeks), potentially triggered by renewed tariff talks, a pandemic scare, or escalating conflict [5] - A bullish trend is expected in the medium term (next few months, probably until September), potentially leading to an altseason, though not as significant as 2021 or 2017 [5] Long-Term Concerns & Risks - The author expresses concern about the artificial inflation of Bitcoin's price by ETFs and USDT/USDC minting, while many altcoins remain near their lows [7] - September 2025 is highlighted as a potential pivot point, drawing parallels to the 2021 cycle where a bear market began in November 2021 [7] - The author cautions about the potential behavior of Bitcoin during a real global recession/depression, expecting extreme volatility and potentially the worst part of the cycle [8]

You had said before the policy meeting that you were somewhat uneasy about front-loading rate cuts based solely on slowing payroll growth and that at the same time inflation had been moving in the wrong direction and just counting on inflation to be transitory made you uneasy. So why did you vote in favor of cutting rates last week. Was there anything that changed that caused you to want to take out more insurance.Well, before the last meeting, not not this not this November meeting, but in September, um my ...

A K-shaped recovery is when segments of an economy recover from a recession at different rates. https://t.co/Mp3zBWoyov ...