I want to ask about Wall Street and specifically about this equity market. I do watch our competition, and I saw your interview with Andrew. Last week you said this is like October of 1999.But after that, as you pointed out, you know, the stock market doubled. We had a drop in October, like an 11% intraday drop. But then the stock market doubled to March of 2000.Are we still in line for a doubling of this market. Well, it's so funny because you had mentioned that 54% of fund managers think that we're in a b ...

Core Performance - Kingdom Capital Advisors achieved a strong recovery in Q3 2025, with a return of 20.78% (net of fees), outperforming the Russell 2000 TR (12.39%), S&P 500 TR (8.12%), and NASDAQ 100 TR (9.01%) [2] - Year-to-date returns through September 30, 2025, show KCA at 8.68%, compared to 7.87% for Russell 2000 TR, 10.39% for S&P 500 TR, and 14.83% for NASDAQ 100 TR [3] Portfolio Contributors and Detractors - Top contributors in Q3 included United Natural Foods (UNFI) and Genesco (GCO), while WW International (WW) was the largest detractor [4][17] Investment Strategy - The portfolio is balanced approximately 50/50 between "special situation" investments and traditional growth positions [6] - Special situation investments are expected to sell undervalued assets within the next twelve months, with potential upsides ranging from 25% to over 100% of current stock prices [7] - Traditional holdings are trading at about 10 times estimated earnings for the coming year, compared to nearly 30 times trailing twelve-month earnings, indicating a focus on undervalued companies [8] Notable Investments - United Natural Foods (UNFI) demonstrated strong performance despite a cyberattack, with management exceeding sales guidance and expecting $300 million in free cash flow for FY26 [13] - Genesco (GCO) saw significant gains after a brief ownership period, benefiting from a tax refund and growth in sales through a revised concept [14] - Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV) was initiated during Q3, with expectations of cash returns from asset sales [12] Challenges and Outlook - WW International (WW) has faced challenges post-bankruptcy, but there is potential for growth in their clinical business despite market concerns [17] - Magnera Corporation (MAGN) is experiencing stagnant stock prices despite stable business operations, with management taking proactive measures to improve performance [17] - a.k.a. Brands (AKA) continues to show strong sales growth, but stock prices remain low despite management's strong execution [17]

分组1 - JP Morgan Chase plans to invest up to $10 billion over the next 10 years in sectors such as defense, aerospace, AI, quantum computing, energy technology, and advanced manufacturing as part of its security and resiliency initiatives [1] - The bank aims to facilitate $1.5 trillion in funding for companies deemed crucial [1] 分组2 - JP Morgan Chase and other major banks are set to kick off the earnings season, with JP Morgan's stock up 2.5% and other banks like Wells Fargo and Citigroup also showing positive movements [2] - Analysts express optimism for the upcoming earnings season, anticipating an acceleration in loan growth due to decreasing tariff tensions and potential Fed rate cuts [3][4] 分组3 - Expectations for improved credit quality among banks, with many analysts believing that concerns from earlier in the year have not materialized [6] - Consumer spending remains strong despite negative headlines, with actual spending patterns indicating resilience in the consumer sector [10][11] 分组4 - Large banks are expected to report strong fee income, while smaller banks may see improvements in net interest income as loan growth accelerates and deposit costs decrease [15][16] - Capital requirements for banks have decreased, allowing them to lean into loan growth and share buybacks, which could benefit stock performance [17][18]

Market Sentiment and Underlying Conditions - The market experienced a wakeup call, appearing tired beneath the surface for 3-4 weeks prior to Friday's action [1][2] - Market's interpretation suggests conditions are generally in good shape, with cyclical stocks outperforming defensive stocks and benign credit conditions [3][7][8] - The market sold off due to concerns about escalating trade war with China, specifically potential 100% tariffs [6] Key Levels and Future Outlook - 6,400-6,450 is identified as a good support level, with expectations of one more move higher into year-end [4] - Strategus Research Partners is targeting 7,000 for year-end, but anticipates a potentially more defensive tone taking shape in 2026 [5] - Monitoring the 385 basis points level on 10-year Treasury yields as a potential signal of economic weakening [9] Macroeconomic Factors and Policy Impact - Lower oil prices (at $59 and change) and lower rates should act as stimulus, particularly for consumer stocks in the first quarter of 2026 [10][11] - Deregulatory push across industries, including banks and energy, is a significant factor [12] - Financials have been leaders for 2 years; a shift in the broader story would likely involve a weakening of financials [13] Sector Performance and Leadership - Healthcare is starting to inflect, raising questions about whether this will spread to other defensive sectors like staples and REITs [5] - Weakness is observed in private capital stocks (e.g., Apollo, Owl), while money center banks may gain market share due to deregulation [13][14]

Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene signalled that she is considering holding interest rates until at least March next year on concerns that policy is not restrictive enough to squeeze out lingering price pressures https://t.co/TBnjN8MONL ...

Market Outlook - Fundstrat 仍然对市场保持乐观，预计标普500指数年底将达到7000点 [1] - 市场自4月低点以来已上涨36% [2] - 尽管存在一些不利因素，但市场积极因素多于消极因素 [2] - 摩根大通宣布向美国投资1.5 trillion 美元，以加强美国在关键领域的优势，尤其是在人工智能和区块链领域 [3] - 利率下降对股市有利 [4] - 市场情绪并非过度乐观 [6] - 场外有7 trillion 美元资金等待入市 [6] - 周五的抛售实际上是一个机会，VIX 指数上涨32%，历史上第39高，一个月的中位数回报率接近3% [5] - 标普500指数可能在今天到11月中旬之间增加200点 [6] Company Valuation - 英伟达的市盈率约为福特汽车的27倍 [3] - 英伟达的市盈率低于沃尔玛和好市多，后两者约为福特汽车的47倍和34倍 [4] Crypto Market - Tether 的美元供应量在过去3个月开始增加，与黄金价格上涨相对应 [9] - 稳定币，包括 Tether，可能是目前最大的黄金买家之一 [9] - 加密货币市场一直存在大量杠杆 [12] - 过去3天加密货币市场清算估计至少为19 billion 美元，可能被低估，可能是自2021年以来最大的一次 [13] - 人们通过 perpetuals 产品进行杠杆交易，杠杆比例为3倍至20倍 [13]

What would happen if the the US adopted a formal policy of trying to keep interest rates low? Look to Japan, says @allisonschrager, which now has an economy full of zombie companies (via @opinion) https://t.co/NEz8EU760W ...

Economists have largely abandoned forecasts that the SNB will cut interest rates into negative territory, according to a Bloomberg survey https://t.co/JMuBn0jKb5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh advocates for a complete overhaul of the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy, emphasizing the need for credibility and effective interest rate management, particularly in light of perceived failures under current Chair Jerome Powell [3][5][9]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Philosophy - Warsh became the youngest Fed governor at age 35, with a strong academic and professional background, but he now believes he overthought monetary policy during his tenure [2]. - A pivotal meeting with former Fed Chair Paul Volcker shaped Warsh's understanding of the central bank's dual responsibilities: setting appropriate interest rates and maintaining credibility [3][4]. Group 2: Critique of the Powell Fed - Warsh criticizes the Powell Fed for failing to manage interest rates effectively, citing a series of policy mistakes that have led to high inflation, with the consumer price index rising at a 2.9% annual rate in August [5][9]. - He argues that the Fed's approach has been overly influenced by external factors, such as supply chains and tariffs, rather than focusing on government spending and money supply as primary inflation drivers [7][11]. Group 3: Proposed Changes to the Fed - Warsh envisions a Fed that reduces its influence over fiscal policy and limits its authority in areas like banking supervision, suggesting that these responsibilities should lie with political agencies [17][21]. - He proposes a significant reduction of the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet and a return to monetarist principles, which emphasize the relationship between money supply and inflation [18][20]. Group 4: Political Context and Future Implications - Warsh's candidacy for Fed Chair is part of a broader conservative movement aiming to reform the central bank, particularly as Powell's term is set to end in May 2026 [8][30]. - Trump's public desire for lower interest rates, potentially by as much as three percentage points, raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its credibility in managing inflation [29][30].

Precious Metals Market Analysis - Gold is at an all-time high, driven by the acceleration of de-dollarization that began a couple of years ago [1] - Silver just hit a new all-time record high, above $51, and is expected to reach $100 quickly, possibly next year [1] - Gold, now above $4,000, has a shot at $5,000 by the end of the year, potentially reaching $6,000 or higher next year [1] - Wall Street banks are now recommending clients have 10%-20% exposure to gold [1] Factors Driving Gold Demand - Biden's sanctions against Russia served as a wake-up call for countries to seek alternatives to the dollar [1] - Reckless spending by the Trump administration and tariffs accelerated the move away from dollars [1] - China is divesting from US dollars and treasuries, replacing them with gold reserves to establish an independent monetary system [3] - The debasement trade narrative is taking hold as people recognize the Fed's inability to maintain 2% inflation [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Fed is cutting interest rates into rising inflation, with potential return to QE to keep long-term interest rates from rising [3] - The Fed is using weakness in the labor market as an excuse to cut rates, which will strengthen inflation, not the labor market [5] - Trump's economic policy receives an "F" grade due to massive government spending and deficits, similar to the Biden economy [10][11] - Trump's tariffs are criticized for being unconstitutional and used as a weapon for political concessions [12] Gold vs Bitcoin - Bitcoin is down about 18% from its peak priced in gold [6] - Gold is considered a safe haven store of value, while Bitcoin is viewed as a highly speculative asset correlated with risk assets like the NASDAQ [6] - A potential switch back from Bitcoin ETFs to gold stocks could create downside risk for Bitcoin [6]