Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of recent economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in manufacturing, consumer confidence, and housing sales, which indicate mixed economic signals across these regions [4][10][11]. Group 1: US Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations with a preliminary value of 52.3, compared to an expected 49.9 and a previous value of 50.2 [4][10]. - April existing home sales were below expectations at an annualized rate of 4 million units, while new home sales were better than expected at 743,000 units, revised down from 724,000 units [4][10]. - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April matched expectations with a month-on-month change of -1%, revised from -0.7% to -0.8% [4][10]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone slightly beat expectations at 49.4, compared to an expected 49.2 and a previous value of 49 [11]. - The consumer confidence index for May recorded -15.2, better than the expected -16 and revised from -16.7 to -16.6 [11]. - April CPI final value met expectations at 2.2% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.7%, revised from a previous value of 2.4% [11]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 49, up from a previous value of 48.7, while the services PMI decreased to 50.8 from 52.4 [5]. - Core machinery orders for March significantly exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 13%, compared to an expected decrease of 1.6% [5]. - April CPI was slightly above expectations at 3.6% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Indices - The US WEI index fell to 1.9% for the week ending May 17, down from 2.07% and 2.56% in previous weeks [15]. - The German WAI index also declined to -0.29% for the week ending May 18, compared to -0.08% and -0.04% in prior weeks [16]. Group 5: Demand Indicators - US Redbook retail sales showed a slight year-on-year decline to 5.4%, down from 5.8% and 6.9% in previous weeks [17]. - Global flight numbers increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with approximately 236,700 flights executed as of May 23 [20]. - US mortgage rates rose slightly to 6.86% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, up from 6.81% and 6.76% in previous weeks [24]. Group 6: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly better than expected at 227,000, compared to an expectation of 230,000 and a previous value of 229,000 [26]. - Continued claims rose to 1.903 million, up from a previous value of 1.867 million [26]. Group 7: Price Trends - Global commodity prices saw a slight increase, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 0.2% [28]. - US gasoline prices increased to $3.04 per gallon, reflecting a 1.8% rise from the previous week [28]. Group 8: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed a slight tightening, with indices at 0.165 and 1.2 respectively [31]. - The long-term bond yield spread between Italy and Germany narrowed, while the spread between the US and Japan remained stable, and the US and Eurozone spread widened [37].

文章来源：光大期货 上周，COMEX黄金价格上涨5.65%至3386.5美元/盎司，沪金主连上涨3.76%至780.10元/克。 资料来源：Wind、新浪财经、金十数据、光大期货研究所 撰稿：吴爱华 从业资格：F3074355 投资咨询资格：Z0017696 免责声明：文中观点、建议和结论仅供参考，报告中的资料来源于公开信息，相关分析和建议并不构成 所述品种的投资操作依据，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和本作者无关。 关税方面，美国贸易谈判代表正在推动欧盟单方面降低对美国商品的关税，但欧盟一直在推动达成一项 共同商定的谈判框架文本，双方的分歧仍然太大。 数据方面，美国5月Markit制造业PMI初值52.3，创三个月新高，高于预期49.9和前值50.2；服务业PMI 初值52.3，创下两个月新高，高于预期51和前值50.8；综合PMI初值52.1，预期50.3，前值50.6。 降息方面，最新CME"美联储观察"数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率 为5.6%，到7月维持利率不变的概率为74.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为23.9%，累计降息50个基点的 概率为1.1%。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results, with Shanghai gold futures at 780.10 CNY per gram, up 0.10%, and Shanghai silver futures at 8263.00 CNY per kilogram, down 0.37% [1] - International precious metals saw an overall increase, with COMEX gold priced at 3329.60 USD per ounce, up 1.05%, and COMEX silver at 33.39 USD per ounce, up 0.63% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver were 775.22 CNY and 8236.00 CNY respectively, with their highest prices reaching 780.58 CNY and 8286.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in April, exceeding expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI also increased to 52.3 [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, lower than the previous week's 229,000 and below the expected 230,000, indicating a stable labor market [3] - Recent market analysis indicated that gold faced profit-taking pressure after a recent rally, with a stronger dollar acting as a negative factor, although the overall outlook for gold remains bullish due to global bond market volatility [3]

英国5月服务业PMI初值 50.2，预期50，前值49。 ...

PMI显示，欧元区5月商业活动意外收缩 金十数据5月22日讯，调查显示，欧元区10月商业活动意外重陷萎缩，因欧元区主要服务业需求进一步 下滑，不过制造业显示出进一步企稳的迹象。欧元区综合PMI初值从4月的50.4降至49.5。服务业PMI从 50.1降至48.9，为2024年1月以来的最低水平，远低于升至50.3的调查预估。"欧元区经济似乎无法找到 立足点。"汉堡商业银行首席经济学家赛勒斯•德拉鲁比亚表示："自1月份以来，整体PMI仅显示出最微 弱的增长迹象，而5月份，私营部门实际上陷入了收缩。" ...

欧元区5月制造业PMI初值为49.4，预期49.3；5月服务业PMI初值为48.9，预期50.3。 ...

德国5月服务业PMI初值 47.2，预期49.5，前值49。 ...

金十数据5月22日讯，德国5月商业活动下滑，为今年首次萎缩，因服务业的急剧下滑盖过了制造业温和 增长的影响。德国5月综合PMI初值从50.1降至48.6，低于荣枯分水岭50.0。服务业PMI从4月份的49.0降 至47.2，创30个月新低。报告称，这种下降是由需求疲软和客户不确定性驱动的，这是自2024年9月以 来的最大降幅。制造业PMI从4月份的48.4升至48.8。汉堡商业银行首席经济学家赛勒斯•德拉鲁比亚表 示："展望未来，国防支出的增加和更明确的基础设施一揽子计划可能会给该行业带来额外的推动力。 此外，在能源价格下降的推动下，投入成本不断下降，应该会给制造商带来一些喘息的空间。" 德国5月商业活动下滑，为今年首次萎缩 ...

法国5月服务业PMI初值 47.4，预期47.5，前值47.3。 ...

日本5月服务业PMI初值 50.8，前值52.4。 ...