Here we go. It's time for the August ADP payroll report. Steve Leeman's here.Steve, >> thank you. Uh is 15. Yes, it is.Um 54,000 ADP, the private payroll company, estimating that private payrolls around the country rose by 54,000. That is against an estimate of 75,000. So a little bit under good sector 13 interesting number there.Services 42 not so strong. And there's the non-form payroll estimate 75 for both government and the private sector for Friday. So we'll see if there's an adjustment.It's in and aro ...

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Labor Market & Wage Deflation - The labor market is experiencing wage deflation, which will become more apparent soon [14] - Companies are hesitant to hire due to the high cost of labor and are exploring digitization and automation ("agentics") as alternatives [4][3] - AI is expected to contribute to wage deflation in law firms, accounting firms, and advertising firms, as these organizations are reluctant to hire due to the potential for AI to replace jobs [10][11][12] - Layoffs are anticipated in host banks due to mergers and acquisitions, specifically Capital One's acquisition of Discover [8] Company Specifics & Industry Trends - Intel's balance sheet is weak and may require government intervention [2] - Amazon is expanding same-day grocery delivery to 2,300 cities, potentially impacting DoorDash, Instacart, Kroger, and Target [6][7] - FedEx and Amazon are utilizing robots in warehouses, reducing the need for human labor and lowering delivery costs [5] - Mergers and acquisitions are expected to increase, leading to layoffs, especially with the Biden administration's de facto ban on M&A activity ending [9] Inflation & Producer Price Index (PPI) - The focus should be on wage deflation rather than outliers in the PPI, such as trucking prices and diesel, which are expected to reverse [8] - Tariffs may force companies to raise prices, but wage deflation will ultimately be more significant [13][14]

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Market Reaction & Data Trust - Market is likely to react to recent data revisions, but a significant fallout is not immediately apparent [1][2] - The market was surprised due to lower volatility and liquidity during the summer months [2] - The industry continues to trust the data, acknowledging that some data points are estimates that are backfilled later [5] - Every report needs to be scrutinized in the context of the Federal Reserve's policy shift [6] Labor Market & Economic Narrative - The focus remains on the labor market, specifically the absence of increased layoffs [3] - The prevailing narrative is that employers are hoarding labor [4] - The market perceives the labor market as more critical than inflation, a sentiment telegraphed by the Federal Reserve [8] - Fears of the Federal Reserve being behind the curve are expected to escalate [9] Inflation & Federal Reserve Policy - Incremental inflationary pressures are considered less of a concern, with a return to the "transitory" narrative [10] - Political challenges of elevated unemployment are expected to be more concerning to the Federal Reserve [11] - It's possible the Federal Reserve would have acted differently on rate policy with correct data [8] Investment Strategy - Current guidance advises clients to remain overly diversified across risk spectrums [12] - Fixed income acted as a ballast during the equity drawdown, and foreign markets have been supportive [12] - The industry is constantly seeking opportunities to add or reduce risk based on the evolving environment [13]

A comprehensive list of 2025 tech layoffs | TechCrunch https://t.co/9D9o4qmNSv ...

Since the rise of generative AI, many have feared the toll it would take on the livelihood of human workers. Now CEOs are admitting AI’s impact and layoffs are starting to ramp up.Read more: https://t.co/QjIMStqkwD https://t.co/ToIypL12Tq ...

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