The end of QT matters more for bitcoin than today's rate cut at this stage in the cycle.If we get anything other than a dovish Fed announcing the end of QT with further support on standby, bitcoin is likely to have a visceral reaction. ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may soon end its quantitative tightening program, potentially as early as today, according to analysts [1] - The balance sheet of the Fed is crucial for controlling monetary policy, as banks earn a guaranteed return on reserves held at the Fed [2] - The Fed influences the federal-funds rate, which was lowered to a range of 3.75% to 4% in September, impacting interest rates across the financial system [3]

Economic Indicators - US MBA mortgage applications increased by +7.1% for the week ending October 24, with the purchase mortgage sub-index rising by +4.5% and the refinancing sub-index up by +9.3% [1] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell by -7 basis points to a 13-month low of 6.30% from 6.37% in the previous week [1] - US September pending home sales remained unchanged month-over-month, which was weaker than the expected increase of +1.2% [5] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes are reaching new all-time highs, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and Nasdaq 100 all climbing [3] - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.13%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.23%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.53% [5] - Strength in semiconductor stocks, particularly a +4% increase in Nvidia, is contributing to broader market gains [2][16] Trade Relations - Easing global trade tensions are supporting stock market gains, with President Trump indicating a potential reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods from 20% to as low as 10% [3] - A tentative trade agreement between US and China was reached, which includes commitments from China not to restrict rare earth metal exports and to purchase a substantial amount of US soybeans [6] - The US and South Korea finalized a trade deal involving $150 billion in shipbuilding investments in the US, with tariffs on South Korean goods capped at 15% [3] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a second consecutive interest rate reduction, setting the benchmark rate in the 3.75%-4% range [4] - The Fed will end its quantitative tightening process on December 1, reflecting a significant shift in its balance sheet strategy [4] Earnings Reports - This week is significant for earnings, with 173 S&P 500 companies reporting, including major firms like Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft [7] - Q3 earnings have been strong, with 84% of S&P 500 companies that reported so far beating forecasts, although profits are expected to rise by only +7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years [7] - Notable gainers include Bloom Energy, Seagate Technology, and Teradyne, all reporting better-than-expected earnings [17][18][19]

Market Expectations - The market anticipates significant interest rate reductions [1] - The market expects the Federal Reserve to cease Quantitative Tightening (QT) [1] - The market hopes for a US-China trade agreement [1] - The market predicts Bitcoin (BTC) and alternative cryptocurrencies (alts) to reach new All-Time Highs (ATH) [1]

Group 1 - The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: IJR) is identified as one of the top trending stocks, with significant interest from investors due to recent market movements and predictions of productivity gains from AI [1] - Bill Baruch, founder and President of Blue Line Capital and Blue Line Futures, expressed his investment in IJR, noting a sharp sell-off in SPY and IJR, and a subsequent response from the Russell 2000 index following comments from Fed Chair Powell about the endgame to quantitative tightening [1] - The small-cap index represented by IJR is considered slimmer, which may provide a breakout opportunity in the small-cap sector [1] Group 2 - While IJR is acknowledged as a potential investment, there is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer higher returns with limited downside risk, suggesting a preference for AI stocks over IJR for some investors [2] - A report is mentioned that highlights an extremely cheap AI stock benefiting from Trump tariffs and onshoring, indicating a focus on specific AI opportunities [2]

Group 1 - SNAP will suspend federal food aid from November 1 due to the government shutdown, affecting millions of Americans [3] - Kenvue has appointed a new chief marketing officer amid legal challenges regarding Tylenol marketing related to autism risk [3] - Melissa, a Category 5 hurricane, made landfall in Jamaica and may impact the hotel sector [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its key rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the upcoming meeting [5] - Policymakers are entering the meeting without key economic data due to the government shutdown, including nonfarm payrolls and the core PCE index [6] - Wall Street strategists anticipate the Fed may signal an end to balance sheet reduction by year-end as reserves approach "ample" levels [7] Group 3 - Seeking Alpha sentiment shows mixed expectations among subscribers regarding the number of Fed cuts before year-end, with 50% forecasting one cut and 44% expecting two more in 2025 [8] - Cameco and Brookfield are partnering with the U.S. for an $80 billion nuclear initiative [9] - Microsoft and OpenAI's collaboration is expected to accelerate AI advancements [9]

Group 1: UBS Financial Performance - UBS reported a pre-tax profit increase of 47% year-over-year, reaching 2.8 billion [4][5] - Revenue also exceeded analyst expectations, with core results up nearly 20% when excluding one-off items [5] - The investment bank segment saw a 23% increase, indicating strong performance and market share gains [6] Group 2: GSK Financial Performance - GSK delivered strong Q3 results with sales of 3.4 billion pounds, driven by a 16% increase in specialty medicines [22][23] - The company upgraded its 2025 guidance, projecting turnover growth of 6-7%, up from a previous range of 3-5% [23][24] - Core operating profit growth guidance was also raised to 9-11%, previously 6-8% [23][24] Group 3: Market Trends and Federal Reserve - The AI trade is gaining momentum, contributing to record highs in Wall Street markets, particularly driven by Nvidia's recent deals [4][30] - Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a 99.9% probability priced in [30] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by a lack of economic data due to the government shutdown, raising concerns about the labor market [31][38] Group 4: European Stock Market Integration - There are discussions about the potential for a single European stock exchange to enhance liquidity and capital access [42][43] - Euronext currently holds a significant market capitalization, approximately 6.2-6.5 trillion euros, compared to the London Stock Exchange's 3 trillion [46] - The fragmentation of liquidity in European markets is a concern, with calls for greater consolidation among exchanges [54][55]

I don't know. They're going to be surprises. They're going to cut tomorrow. They're going to announce. I would guess they're going to end quantitative tightening.Those aren't surprises. I think the only possible surprise is I think Jay Powell, I believe, should leave the door open to cutting in December. The markets are pricing in that they're going to cut in December.But he's going to want to leave some optionality just in case they're getting closer to neutral. Inflation is still running 7500 basis points ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but faces challenges in determining future monetary policy direction due to differing opinions among policymakers and a lack of economic data [2][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, currently targeted between 4%-4.25% [2]. - There is a divergence of opinion among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate cuts while others prefer a more cautious approach [4][7]. - Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran is likely to support a larger cut, while other regional Presidents have shown reluctance to pursue further reductions [6][7]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns over the labor market are a significant factor driving the Fed's inclination to lower rates, despite a lack of recent data [11][15]. - The chief economist at Wilmington Trust anticipates multiple rate cuts in the coming months, potentially bringing the rate down to a neutral range of 2.75% to 3% [12]. - The Fed's focus on job market stability is heightened, even as inflation remains above the 2% target, with the annual inflation rate reported at 3% in September [15]. Group 3: Data Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a data blackout, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions [16]. - The absence of key economic reports, such as the September nonfarm payrolls, adds uncertainty to the Fed's dual mandate of maximizing employment and maintaining price stability [16][17]. - The Fed is expected to communicate uncertainty regarding future policy paths, indicating readiness to adjust rates based on incoming data [17]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is nearing the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) process, which involves reducing its $6.6 trillion balance sheet primarily composed of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities [18][19]. - Recent statements from Chair Jerome Powell suggest that the Fed may soon signal the conclusion of QT, as financial conditions show signs of tightening [19][20]. - Market commentary is divided on whether the Fed will announce an immediate end to QT or indicate a future cessation date [19].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. central bank is expected to cut interest rates, but the future of quantitative tightening (QT) remains uncertain, which could impact crypto markets [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Quantitative Tightening - Analysts predict a 90% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [5]. - Futures trading data indicates a 97.8% probability of a rate cut on Wednesday and an 89% chance of another cut in December [6]. - The end of QT would signal a higher tolerance for inflation, potentially leading to inflation expectations closer to 3% over the medium term [5]. Group 2: Impact on Crypto Markets - A cessation of QT could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other crypto assets, as it implies a higher tolerance for inflation [2][5]. - Bitcoin was trading flat at approximately $114,850, while Ethereum saw a slight decline of 2.2% in the past day but remained above $4,100, indicating that investors may have already priced in the anticipated rate cut [3]. - The current liquidity growth in the U.S. and globally is expected to extend the bull market into 2026, with a potential risk-on scenario for Bitcoin and crypto assets [7].