Core Insights - Proactive provides fast, accessible, and informative business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Fourth Turning Overview - The theory of the Fourth Turning suggests that history moves in predictable cycles of roughly 80 to 100 years, divided into four phases: the High, the Awakening, the Unraveling, and the Fourth Turning [1] - Fourth Turnings are periods of deep crisis that reshape society, often involving wars, revolutions, economic crashes, or widespread social unrest [1] - The current Fourth Turning is driven by economic imbalances, political and social fragmentation, geopolitical shifts with China's rise, and a generational transition [2] Economic Implications - Decades of economic imbalance, fueled by debt accumulation and low interest rates, have created a fragile system [1] - Governments may resort to inflating away debts, which benefits them but erodes citizens' savings and purchasing power [2] - Financial repression, where investors are forced to hold government debt despite diminishing values, may be implemented [2] Geopolitical Risks - Tensions between the US and China, particularly over Taiwan, could escalate into conflict, disrupting global supply chains and financial markets [2] - Polarization between Western nations and the BRICS countries is an early sign of this geopolitical shift [2] Investment Strategies - Bonds could become a risky bet due to inflation and rising yields [3] - Tangible sectors like infrastructure, defense, commodities, manufacturing, and energy may outperform growth-focused tech stocks [3] - Precious metals like gold and silver historically perform well during inflation and currency devaluation [3] - Cryptocurrencies with genuine real-world adoption are more likely to survive the upcoming bear market [3] - Geographic diversification is critical to avoid capital controls [4]

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Market Overview - WTI crude oil initially rose by approximately 1%, reaching $65.77, but later declined from around $75 following geopolitical tensions [1] - WTI experienced a 7% increase for the month but a 9% decrease for the quarter, marking the fourth negative price decline in the last five quarters [2] - Natural gas prices decreased by 16% for the quarter, while Arub gasoline prices fell by 9% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Oil supply is projected to grow four times faster than global oil demand this year [4] - Strong supply growth is expected from OPEC+ countries reversing post-pandemic production cuts, as well as from countries like Brazil, Guana, Norway, and Kazakhstan bringing offshore projects online [4] - US shale supply remains robust, with recent readings showing all-time highs [4] - Global oil demand is growing by approximately 600 thousand barrels per day (KBD) this year [6] Price Forecast and Influencing Factors - Goldman Sachs anticipates a further $10 downside for crude oil prices over the next 12 months due to strong supply [5] - A weaker dollar is expected to boost global oil demand by 300-400 KBD [10] - Recession risk in the US is estimated to be around 30% over the next 12 months, potentially impacting oil demand [7] Commodity Divergence - The analysis suggests the most upside potential for gold and US copper prices, while anticipating downside for oil [11] - China's commodity demand is becoming increasingly divergent, with strong power and copper demand growth but a peak in oil demand and weak LNG gas imports [12]

Group 1 - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macro, international equities, commodities, tech, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to guide investors of all levels [1] - The platform offers features such as a portfolio, weekly market updates, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room for investor engagement [1] - James Foord, an economist with a decade of experience in global market analysis, leads The Pragmatic Investor, emphasizing the creation of diversified portfolios to preserve and grow wealth [1]

Group 1 - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macro, international equities, commodities, tech, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to guide investors in their investment journey [1] - The platform offers features such as a portfolio, weekly market updates, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room for investor engagement [1] - James Foord, an economist with a decade of experience in global market analysis, leads The Pragmatic Investor, emphasizing the creation of diversified portfolios to preserve and grow wealth [1]

Core Viewpoint - OSCR is identified as a company with significant potential, and despite a recent substantial stock rally, it is still considered undervalued [1]. Group 1 - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macro trends, international equities, commodities, technology, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to assist investors at all levels [1]. - The investment group emphasizes building robust and diversified portfolios to preserve and increase wealth over time [1]. Group 2 - The article is authored by an economist with a decade of experience analyzing global markets, leading to insights on investment opportunities [1].

Group 1 - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macroeconomic trends, international equities, commodities, technology, and cryptocurrencies to guide investors [1] - The platform offers features such as a portfolio, weekly market updates, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room for investor engagement [1] - James Foord, an economist with a decade of experience in global market analysis, leads The Pragmatic Investor, emphasizing the importance of building diversified portfolios to preserve and grow wealth [1]

ETF Market Trends & Flows - VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) took in $14.5 billion last week, while IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) experienced outflows of $22.6 billion [2] - BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) also saw inflows, indicating appetite for bonds [2] - QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) experienced outflows of $1.9 billion [3] - ETFs charging 10 basis points or less are receiving less than half of the flows so far this year, a shift from previous years [22] - Leveraged ETF trade volume is near a record [23] Active vs Passive ETFs - Active ETFs now represent 51% of the marketplace, overtaking passively managed strategies in terms of the number of products [4] - Active ETFs are capturing 40% of net flows despite representing only 10% of assets, and are the majority of new launches [17] - BlackRock is one of the largest holders of active ETFs and has about 27 active ETF providers in its model portfolios [18][19] Investment Strategies & Portfolio Allocation - BlackRock rebalanced portfolios, increasing active bets on the equity overweight, specifically on the active ETF side [7] - BlackRock maintains treasuries as part of the risk-off portion of its portfolio but has recently added international developed bonds [12] - BlackRock added a 1% to 2% allocation to IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) in portfolios that invest in alternatives [20] - Commodities should have a constant allocation in a portfolio to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk [35][36] Oil Market & Geopolitical Risks - The conflict between Iran and Israel has been boosting crude energy prices [33] - The Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO) tracks futures contracts on WTI and mitigates negative roll yield, with $224 million in total assets and a 076% expense ratio [31] - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine, highlight the importance of having commodities like DBO in a portfolio [39] European Market - European defense is a growing theme, with $11 billion invested in the area due to the situation with Russia, Ukraine, and increased defense spending [26] - Year-to-date, Europe is up 23% while the U S is up 3% [28]

Market Reaction to Middle East Flare-Ups - The market initially reacts with a knee-jerk reaction to destabilizing events, but the impact should fade fairly quickly [6][7][9][14] - Historically, flare-ups in the Middle East have presented buying opportunities [2] - The market's price action suggests it is not overreacting, focusing on the broader theme that this will pass [14] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices surged, reaching the highest level since January, potentially driven by prior knowledge of events [1][3] - Some analysts suggest selling the oil price pop, indicating a belief that the surge is temporary [2][3] - Saudi Arabia may act to lower oil prices, and the Fed is unlikely to let oil prices derail their plans, viewing the impact as transitory [4][5] - A closure of the Strait of Hormuz could potentially lead to oil prices rising to $100 [8] - Higher oil prices could act as a tax on consumers, crowd out spending, and potentially cause headline CPI to reaccelerate [15][16] Investment Strategies - Oil and gas can serve as a portfolio diversifier, with some portfolios allocating around 5% to high-quality oil and gas companies [7] - Gold is also considered a good diversifier and a long-term investment [7] - For traders, it's important to capitalize on moves in crude oil and gold, but also be ready for changes in the news flow [24][26] - Some investors are monetizing call spreads in crude oil and gold ahead of the weekend [22] - Diversified portfolios may include exposure to gold miners, mid-stream energy, and commodities, comprising about 10% of the portfolio [26] Geopolitical Considerations - Negotiations between the US and China have significant implications for the global economy [12] - Escalation involving the US and China could prolong the impact of the conflict [13] - The lack of a positive reaction in treasuries, despite moves in the dollar and gold, raises questions about US exceptionalism [18]